Hydrological model for the forecast of recessive flows: the case of the “Jequetepeque” river, upstream of the Gallito Ciego dam, Peru

Abstract

The research proposes a hydrological model to forecast recessive flows and it estimates a depletion coefficient for the "Jequetepeque" river, water from the top of the "Gallito Ciego",Contumazá, Peru. Recessive flows were used from the third break point of the flow hydrograph of the "Yonán" station of the "Jequetepeque" river, period 1988-2019. An exponential category hydrological model (ALVI) was used. Ranges of depletion coefficients 0.0148 < α < 0.0003 day-1, and a calibration coefficient of 0.005 day-1were identified. The proposed model, ALVI, was validated, and it is based on statistical indicators, such as: NS (0.84), RMSE (0.62), R2(0.97), EEE (0.66) and IWM (0.84). The statistical indicators indicated a high degree of efficiency, it isinside within the metric of the ranges of the statistical indicators. The hydrological model (ALVI) was validated: Qb=Q0 / (1+e [1.32*Ln ((Q0/Qf) -1)-(0.00049*Ln(A)+0.0057)*t]). The observed and simulated flows were identical tothe non-parametric Mann-Whitney U test. The RStudio Cloud program was used with a significance level of 0.05, it was determined from the median that the observed and simulated flows are similar or identical.