Ageratina adenophoraandLantana camarain Kailash Sacred Landscape, India: Current distribution and future climatic scenarios through modeling

Abstract

The western Himalayan region is one of the unique biodiversity hotspots is rapidly getting invaded by alien invasive species and become a major management concern to save many economically and culturally important indigenous endemic species of this region. The present study aims to investigate the probable current and future apposite invaded habitat of Eupatorium ( Ageratina adenophora ) and Lantana ( Lantana camara ) in the Kailash Sacred Landscape-India in response to representative concentration pathways (RCP) 8.5 of global climate change. Intensive field surveys were conducted to collect the presence locations of Eupatorium ( n = 400 ) and Lantana ( n = 250 ) along the altitudinal gradient of 300 to 2500 masl that covers diverse vegetation and landscape features. We performed Principle Component Analysis to nullify the multi-colinearity effect of the environmental predictors followed by M axEnt species distribution model in the current and future climatic scenario of both the species. All current and future model precision for both these species was higher than 0.81 with the area under the curve (AUC). If the climate change continues to follow the higher emission RCP8.5 pathway, Eupatorium will spread 45.3% more of its current distribution area and will spread up to 3024 masl. Whereas, Lantana will spread 29.8% more of its current distribution area and will reach up to 3018 masl. The further distribution of this alien species may cause a serious threat to the local biodiversity results into a change in ecosystem processes and reduced ecosystem services in the area. Therefore, our current and the projected future map of their distribution will be helpful for local managers to take necessary action to overcome the adverse effect of this plant invasion in future.

Actions to halt biodiversity loss generally benefit the climate

“…This initiative has great potential to generate climate change mitigation and adaptation co‐benefits through carbon sequestration and storage in natural systems—in forests, rangelands and soils (Aryal et al, 2018 ; Joshi et al, 2019 ; Liniger et al, 2020 ; Uddin et al, 2015 ). In addition, the initiative has benefited local and distant users through a range of NCP, such as timber, fodder, fuel wood, medicinal plants, water (Badola et al, 2017 ; Chaudhary et al, 2020 ; Liniger et al, 2020 ; Nepal et al, 2018 ; Tewari et al, 2020 ; Thapa et al, 2018 ), protection of Kailash Mountain and Mansarovar (cultural/religious sites), and the promotion of eco‐tourism (Adler et al, 2013 ; Pandey et al, 2016 ). Kailash Sacred Landscape also benefits distant downstream users through the (continued) provision of flowing waters for irrigation and other purposes (including hydro‐power generation) by protecting the sources.…”