Hypothetical scenarios of microplastics propagation in Lake Baikal

Abstract

This work is a continuation of the study on modeling the propagation of microplastic (MP) in Lake Baikal. A threedimensional Eulerian type model, represented by the advection-diffusion-reaction equation, is used to simulate the behavior of MP in the lake. To set the hydrodynamic background, a three-dimensional model of the hydrothermodynamics of the lake in a non-hydrostatic approximation is used. Some "climatic" scenarios of atmospheric influence are compiled to be used for MP propagation modeling. In addition to the traditional approach based on direct (forward in time) modeling, we consider its combination with inverse modeling methods, assuming to solve the actual problems of sensitivity, optimization and control, which are important in environmental protection and design. Based on hydrodynamic scenarios, we formulate some inverse problems for assessing the fate of MP in the lake. In particular, two hypothetical scenarios are considered to assess the informational significance of the virtual monitoring networks that "observe" the spread of MP in the lake.