Hydrological impact simulations of climate change on Lebanese coastal rivers /<i>Simulations des impacts hydrologiques du changement climatique sur les fleuves côtiers Libanais</i>

Hreiche, Antoine; Najem, W.; Bocquillon, Claude

doi:10.1623/hysj.52.6.1119

Cited by 23 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Hreiche et al 2007, Fujihara et al 2008, Senatore et al 2011, Ruelland et al 2012. However, Cudennec et al (2007) have shown that the Mediterranean region is particularly sensitive to changes brought about by human pressure on hydrological processes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the long-term impact of climatic variability and human activities on the water resources of a meso-scale Mediterranean catchment

Collet¹,

Ruelland²,

Borrell-Estupina³

et al. 2014

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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long-term impact of climatic variability and human activities on the water resources of a meso-scale Mediterranean catchment. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (8), 1457-1469. http://dx.doi.org/10. 1080/02626667.2013.842073 Abstract This article addresses the critical need for a better quantitative understanding of how water resources from the Hérault River catchment in France have been influenced by climate variability and the increasing pressure of human activity over the last 50 years. A method is proposed for assessing the relative impacts of climate and growing water demand on the decrease in discharge observed at various gauging stations in the periods 1961-1980 and 1981-2010. An annual water balance at the basin scale was calculated first, taking into account precipitation, actual evapotranspiration, water withdrawals and water discharge. Next, the evolution of the seasonal variability in hydroclimatic conditions and water withdrawals was studied. The catchment was then divided into zones according to the main geographical characteristics to investigate the heterogeneity of the climatic and human dynamics. This delimitation took into account the distribution of climate, topography, lithology, land cover and water uses, as well as the availability of discharge series. At the area scale, annual water balances were calculated to understand the internal changes that occurred in the catchment between both past periods. The decrease in runoff can be explained by the decrease in winter precipitation in the upstream areas and by the increase during summer in both water withdrawals and evapotranspiration in the downstream areas, mainly due to the increase in temperature. Thus, water stress increased in summer by 35%. This work is the first step of a larger research project to assess possible future changes in the capacity to satisfy water demand in the Hérault River catchment, using a model that combines hydrological processes and water demand.Key words climate variability; long-term impact; water balance; water use; Mediterranean catchment Evaluation sur le long terme de l'impact de la variabilité climatique et des activités humaines sur les ressources en eau d'un bassin Méditerranéen de méso-échelle Résumé Cet article vise à mieux comprendre l'impact relatif de la variabilité climatique et de l'augmentation des pressions anthropiques sur l'évolution des ressources en eau du bassin de l'Hérault au cours des 50 dernières années. Une méthode est proposée pour évaluer cet impact sur la diminution observée des écoulements en plusieurs stations de jaugeage entre les périodes 1961-1980 et 1981-2010. Un bilan hydrologique annuel a tout d'abord été calculé, en tenant compte de la précipitation, de l'évapotranspiration réelle, des prélèvements en eau et du débit. Ensuite, l'évolution de la variabilité saisonnière des conditions hydro-climatiques et des prélèvements en eau a été étudiée. Le bassin a ensuite été divisé en plusieurs biefs selon les caractéristiques géographiques principales pour comprendre l'hétérogénéité...

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the long-term impact of climatic variability and human activities on the water resources of a meso-scale Mediterranean catchment

Collet¹,

Ruelland²,

Borrell-Estupina³

et al. 2014

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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“…Socioeconomically, and as other regions of Lebanon, the Nahr Ibrahim basin presents a densely populated lower portion corresponding to its coastal area in contrast to a less populated upper mountainous region [10]. In addition to urbanization in its lower part, the Nahr Ibrahim basin suffers from intensive industrial development [84] as opposed to a much less populated mountainous upper part.…”

Section: The Nahr Ibrahim Basin: a Representative Mediterranean Basinmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating Differences of Erosion Patterns in Natural and Anthropogenic Basins through Scenario Testing: A Case Study of the Claise, France and Nahr Ibrahim, Lebanon

