Hydropower Generation Vulnerability in the Yangtze River in China under Climate Change Scenarios: Analysis Based on the WEAP Model

Abstract

Global warming caused by human activities exacerbates the water cycle, changes precipitation features, such as precipitation amount, intensity and time, and raises uncertainties in water resources. This work uses run-off data obtained using climate change models under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and selects the Yangtze River Basin as the research boundary to evaluate and analyse the vulnerability of hydropower generation in 2016-2050 on the basis of the water evaluation and planning model. Results show that the amount of rainfall during 2016-2050 in the Yangtze River Basin is estimated to increase with fluctuations in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. In the RCP4.5 scenario, hydropower stations exhibit large fluctuations in generating capacity, which present the trend of an increase after a decrease; in the RCP8.5 scenario, the generating capacity of hydropower stations in the Yangtze River Basin presents a steady increase. Over 50% of the generating capacity in the Yangtze River Basin is produced from the Three Gorges Dam and 10 other hydropower stations. Over 90% is generated in eight river basins, including the Jinsha, Ya-lung and Min Rivers. Therefore, climate change may accelerate changes in the Yangtze River Basin and further lead to vulnerability of hydropower generation.

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“…As the riverine ecosystem declines in quality, so does the livelihood of communities that depend on these fisheries for income generation and food. These effects are likely to be intensified with climate change, as water resources become more uncertain [25].…”

Characterization of the evolution of runoff‐sediment relationship in Min River based on coupling coordination theory

“…Soil erosion accounts for a quarter of the whole area of the MRB, and the problem of soil erosion is very serious (Wenlan et al, 2006). In recent decades, the MRB has built a number of cascade hydropower stations on the main stream and tributaries, such as Zipingpu, Pubugou and Gongzui, which have greatly improved the regulation capacity of runoff (Tang et al, 2013; Y. Zhang et al, 2017). Chen and Xu (2006) found that the sediment load in the MRB during 1960–2003 mainly originated from the lower reaches of the MR and its tributaries, the Dadu River and the Qingyi River.…”

Electricity and Climate Change : Seeking for the triple nexus of electrification, climage change mitigation, and climate change adaptation

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“…The study shows contradictory results regarding the power generation between two climate change scenarios. Zhang et al (2017) evaluate the vulnerability of hydropower of the Yangtze river basin to climate change using WEAP and also find large fluctuations in the power generating capacity. Namely, the supply increases under the high-temperature scenario and decreases under the low-temperature scenario, thereby increasing the vulnerability and uncertainties of hydropower supply systems.…”