Hydrological Extremes and Responses to Climate Change in the Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia, Based on the CMIP6 HighResMIP Experiments

Tan, Mou Leong; Liang, Jiale; Samat, Narimah; Chan, Ngai Weng; Haywood, Jim M.; Hodges, Kevin I.

doi:10.3390/w13111472

Cited by 31 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 73 publications

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“…The same method is used to replace the missing data in the MMD precipitation observation with the interpolated values based on the available data of the time step, though most of the applied MMD observations are from the principal climate stations of the WMO which are well maintained and thus contain fewer missing values than other stations (Tan et al 2021). The inter-comparison of the full-year precipitation amount and those during the southwest monsoon (MJJA) and northeast monsoon (NDJF) seasons is made for the observed precipitation data and the GCM simulations.…”

Section: Methods For Model Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Monsoonal precipitation over Peninsular Malaysia in the CMIP6 HighResMIP experiments: the role of model resolution

et al. 2021

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This study investigates the ability of 20 model simulations which contributed to the CMIP6 HighResMIP to simulate precipitation in different monsoon seasons and extreme precipitation events over Peninsular Malaysia. The model experiments utilize common forcing but are run with different horizontal and vertical resolutions. The impact of resolution on the models’ abilities to simulate precipitation and associated environmental fields is assessed by comparing multi-model ensembles at different resolutions with three observed precipitation datasets and four climate reanalyses. Model simulations with relatively high horizontal and vertical resolution exhibit better performance in simulating the annual cycle of precipitation and extreme precipitation over Peninsular Malaysia and the coastal regions. Improvements associated with the increase in horizontal and vertical resolutions are also found in the statistical relationship between precipitation and monsoon intensity in different seasons. However, the increase in vertical resolution can lead to a reduction of annual mean precipitation compared to that from the models with low vertical resolutions, associated with an overestimation of moisture divergence and underestimation of lower-tropospheric vertical ascent in the different monsoon seasons. This limits any improvement in the simulation of precipitation in the high vertical resolution experiments, particularly for the Southwest monsoon season.

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Section: Methods For Model Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Monsoonal precipitation over Peninsular Malaysia in the CMIP6 HighResMIP experiments: the role of model resolution

et al. 2021

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“…Since original climate models even contain biases in high-resolution versions, a bias correction scheme should be implemented before applying them to regional-or local-scale studies. The quantile mapping approach adopted by Tan et al [41] to bias correct the CMIP6 HighResMIP models in the Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia, was used in this study. We found that the quantile mapping approach can effectively correct the occurrence period of peak monthly precipitation in December and precipitation amount for all months.…”

Section: Climate Change Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Climate Change on Rice Yield in Malaysia: A Panel Data Analysis

et al. 2021

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Climate change is a global problem since many countries worldwide are becoming increasingly vulnerable to natural disasters. Numerous climate models in various studies project a decline in agricultural productivity that will mainly be due to excessive heat in tropical and subtropical regions, especially in Southeast Asia. As a Southeast Asian country, Malaysia is no exception to this problem. Hence, the present study aimed to examine the impact of climate change on rice yields in Malaysia. A panel data approach was adopted using data from 1987 to 2017 on eight granary areas in Peninsular Malaysia. The main objectives were to assess the impact of climate variables (i.e., minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation) on rice yield and the variance of the impact during the main season and off-season. Our regression results indicate that precipitation was not statistically significant in all model specifications for both the main and off-season. While the maximum temperature was found to be negatively associated with yield during the off-season, the minimum temperature showed a positive effect in both cropping seasons. We used the HadGEM3-GC31 N512 resolution model based on the high-emission Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 8.5 scenario (SSPs-8.5) from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to project future climate change in 2030 and 2040. The projected results indicate that rice yield would show a more positive trend by 2040 when compared to the previous decade, ranging from −0.02 to 19.85% during the main season and −2.77 to 7.41% during the off-season. Although rice yield is likely to increase in certain areas, other areas are projected to experience negative effects. Hence, adaptation at the farm level remains crucial, specifically during the off-season, since climate change could widen the gaps in rice yields between cropping seasons and among granary areas.

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“…The ability to resolve small scale weather features is important for basin scale analysis, and means HighResMIP GCMs will likely be employed by hydrologists to study hydro-climatic changes around the world, including the tropical regions. Tan, et al [20] found that high-resolution HighResMIP models projected a higher flow rate during flood season than low-resolution models in the Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia. To date, there has been little investigation of about the role of HighResMIP models resolution on hydro-climatic projections.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Resolution Dependence of Regional Hydro-Climatic Projection: A Case-Study for the Johor River Basin, Malaysia

Tan

Liang

Hawcroft

et al. 2021

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High resolution models from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP), part of CMIP6, have the capacity to allow a better representation of the climate system in tropical regions, but how different model resolutions affect hydrological outputs remains unclear. This research aims to evaluate projections of hydro-climatic change of the Johor River Basin (JRB) in southern Peninsular Malaysia between 1985 to 2015 and 2021 to 2050, focusing on uncertainty quantification of hydrological outputs from low (>1°), medium (0.5° to 1°) and high (≤0.5°) horizontal resolution models. These projections show future increases in annual precipitation of 0.4 to 3.1%, minimum and maximum temperature increases of 0.8 to 0.9 °C and 0.9 to 1.1 °C, respectively. These projected climate changes lead to increases in annual mean streamflow of 0.9% to 7.0% and surface runoff of 7.0% to 20.6% in the JRB. These annual mean changes are consistent with those during the wet period (November to December), e.g., streamflow increases of 4.9% to 10.8% and surface runoff of 28.8 to 39.9% in December. Disagreement in the direction of change is found during the dry seasons, (February to March and May to September), where high resolution models project a decrease in future monthly precipitation and streamflow, whilst increases are projected by the medium- and low-resolution models.

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Hydrological Extremes and Responses to Climate Change in the Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia, Based on the CMIP6 HighResMIP Experiments

Cited by 31 publications

References 73 publications

Monsoonal precipitation over Peninsular Malaysia in the CMIP6 HighResMIP experiments: the role of model resolution

Monsoonal precipitation over Peninsular Malaysia in the CMIP6 HighResMIP experiments: the role of model resolution

Impact of Climate Change on Rice Yield in Malaysia: A Panel Data Analysis

Resolution Dependence of Regional Hydro-Climatic Projection: A Case-Study for the Johor River Basin, Malaysia

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