Iberian extreme precipitation 1855/1856: an analysis from early instrumental observations and documentary sources

Domínguez‐Castro, Fernando; Ramos, Alexandre M.; García‐Herrera, Ricardo; Trigo, Ricardo M.

doi:10.1002/joc.3973

Cited by 16 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…3b, c, f, g). Supporting this result, previous studies have reported above average rainfall in Lisbon between 1864 and 1875, as well as unusually wet years in the Iberian Peninsula, such as 1856 (Kutiel and Trigo 2014;Domínguez-Castro et al 2015).…”

Section: General Overviewsupporting

confidence: 73%

New observational insights into the atmospheric circulation over the Euro-Atlantic sector since 1685

et al. 2019

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Wind direction kept in ships' logbooks is a consolidated but underexploited observational source of relevant climatic information. In this paper, we present four indices of the monthly frequency of wind direction, one for each cardinal direction: Northerly (NI), Easterly (EI), Southerly (SI) and Westerly (WI), based on daily wind direction observations taken aboard ships over the English Channel. These Directional Indices (DIs) are the longest observational record of atmospheric circulation to date at the daily scale, covering the 1685-2014 period. DIs anomalies are associated with near-surface climatic signals over large areas of Europe in all seasons, with zonal indices (WI and EI) and meridional indices (NI and SI) often affecting different regions. Statistical models including all DIs are able to explain a considerable amount of European climate variability, in most cases higher than that accounted for by the North Atlantic Oscillation. As such, the DIs are able to reproduce the known European climatic history and provide new insights of certain episodes from monthly to multi-decadal time scales such as the warm winter decade of 1730-1739 or the extremely cold 1902 summer. The DIs show the potential to better constrain the atmospheric circulation response to external forcings and its associated anomalies. In particular, we provide first observational evidences of all year-round atmospheric circulation signals following the strongest tropical volcanic eruptions of the last three centuries. These signatures are more complex than previously thought and suggest that the well-reported winter warming and summer cooling cannot be simply interpreted in terms of changes in zonality.

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Section: General Overviewsupporting

confidence: 73%

New observational insights into the atmospheric circulation over the Euro-Atlantic sector since 1685

et al. 2019

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“…This classification of atmospheric circulation into CWTs was first developed for the British Isles by Lamb (1972) and, later on, it was improved for an objective automated classification by Jenkinson and Collison (1977). This automated methodology was later applied for different areas in the Iberian Peninsula (e.g., Trigo and DaCamara, 2000;Paredes et al, 2006;Garcia-Herrera et al, 2007;Domínguez-Castro et al, 2014;Russo et al, 2014). In this work, prevailing CWTs at regional scale where determined using the simple Geostrophic approximation according to the methodology proposed by Trigo and DaCamara (2000).…”

Section: Circulation Weather Type Classificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

The influence of circulation weather patterns at different spatial scales on drought variability in the Iberian Peninsula

Russo

Gouveia

Trigo

et al. 2015

Front. Environ. Sci.

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Europe has suffered several extreme weather events which were responsible for considerable ecological and economic losses in the last few decades. In Southern Europe, droughts are one of the most frequent extreme weather events, causing severe damages and various fatalities. The main goal of this study is to determine the role of Circulation Weather Types (CWT) on spatial and temporal variability of droughts by means of the multi-scalar Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). This study aims also to identify the main CWTs associated with winter and summer droughts over different regions of Iberian Peninsula. During the period between 1950 and 2012, the most frequent CWTs were found to be the Anticyclonic (A), Cyclonic (C), North (N) and Northeast (NE) types. The trend analysis for winter season shows a clear increase of frequency CWTs associated to dry events (A, East and Southeast) and a decrease of frequency of C and northern types while in summer a clear decrease of NE is observed. The spatial patterns of correlation between SPEI and CWT show large patterns of negative correlations with winter frequencies of A and eastern weather types, while the reverse occurs with C and western types. This feature is highlighted on a regional approach. The NE type presents negative correlations in Central, Northwestern and Southwestern regions during winter and positive correlations in Eastern region during summer. In opposition, the West type presents positive correlations in all regions (except Eastern region) during winter and does not present significant correlations during summer. In general, the predominant CWT associated to winter or summer drought conditions differs greatly between regions. The winter droughts are associated mainly with high frequency of E types and low frequency of W types for all areas, while the summer drought in eastern sectors are linked with low frequency of C type, as well as the western regions are related with the N type.

