Hydrological response to climate change in a glacierized catchment in the Himalayas

Immerzeel, Walter W.; Beek, L. P. H. van; Konz, M.; Shrestha, A. B.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0143-4

Cited by 408 publications

(315 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Some hydrological studies in glacierized basins calculate glacier retreat based on mass-conserving parameterizations (Huss et al, 2008;Weber et al, 2010;Ragettli et al, 2013), or physical ice flow modeling (Immerzeel et al, 2012). The glacier modules of most hydrological models, however, are static and do not allow a transient simulation of the ice melt contribution (e.g., Schaefli et al, 2005;Rössler et al, 2012;Bavay et al, 2013).…”

Section: Experiments Vi: Glacier Retreatmentioning

confidence: 99%

High uncertainty in 21st century runoff projections from glacierized basins

Huss

Zemp

Joerg

et al. 2014

Journal of Hydrology

102

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Glacier response to a changing climate and its impact on runoff is understood in general terms, but model-based projections are affected by considerable uncertainties. They originate from the driving climate model, input data quality, and simplifications in the glacio-hydrological model and hamper the reliability of the simulations. Here, an integrative assessment of the uncertainty in 21st century glacier runoff is provided based on experiments using the Glacier Evolution Runoff Model (GERM) applied to the catchment of Findelengletscher, Switzerland. GERM is calibrated and validated in a multi-objective approach and is run using nine Regional Climate Models (RCMs) until 2100. Among others, the hydrological impacts of the RCM downscaling procedure, the winter snow accumulation, the surface albedo and the calculation of ice melt and glacier retreat are investigated. All experiments indicate rapid glacier wastage and a transient runoff increase followed by reduced melt season discharge. However, major uncertainties in, e.g., glacier area loss (À100% to À63%) and the change in annual runoff (À57% to +25% relative to today) by 2100 are found. The impact of model assumptions on changes in August runoff is even higher (À94% to À5%). The spread in RCM results accounts for 20-50% of the overall uncertainty in modeled discharge. Initial ice thickness, the amount and spatial distribution of winter snow and the glacier retreat model have the largest effect on the projections, whereas the RCM downscaling procedure, calibration data quality and the melt model (energy balance vs. degree-day approach) are of secondary importance.

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Section: Experiments Vi: Glacier Retreatmentioning

confidence: 99%

High uncertainty in 21st century runoff projections from glacierized basins

Huss

Zemp

Joerg

et al. 2014

Journal of Hydrology

102

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“…Other approaches have been developed in which ice is transported from the accumulation zone to the ablation zone through basal sliding or creep (e.g. Immerzeel et al, 2011Immerzeel et al, , 2013, but, like models of ice flow dynamics, this approach is only applicable for small catchments as it requires modeling at high spatial resolution. In several hydrological models, glaciers are treated as static entities that generate melt water and the glacier extent is modified for the future by making crude assumptions on the ice mass balance (e.g.…”

Section: A F Lutz Et Al: Climate Change Implications For Central Amentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of climate change signals in CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model ensembles and implications for Central Asian glaciers

Lutz

Immerzeel

Gobiet

et al. 2013

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Central Asian water resources largely depend on melt water generated in the Pamir and Tien Shan mountain ranges. To estimate future water availability in this region, it is necessary to use climate projections to estimate the future glacier extent and volume. In this study, we evaluate the impact of uncertainty in climate change projections on the future glacier extent in the Amu and Syr Darya river basins. To this end we use the latest climate change projections generated for the upcoming IPCC report (CMIP5) and, for comparison, projections used in the fourth IPCC assessment (CMIP3). With these projections we force a regionalized glacier mass balance model, and estimate changes in the basins' glacier extent as a function of the glacier size distribution in the basins and projected temperature and precipitation. This glacier mass balance model is specifically developed for implementation in large scale hydrological models, where the spatial resolution does not allow for simulating individual glaciers and data scarcity is an issue. Although the CMIP5 ensemble results in greater regional warming than the CMIP3 ensemble and the range in projections for temperature as well as precipitation is wider for the CMIP5 than for the CMIP3, the spread in projections of future glacier extent in Central Asia is similar for both ensembles. This is because differences in temperature rise are small during periods of maximum melt (July-September) while differences in precipitation change are small during the period of maximum accumulation (October-February). However, the model uncertainty due to parameter uncertainty is high, and has roughly the same importance as uncertainty in the climate projections. Uncertainty about the size of the decline in glacier extent remains large, making estimates of future Central Asian glacier evolution and downstream water availability uncertain.

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“…Himalayan glaciers have generated a lot of concern in the last few years, particularly with respect to potential consequences of glacier changes on the regional water cycle (Kaser et al, 2010;Immerzeel et al, 2010Immerzeel et al, , 2012Racoviteanu et al, 2013a). In the last decades, the availability of low-cost data from optical remote sensing platforms with global coverage provided opportunities for glacier mapping at regional scales.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial patterns in glacier characteristics and area changes from 1962 to 2006 in the Kanchenjunga–Sikkim area, eastern Himalaya

et al. 2015

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Abstract. This study investigates spatial patterns in glacier characteristics and area changes at decadal scales in the eastern Himalaya -Nepal (Arun and Tamor basins), India (Teesta basin in Sikkim) and parts of China and Bhutan -based on various satellite imagery: Corona KH4 imagery, Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission Radiometer (ASTER), QuickBird (QB) and WorldView-2 (WV2). We compare and contrast glacier surface area changes over the period of 1962-2000/2006 and their dependency on glacier topography (elevation, slope, aspect, percent debris cover) and climate (solar radiation, precipitation) on the eastern side of the topographic barrier (Sikkim) versus the western side (Nepal).Glacier mapping from 2000 Landsat ASTER yielded 1463 ± 88 km 2 total glacierized area, of which 569 ± 34 km 2 was located in Sikkim and 488 ± 29 km 2 in eastern Nepal. Supraglacial debris covered 11 % of the total glacierized area, and supraglacial lakes covered about 5.8 % of the debris-covered glacier area alone. Glacier area loss (1962 to 2000) was 0.50 ± 0.2 % yr −1 , with little difference between Nepal (0.53 ± 0.2 % yr −1 ) and Sikkim (0.44 ± 0.2 % yr −1 ). Glacier area change was controlled mostly by glacier area, elevation, altitudinal range and, to a smaller extent, slope and aspect. In the Kanchenjunga-Sikkim area, we estimated a glacier area loss of 0.23 ± 0.08 % yr −1 from 1962 to 2006 based on high-resolution imagery. On a glacier-by-glacier basis, clean glaciers exhibit more area loss on average from 1962 to 2006 (34 %) compared to debris-covered glaciers (22 %). Glaciers in this region of the Himalaya are shrinking at similar rates to those reported for the last decades in other parts of the Himalaya, but individual glacier rates of change vary across the study area with respect to local topography, percent debris cover or glacier elevations.

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Hydrological response to climate change in a glacierized catchment in the Himalayas

Cited by 408 publications

References 31 publications

High uncertainty in 21st century runoff projections from glacierized basins

High uncertainty in 21st century runoff projections from glacierized basins

Comparison of climate change signals in CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model ensembles and implications for Central Asian glaciers

Spatial patterns in glacier characteristics and area changes from 1962 to 2006 in the Kanchenjunga–Sikkim area, eastern Himalaya

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