Sayah¹,

Nedjaï²,

Abdallah³

et al. 2019

Soil Erosion - Rainfall Erosivity and Risk Assessment

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This study assessed soil erosion risks of two basins representing different geographical, topographical, climatological and land occupation/management settings. A comparison and an evaluation of site-specific factors influencing erosion in the French Claise and the Lebanese Nahr Ibrahim basins were performed. The Claise corresponds to a natural park with a flat area and an oceanic climate, and is characterized by the presence of 2179 waterbodies (mostly ponds) considered as hydro-sedimentary alternating structures, while Nahr Ibrahim represents an orographic Mediterranean basin characterized by a random unequal land occupation distribution. The Claise was found to be under 12.48% no erosion (attributed to the dense pond network), 65.66% low, 21.68% moderate and 0.18% high erosion risks; while Nahr Ibrahim was found to be under 4, 39.5 and 56.4%, low, moderate and high erosion risks, along with 66% land degradation determined from the intersection of land capability and land occupation maps. Under the alternative scenario for the Claise where ponds were considered dried, erosion risks became 1.12, 0.52, 76.8 and 21.56%, no erosion, low, moderate and high risks, respectively. For Nahr Ibrahim, and following the Land Degradation Neutrality intervention, high erosion risks decreased by 13.9%, while low and moderate risks increased by 3 and 10.8%.

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“…Climate change is expected to have severe consequences on Mediterranean runoff with a serious risk of fresh water availability decrease of 2% to 15% for 2°C of warming (Cramer et al, 2018) and significant increase of droughts period particularly in the South and East (Hreiche et al, 2007;Cudennec et al, 2007;Garcia-Ruiz et al, 2011;Verdier and Viollet, 2015). The CMIP5 simulations (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5) expected a mean precipitation decrease of -4%/°C and temperature increase of 20% more than the global average with maximum precipitation reduction reaching -7%/°C in winter in the southern Mediterranean region and -9%/°C in the summer in the Northern region (Lionello & Scarascia, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Specific Climate Classification for Mediterranean Hydrology and Future Evolution Under Med-CORDEX RCM Scenarios

Allam¹,

Moussa²,

Najem³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. The Mediterranean is one of the most sensitive regions to anthropogenic and climatic changes mostly affecting its water resources and related practices. With multiple studies raising serious concerns of climate shifts and aridity expansion in the region, this one aims to establish a new high resolution classification for hydrology purposes based on Mediterranean specific climate indices. This classification is useful in following up hydrological (water resources management, floods, droughts, etc.), and ecohydrological applications such as Mediterranean agriculture like olive cultivation and other environmental practices. The proposed approach includes the use of classic climatic indices and the definition of new climatic indices mainly precipitation seasonality index Is or evapotranspiration threshold SPET both in line with river flow regimes, a Principal Component Analysis to reduce the number of indices, K-Means classification to distribute them into classes and finally the construction of a decision tree based on the distances to classes kernels to reproduce the classification without having to repeat the whole process. The classification was set and validated by WorldClim-2 at 1-km high resolution gridded data for the 1970–2000 baseline period and 144 stations data over 30 to 120 years, both at monthly time steps. Climatic classes coincided with a geographical distribution in the Mediterranean ranging from the most seasonal and dry class 1 in the south to the least seasonal and most humid class 5 in the North, showing up the climatic continuity from one place to another and enhancing the visibility of change trends. The MED-CORDEX ALADIN and CCLM historical and projected data at 12-km and 50-km resolution simulated under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the 2070–2100 period served to assess the climate change impact on this classification by superimposing the projected changes on the baseline grid based classification. RCP scenarios are increasing seasonality index Is by +80 % and aridity index IArid by +60 % in the North and IArid by +10 % without Is change in the South, hence causing the wet seasons shortening and river regimes modification with the migration North of winter moderate and extreme winter regimes instead of early spring regimes. ALADIN and CCLM RCM models have demonstrated an evolution of the Mediterranean region towards arid climate. The classes located to the north are slowly evolving towards moderate coastal classes which might affect hydrologic regimes due to shorter humid seasons and earlier snowmelts. These scenarios might look favourable for Mediterranean cultivation however, the expected impact on water resources and flow regimes will sure expand and directly hit ecosystems, food, health and tourism as risk is interconnected between domains. This kind of classification might be reproduced at the global scale, using same or other climatic indices specific for each region highlighting their physiographic characteristics and hydrological response.

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Hydrological impact simulations of climate change on Lebanese coastal rivers /Simulations des impacts hydrologiques du changement climatique sur les fleuves côtiers Libanais

Cited by 23 publications

References 25 publications

Assessing the long-term impact of climatic variability and human activities on the water resources of a meso-scale Mediterranean catchment

Assessing the long-term impact of climatic variability and human activities on the water resources of a meso-scale Mediterranean catchment

Evaluating Differences of Erosion Patterns in Natural and Anthropogenic Basins through Scenario Testing: A Case Study of the Claise, France and Nahr Ibrahim, Lebanon

Specific Climate Classification for Mediterranean Hydrology and Future Evolution Under Med-CORDEX RCM Scenarios

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