The optimal acid base status for survival in maintenance hemo‐dialysis (MHD) patients (pts) remains controversial. According to some reports acidosis is associated with improved survival in MHD pts, i.e., reverse epidemiology. We examined associations between baseline (first 3‐month averaged) serum bicarbonate (HCO3), divided into 12 categories, and 2‐yr mortality in 56,376 MHD pts across the US after controlling for confounding effects of malnutrition‐inflammation complex syndrome (MICS). Three sets of Cox regression models were evaluated to estimate hazard ratios (HR) of death and 95% confidence intervals (CI): (1) Unadjusted; (2) Multivariate adjusted for case‐mix (age, gender, diabetes, race, insurance, marital status, vintage, standardized mortality ratio, residual renal function, dialysate HCO3, and Kt/V); and (3) Additional adjustments for 8 markers of MICS (body mass index, serum albumin, creatinine, ferritin, TIBC, dietary protein intake, WBC and lymphocyte counts). See Figure for HR and 95% CI:
We conclude that, although high HCO3 levels appear to be associated with increased mortality in MHD pts, this paradoxical effect is almost entirely due to the overwhelming impact of MICS on survival.