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“…Within the Iberian Peninsula several studies have applied LWTs to precipitation (Cortesi et al, 2014(Cortesi et al, , 2013Domínguez-Castro et al, 2015;Paredes et al, 2006). For example, Cortesi et al 2014and Paredes et al (2006) clearly show that much of the rainfall falling into the Iberian peninsula is driven by few LWTs, with the westerly, south-westerly and cyclonic being the most predominant ones.…”

Section: Weather Patternsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Concurrent Hydroclimatic Hazards from Catchment to Global Scales

Luca¹

2020

Preprint

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Interactions between multiple hazards can cause socio-economic damages that exceed those expected by the individual hazard components. Over the past decade, the multi-hazards paradigm has emerged to the extent that the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 advocated a multi-hazard approach. This thesis examines three types of concurrent hydroclimatic hazards that can occur at catchment to global scales. The first multi-hazard is the link between multi-basin flooding (MBF) and extra-tropical cyclones (ETCs) over Great Britain during the period 1975-2014. Results show that during the most geographically widespread MBF episode, up to 108 river catchments (or ~46% of the study area) recorded a peak flow annual maximum within a 16-day window. Most extreme MBF episodes were linked to cyclonic Lamb Weather Types (LWTs), atmospheric rivers and very severe gales. These episodes were associated with significant socio-economic impacts due to widespread flooding. The second hazard was observed (1971-2000) and projected (2011-2100) LWTs, whose seasonal frequency and persistence are associated with multi-hazards over the British Isles. Daily sea-level-pressure data from two reanalyses products, one subjective weather pattern catalogue and an ensemble of 10 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) were used to compute LWTs. Results showed that the AOGCMs are overall able to reproduce historical weather pattern persistence, which, along with annual frequency, is projected to significantly increase anticyclonic and decrease cyclonic LWTs, in summer and autumn respectively. This implies a higher risk of drought, heatwaves and air pollution events in summer but reduced likelihood of flooding and severe gales in autumn by the end of the 21st century. By 2100, the AOGCMs suggest an increased risk of concurrent flood-wind hazards during winter. In summer, the strength of the nocturnal Urban Heat Island (UHI) of London is expected to intensify by the end of the century, contributing to higher chances of combined heatwave-air pollution events. The third type of multi-hazard investigated was the spatio-temporal concurrence of global wet and dry hydrological extremes, during the 1950-2014 period. The analysis was conducted using the monthly self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index based on the Penman-Monteith model (sc_PDSI_pm). Results showed that the land area impacted by extreme dry and wet-dry events significantly increased over the observational period. The most geographically widespread wet-dry event covered a total area of 21 million km2 (or 14% of the global land area) with documented flood and drought impacts over diverse regions. Two new metrics were developed to provide more insight into the combined wet and dry hazards: the wet-dry (WD) ratio and the extreme transitions (ET) time interval. The former quantifies the predominance of wet or dry extremes over a given area, whereas the ET measures the average separation time between the opposite extremes (i.e. between wet to dry or dry to wet transitions). The WD-ratio reveals a predominance of wet over dry extremes in the USA, northern and southern south America, northern Europe, north Africa, western China and most of Australia. The ET median for wet to dry is ~27 months, and 21 months for dry to wet. Global correlations between wet-dry hydrological extremes and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and American Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) were also investigated. ENSO and PDO showed similar correlation patterns, with the former significantly impacting a larger area. On the other hand, the AMO showed an almost inverse spatial correlation pattern, with an overall larger area impacted. The findings presented in this thesis could be informative for emergency responders and relief agencies, disaster risk reduction practitioners, and (re)insurance companies. For instance, multi-basin flooding co-occurring with ETCs could overwhelm emergency response that depends on support from neighbouring regions that are similarly affected. Economic damages could exceed those insured by households and businesses. Projected rises in nocturnal UHI intensity in London could exacerbate heat-stress and, when combined with episodes of poor air quality, increase the likelihood of health problems amongst vulnerable groups. Furthermore, concurrent wet and dry hydrological extremes could be significant for organizations with global assets or sensitive supply chains, and the hydropower, agricultural and transport sectors. Global maps generated of major wet-dry events and the WD-ratio could also be integrated into a seasonal forecasting product, to help stakeholders in hedging the risk. Key opportunities for further research on multi-hazards are future hydroclimatic projections in the light of anthropogenic climate change and the application of new statistical techniques that could help in discerning the driving physical processes.

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Iberian extreme precipitation 1855/1856: an analysis from early instrumental observations and documentary sources

Cited by 16 publications

References 37 publications

New observational insights into the atmospheric circulation over the Euro-Atlantic sector since 1685

New observational insights into the atmospheric circulation over the Euro-Atlantic sector since 1685

The influence of circulation weather patterns at different spatial scales on drought variability in the Iberian Peninsula

Concurrent Hydroclimatic Hazards from Catchment to Global Scales

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