Hydrological Variability in the El Cielo Biosphere Reserve, Mexico: A Watershed-Scale Analysis Using Tree-Ring Records

Abstract

The El Cielo Biosphere Reserve (CBR) stands as a vital forested region in eastern Mexico due to its high biodiversity in flora and fauna and provision of environmental services. This study established a network of 10 ring-width chronologies of different species within the CBR and adjacent watersheds. The objective was to analyze their climatic response and reconstruct the seasonal streamflow contribution of each sub-basin to the main stream, utilizing data from a gauge network of eight hydrological stations located at strategic locations of the CBR. With chronologies ranging from 116 to 564 years, most exhibited association with the accumulated streamflow between January and June. Based on the adjusted R2, Akaike Information Criteria, and Variance Inflation Factor, the stepwise regression procedure was selected among different statistical methods for developing the reconstruction model. In spite of differences in the seasonal reconstructed periods, all the species showed potential to develop hydrological reconstructions as indicated by their common response to streamflow variability, as occurred in the wet years of 1976, 1993, 2000, and 2008, and dry years of 1980, 1982, 1996, and 2011. It was found that the response of the chronologies to gauge records increased as a function of the chronologies’ interseries correlation, average mean sensitivity, and distance of the tree-ring series to the gauge station. Streamflow reconstructions at the sub-basin level allowed a better understanding of the hydroclimatic variability characterizing the CBR, but also suggested the need to increase the network of chronologies for some particular sub-basins lacking tree-ring series to improve the reconstructed models.