<i>Response</i>
            : Doomsday

Foerster, Heinz von; Mora, Patricia Montero; Amiot, Lawrence W.

doi:10.1126/science.133.3456.943

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Demographic Transition As a Phase Transition1

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2009

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“…were noticed long ago 17,21 . The extrapolated divergence of the human population growth rate at years 2026-2040 has been also interpreted as some kind of transition 1,15,20 . However, the growth rate divergence appears only in the "mean-field" models.…”

Section: Demographic Transition As a Phase Transitionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Models of the World human population growth- critical analysis

Golosovsky

2009

Preprint

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Section: Demographic Transition As a Phase Transitionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Models of the World human population growth- critical analysis

Golosovsky

2009

Preprint

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The scientific revolution in demography

Umpleby

1990

Popul Environ

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Space science strategy

Fraser–Smith

1989

EoS Transactions

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The headline to a recent news article read “NASA Focuses on Station, Faces Growing Budget Crisis” [Covault, 1989], which I thought summarized NASA's present and probable future succinctly. The article was unusual: it not only discussed NASA's budget options through 2000, a long time by the normal standards of these discussions, but it also pointed out that “major design decisions over the next two years will be critical to constructing a [space] station that will endure 30 years.” Imagine trying to think 30–40 years ahead in the space program to a time in the middle 2020s when the station will presumably cease to endure! As I will try to show, however, it is crucial for those of us in the space program to think ahead for those 30–40 years if we are going to interpret correctly the events already beginning to shape the program for those years and which must soon begin to have a dramatic effect on its viability.

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Response : Doomsday

Cited by 7 publications

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Models of the World human population growth- critical analysis

Models of the World human population growth- critical analysis

The scientific revolution in demography

Space science strategy

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