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            :Population Density and Growth

Foerster, Heinz von; Mora, Patricia Montero; Amiot, Lawrence W.

doi:10.1126/science.133.3468.1932

Cited by 9 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…embodying the concept that a larger population offers more opportunities for finding exceptionally talented-people who will make important innovations and that new knowledge is obtained by leveraging existing knowledge. Eliminating Y (t) and A(t) between (13)(14)(15) gives the equation for the total population:…”

Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This rapidly accelerating growth has raised sincere worries about its sustainability as well as concerns that we humans as a result might cause severe and irreversible damage to eco-systems, global weather systems etc [6,22]. At, what one may say the other extreme, the optimists expect that the innovative spirit of mankind will be able to solve the problems associated with a continuing increase in the growth rate [15,46]. Specifically, they believe that the world economic development will continue as a successive unfolding of revolutions, e.g., the Internet, bio-technological and other yet unknown innovations, replacing the prior agricultural, industrial, medical and information revolutions of the past.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Finite-time singularity in the dynamics of the world population, economic and financial indices

Johansen

Sornette

2001

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications

177

154

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Contrary to common belief, both the Earth's human population and its economic output have grown faster than exponential, i.e., in a super-Malthusian mode, for most of the known history. These growth rates are compatible with a spontaneous singularity occuring at the same critical time 2052 ± 10 signaling an abrupt transition to a new regime. The degree of abruptness can be infered from the fact that the maximum of the world population growth rate was reached in 1970, i.e., about 80 before the predicted singular time, corresponding to approximately 4% of the studied time interval over which the acceleration is documented. This rounding-off of the finite-time singularity is probably due to a combination of wellknown finite-size effects and friction and suggests that we have already entered the transition region to a new regime. In theoretical support, a multivariate analysis coupling population, capital, R&D and technology shows that a dramatic acceleration in the population during most of the timespan can occur even though the isolated dynamics do not exhibit it. Possible scenarios for the cross-over and the new regime are discussed. IntroductionBoth the world economy as well as the human population have grown at a tremendous pace especially during the last two centuries. It is estimated that 2000 years ago the population of the world was approximately 300 million and for a long time the world population did not grow significantly, since periods of growth were followed by periods of decline. It took more than 1600 years for the world population to double to 600 million and since then the growth has accelerated. It reached 1 billion in 1804 (204 years later), 2 billion in 1927 (123 years later), 3 billion in 1960 (33 years later), 4 billion in 1974 (14 years later), 5 billion in 1987 (13 years later) and 6 billion in 1999 (12 years later). This rapidly accelerating growth has raised sincere worries about its sustainability as well as concerns that we humans as a result might cause severe and irreversible damage to eco-systems, global weather systems etc [6,22]. At, what one may say the other extreme, the optimists expect that the innovative spirit of mankind will be able to solve the problems associated with a continuing increase in the growth rate [15,46]. Specifically, they believe that the world economic development will continue as a successive unfolding of revolutions, e.g., the Internet, bio-technological and other yet unknown innovations, replacing the prior agricultural, industrial, medical and information revolutions of the past. Irrespective of the interpretation, the important point is the presence of an acceleration in the growth rate. Here, it is first shown that, contrary to common belief, both the Earth human population as well as its economic output have grown faster that exponential for most of the known history and most strikingly so in the last centuries. Furthermore, we will show that both the population growth rate and the economic growth rate are consistent with a spontaneous singula...

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Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%