Hypothetical Retrospection

Hansson, Oskar

doi:10.1007/s10677-006-9045-3

Cited by 27 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Convergence seminars are based on a theoretical approach to rational decision-making under risk and uncertainty that has been described more in detail in a recent article by one of the authors [8]. Like many other philosophical ideas, it consists in the refinement and systematic application of a pattern of argumentation that is prevalent in non-philosophical discussions.…”

Section: Theoretical Background To the Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

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European Public Advice on Nanobiotechnology—Four Convergence Seminars

Godman

Hansson

2009

Nanoethics

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In order to explore public views on nanobiotechnology (NBT), convergence seminars were held in four places in Europe; namely in Visby (Sweden), Sheffield (UK), Lublin (Poland), and Porto (Portugal). A convergence seminar is a new form of public participatory activity that can be used to deal systematically with the uncertainty associated for instance with the development of an emerging technology like nanobiotechnology. In its first phase, the participants are divided into three "scenario groups" that discuss different future scenarios. In the second phase, the participants are regrouped into three "convergence groups", each of which contains representatives from each of the three groups from the first phase. In the final third phase, all participants meet for a summary discussion. This pilot project had two aims: (1) to develop and assess the new methodology and (2) to gather advice and recommendations from the public that may be useful for future decisions on nanobiotechnology (NBT). Participants emphasized that they wanted the technology to focus on solutions to environmental and medical problems and to meet the needs of developing countries. The need for further public participation and deliberation on NBT issues seemed to be acknowledged by all participants. Many of them also raised equality concerns. Views on the means by which NBT should be steered into socially useful directions were more divided. In particular, different views were expressed on how much regulation of company activities is needed to curb unwanted developments. The participants' responses in a questionnaire indicate that the methodology of the convergence seminars was successful for decision-making under uncertainty. In particular, the participants stated that their advice was influenced both by access to different possible future developments and by the points of view of their coparticipants, which is what the method is specifically intended to achieve.

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Section: Theoretical Background To the Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The reason for our choice and development of this methodology is that it combines public participation with a systematic approach to the uncertainty associated with the development of NBT. The theoretical basis of the convergence seminars is a model of decision-making called hypothetical retrospection (see the following section for more detail) [8].…”

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confidence: 99%

European Public Advice on Nanobiotechnology—Four Convergence Seminars

Godman

Hansson

2009

Nanoethics

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“…Such a framework can be obtained by systematizing a common type of argument in everyday discussions about future possibilities, namely arguments that refer to how one might in the future come to evaluate the possible actions under consideration. (p. 638) Calling this view "hypothetical retrospection," Hansson (2007aHansson ( , 2007b believes that thought experiments are ways to develop more defensible rational argu-270 ments for potentially risky decisions. He argues that standard risk assessment and the precautionary principle fail to protect us on the one hand, or allow us to make any decisions on the other, by focusing in terms of ideal/best-case scenarios.…”

Section: Medical Apps Spring 2013 • Volume 56 Numbermentioning

confidence: 99%

Medical Apps: Public and Academic Perspectives

Krieger

2013

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Medical apps have featured in popular websites and mainstream news media in recent months. However, there has been almost no mention of these tools in journals focusing on relevant ethical or social issues, including conflict of interest, the role of politics in science, and technological oversight. This essay examines the role that these philosophical issues might play in answering both public and academic questions about these pieces of emergent technology.

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“…Moral philosophers have developed and systematized the first of these perspective-extending thought patterns, the use of other persons' perspectives. We also need to systematize the second, the contemplation of future perspectives (Hansson 2007a).…”

Section: Step 5: Hypothetical Retrospectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coping with the Unpredictable Effects of Future Technologies

Hansson

2011

Philos. Technol.

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Available methods such as technology assessment and risk analysis have failed to predict the effects of technological choices. We need to give up the futile predictive ambitions of previous approaches and instead base decisions on systematic studies of alternative future developments. It will then be necessary to cope with mere possibility arguments, i.e., arguments in which a conclusion is drawn from a mere possibility that a course of action may have certain consequences. A five-step procedure is proposed for the assessment of such arguments. It includes (1) a search for mere possibility arguments pointing in different directions, (2) a scientific evaluation that may lead to the specification or refutation of some of these arguments, (3) two symmetry tests, (4) evaluation of the seriousness of the arguments in terms of novelty, spatio-temporal unlimitedness and interference with complex systems, and (5) hypothetical retrospection that aims at finding a course of action that will be defensible in retrospect.

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Hypothetical Retrospection

Cited by 27 publications

References 25 publications

European Public Advice on Nanobiotechnology—Four Convergence Seminars

European Public Advice on Nanobiotechnology—Four Convergence Seminars

Medical Apps: Public and Academic Perspectives

Coping with the Unpredictable Effects of Future Technologies

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