Hydrological response to climate change in the Black Hills of South Dakota, USA

Fontaine, Thomas A.; Klassen, James; Cruickshank, Tyler; Hotchkiss, Rollin H.

doi:10.1080/02626660109492798

Cited by 58 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 40 publications

(31 reference statements)

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“…Regarding maximum values, the pessimistic Scenario A2 gave the most extreme value. These results showing reductions in mean flow for future scenarios correspond to those of Fontaine et al (2009), who evaluated the impacts of climate change on water yields in the Spring Creek basin of the Missouri River in South Dakota, USA. These authors found a reduction of about 39% in mean annual flow.…”

Section: Calibration Of Swatmentioning

confidence: 83%

Assessing the impact of climate change scenarios on water resources in southern Brazil

Perazzoli

Pinheiro

Kaufmann

2013

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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The SWAT hydrological model was applied to analyse the impacts of climate changes on the flow and sediment production regimes in the Concórdia River drainage basin, in southern Brazil. Climate scenarios A2 and B2 of the IPCC were used to simulate basin behaviour over the period 2071-2100 and to compare it with that in the baseline period . Runoff and sediment yield calculated on a monthly basis in the calibration period gave Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients of 0.82 and 0.83, respectively, showing good model fit. Comparison of simulations for scenarios A2 and B2 with the baseline showed a reduction in flow of 39.2% and 41.2%, respectively. Analysis of daily values and extreme events suggested that flood peaks could reach more extreme values in the future, especially under Scenario A2. Time series of rainfall do not show significant departures from basin mean values, although Scenario B2 and, in particular, Scenario A2, show greater maximum values. Sediment production follows the same pattern as basin streamflow.Key words climate change; extreme hydrological events; water regime; SWAT model Evaluation de l'impact des scénarios de changement climatique sur les ressources en eau dans le Brésil méridional Résumé Le but de cette étude était d'appliquer le modèle hydrologique SWAT afin d'analyser les impacts des changements climatiques sur les régimes d'écoulement et de production de sédiments dans le bassin de la rivière Concórdia, dans le Brésil méridional. Les scénarios climatiques A2 et B2 du GIEC ont été utilisés pour simuler le comportement du bassin sur la période 2071-2100 et le comparer au comportement sur la période de référence . Les coefficients de Nash-Sutcliffe sur la période de calage, calculés sur une base mensuelle, ont été de 0,82 et 0,83 respectivement pour les débits et les apports sédimentaires. La comparaison des simulations pour les scénarios A2 et B2 avec la référence a montré des réductions de débit respectives de 39,2% et 41,2%. L'analyse des valeurs journalières et des événements extrêmes a suggéré que les pointes de crue atteindront des valeurs plus importantes à l'avenir, en particulier sous le scénario A2. Les séries chronologiques de précipitations ne montrent pas des écarts significatifs aux valeurs moyennes à l'échelle du bassin, bien que le scénario B2 et particulièrement le scénario A2, montrent des valeurs maximales supérieures. La production en sédiments suit la même comportement que le débit du bassin.

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Section: Calibration Of Swatmentioning

confidence: 83%

Assessing the impact of climate change scenarios on water resources in southern Brazil

Perazzoli

Pinheiro

Kaufmann

2013

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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“…The SWAT model divides the watershed into multiple subwatersheds, which are then further subdivided into hydrologic response units (HRUs) that consist of homogenous land use, management, and soil characteristics. Models calibrated using watershed and water quality data have been used to forecast water quantity/quality in response to climate change scenarios; the SWAT model has been widely used to predict water quantity and quality in response to various management and climate scenarios [40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51].…”

Section: Swat Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment on Hydrologic Response by Climate Change in the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand

Ligaray

Kim²,

Sthiannopkao

et al. 2015

Water

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Abstract:The Chao Phraya River in Thailand has been greatly affected by climate change and the occurrence of extreme flood events, hindering its economic development. This study assessed the hydrological responses of the Chao Phraya River basin under several climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied to simulate the streamflow using meteorological and observed data over a nine-year period from 2003 to 2011. The SWAT model produced an acceptable performance for calibration and validation, yielding Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values greater than 0.5. Precipitation scenarios yielded streamflow variations that corresponded to the change of rainfall intensity and amount of rainfall, while scenarios with increased air temperatures predicted future water shortages. High CO2 concentration scenarios incorporated plant responses that led to a dramatic increase in streamflow. The greenhouse gas emission scenarios increased the streamflow variations to 6.8%, 41.9%, and 38.4% from the reference period (2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011). This study also provided a framework upon which the peak flow can be managed to control the nonpoint sources during wet season. We hope that the future climate scenarios presented in this study could provide predictive information for the river basin.

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“…Studies have reported that an increase in CO 2 under constant temperature and precipitation causes an increase in water yield (Aber et al, 1995;Fontaine et al, 2001;Chaplot, 2007). As future changes in river discharge and watershed hydrology caused by global warming are important factors for water management, many researchers have studied the sensitivity of streamflow and hydrological processes to climate change (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of temperature change on water discharge, and sediment and nutrient loading in the lower Pearl River basin based on SWAT modelling

Chen

Wang

et al. 2011

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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The impact of climate change on hydrological processes and nutrient input is one of the major uncertainties in projecting future global warming. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is applied to simulate the effects of temperature on the hydrology and sediment and nutrient load in the lower Pearl River Basin, South China. Calibration and validation results for SWAT showed that the Yamen estuary is appropriate for simulating the impacts of temperature change on both hydrological processes and nutrient input. The possible temperature change scenarios were set at T-2, T-1.5, T-1, T-0.5, T+0.5, T+1, T+1.5, T+2, T+2.5, T+3 • C compared to the current temperature, T• C. The results showed that the relative variation of discharge with temperature was slight. The sediment load at T+3• C is increased by 13.58% compared to that at T • C. Inorganic N and P inputs to the Yamen estuary showed an increasing trend with the temperature increase from T-2• C to T+3 • C. Global warming can reduce the vegetation land cover by slowing plant growth, which will aggravate the water and soil loss. Temperature changes would have an effect on mineralization and nitrification by changing soil temperature and temperatures. The warming is projected to cause an increase of sediment and nutrient load into the estuary and accelerate eutrophication in the coastal area.

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Hydrological response to climate change in the Black Hills of South Dakota, USA

Cited by 58 publications

References 40 publications

Assessing the impact of climate change scenarios on water resources in southern Brazil

Assessing the impact of climate change scenarios on water resources in southern Brazil

Assessment on Hydrologic Response by Climate Change in the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand

Effects of temperature change on water discharge, and sediment and nutrient loading in the lower Pearl River basin based on SWAT modelling

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