I Discovered the Phillips Curve: "A Statistical Relation between Unemployment and Price Changes"

Fisher, Irving

doi:10.1086/260048

Cited by 107 publications

(111 citation statements)

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“…Tanto este autor como Fisher (1926) y Samuelson y Solow (1960) documentan la existencia de una relación empírica inversa entre alguna medida de inflación y la tasa de desempleo. Posteriormente, son incontables los artículos en que se debate y argumenta en favor y en contra de la existencia, estabilidad y utilidad, o ambas de este tipo de relaciones.…”

Section: El Escaso Poder Predictivo De Simples Curvas De Phillips En unclassified

El escaso poder predictivo de simples curvas de Phillips en Chile

Brown

Hurtado

2016

Revista De La CEPAL

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RESUMENEn este trabajo se explora la existencia, robustez y magnitud del eventual aporte que puedan tener diversas medidas de actividad en la tarea de predecir inflación en Chile, sobre la base de algunas versiones retrospectivas (backward-looking) de curvas de Phillips estimadas tanto con datos revisados como con datos en tiempo real. Los principales resultados confirman los hallazgos de la literatura reciente a nivel internacional: el aporte predictivo de las medidas de actividad aquí consideradas es episódico, inestable y de magnitud moderada. Este precario aporte predictivo es robusto a la utilización de datos definitivos y en tiempo real.

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Section: El Escaso Poder Predictivo De Simples Curvas De Phillips En unclassified

El escaso poder predictivo de simples curvas de Phillips en Chile

Brown

Hurtado

2016

Revista De La CEPAL

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“…From his very first published paper (Tobin [1941]) to some of the last he wrote (Tobin [1995]), Tobin addressed the issue of the failure of labour markets to clear. He always retained the view that Phillips curves (strictly speaking the Phillips curve should be called the Fisher [1926] curve) were non-vertical in the run relevant for the design and implementation of stabilisation policy (see e.g. Tobin [1967b, 33 Balancing the budget continuously requires some contingent response of spending and/or tax rates to shocks to and fluctuations in tax bases.…”

Section: Market Failurementioning

confidence: 99%

James Tobin: An Appreciation of his Contribution to Economics

Buiter¹

2003

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Jim Tobin, who died on March 11, 2002 at the age of 84, was one of giants of economics of the second half of the twentieth century and the greatest macroeconomist of his generation. Tobin's influence on macroeconomic theory is so pervasive -so much part of our professional 'acquis' -that many younger economists often are not even aware that it is his ideas they are elaborating, testing, criticising, refuting or re-inventing. In this Appreciation, I consider Tobin's scholarly contributions, made over a period of more than 50 years.Tobin received the 1981 Nobel Memorial Prize "for his analysis of financial markets and their relations to expenditure decisions, employment, production and prices". I consider his contributions to mean-variance portfolio demand and asset pricing theory, especially the Portfolio Separation Theorem; pitfalls in financial model building; portfolio balance and flow of funds models and the 'credit channel'; the life-cycle model and social security; econometric methodology, including the Tobit estimator and his pioneering work using both time series and cross-sectional data to estimate food demand functions; economic growth; Tobin's q; the 'Tobin Tax'; the monetary and fiscal policy (Tobin [1986b, p. 113]). Perhaps; but more rare even is the young student of economics taking his first tentative steps as a professional economist who, on becoming acquainted with Tobin, in person or through his writings, did not feel better about his choice of profession.With one exception, the scope of what follows is restricted to Tobin's published scholarly contributions. The exception is an attempt to combine Tobin's 2 Tobin wrote more than 500 papers, and it is impossible to provide a comprehensive overview in a single review article. Grossman [1975] is an interesting review of the first of Tobin's Essays in Economics ). Both Grossman [1982] and Lucas [1981b] contain critical reviews of Tobin [1980]. 3 published writings on social security reform with my distillation of some of Tobin's lecture notes on the subject -one that illustrates well both the intellectual rigour and the moral and political engagement of the man. Liquidity Preference, Separation and Asset PricingTobin received the 1981 Nobel Memorial Prize "for his analysis of financial markets and their relations to expenditure decisions, employment, production and prices". With Harry Markowitz [1952 he developed what became the foundations of modern portfolio theory 3 . The key 'separation theorem' proven by Tobin [1958b], is that in a world with one safe asset and a large number of risky assets, portfolio choice by any risk-averse portfolio holder can be described as a choice between the safe asset and the same portfolio of risky assets. The ratio of the shares in the total portfolio accounted for by any pair of risky assets is the same for all risk-averse portfolio holders. The degree of risk aversion only determines the shares in the total portfolio accounted for by the safe asset and by the common portfolio of risky assets. This is...

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“…Thus this relationship requires a more detailed discussion than does the Phillips curve. We refer to this relationship as a Fisher curve after Irving Fisher's (1926) analysis of regressions showing a strong positive relationship between a distributed lag on product prices and the level of employment. Fisher's explanation for this empirical result focused on the effects of demand increases relative to wage levels.…”

Section: Regional Labor Market Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wage Flexibility and Unemployment Dynamics

Hyclak¹,

Johnes²

1992

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I Discovered the Phillips Curve: "A Statistical Relation between Unemployment and Price Changes"

Cited by 107 publications

References 0 publications

El escaso poder predictivo de simples curvas de Phillips en Chile

El escaso poder predictivo de simples curvas de Phillips en Chile

James Tobin: An Appreciation of his Contribution to Economics

Wage Flexibility and Unemployment Dynamics

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