Hydrological climate change projections for Central America

Hidalgo, Hugo G.; Amador, Jorge A.; Alfaro, Eric J.; Quesada, Beatriz

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.05.004

Cited by 130 publications

(150 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…The projected change in P suggests future drier conditions compared to the baseline scenario in the northern part of Central America and wetter conditions in the southern country of Panama. This pattern is consistent with a future southward displacement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) mentioned in other studies as a possible signature of climate change in the region (Rauscher et al 2011;Hidalgo et al 2013). The ITCZ is a region of high precipitation at the convergence of trade winds from the north and south hemispheres and it is a major contribution to the availability of moisture during the wet season in Central America.…”

Section: Climate Change Projections At Mid-centurysupporting

confidence: 91%

“…The 1982 trends are shown in Hidalgo et al (2013) using CAMS data. The 1970 warming trends in the northern and southern parts of Central America are also present in the CAMS dataset and in the CRUTEMP2 dataset.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This latter dataset only showed significant drying trends in southern Pacific coast of Costa Rica (not shown). Even with no significant changes in precipitation, warming trends in the region can still have severe consequences in the hydrology of the region, as increases in evapotranspiration can produce significant reductions in runoff and water availability (Hidalgo et al 2013). The contrast in SST between the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean as a good indicator of precipitation in most of the Central American region was suggested by Maldonado and Alfaro (2011);Maldonado et al (2013) and Enfield and Alfaro (1999) who attributed the correlations between SSTs and P to the strengthening or weakening of the trade winds.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, temperature could still affect variability and especially trends on sensitive hydrological variables such as runoff and soil moisture through its influence on evapotranspiration (Imbach et al 2012;Hidalgo et al 2013). This is particularly true for Central America, a tropical region with high temperatures and relatively low variability throughout the year.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These analyses could provide information to future studies regarding adaptation measures that are needed for reducing the impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Other possible uses of the Tavg dataset is for studies of detection and attribution of climate change Bonfils et al 2008;Pierce et al 2008;Hidalgo et al 2009), statistical downscaling (Maurer and Hidalgo 2008;Maurer et al 2010;Wood et al 2004), and to determine changes in runoff in observations and projections (Hidalgo et al 2013). …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Observed (1970–1999) climate variability in Central America using a high-resolution meteorological dataset with implication to climate change studies

2016

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High spatial resolution of precipitation (P) and average air temperature (Tavg) datasets are ideal for determining the spatial patterns associated with large-scale atmospheric and oceanic indexes, and climate change and variability studies, however such datasets are not usually available. Those datasets are particularly important for Central America because they allow the conception of climate variability and climate change studies in a region of high climatic heterogeneity and at the same time aid the decisionmaking process at the local scale (municipalities and districts). Tavg data from stations and complementary gridded datasets at 50 km resolution were used to generate a high-resolution (5 km grid) dataset for Central America from 1970 to 1999. A highresolution P dataset was used along with the new Tavg dataset to study climate variability and a climate change application. Consistently with other studies, it was found that the 1970-1999 trends in P are generally non-significant, with the exception of a few small locations. In the case of Tavg, there were significant warming trends in most of Central America, and cooling trends in Honduras and northern Panama. When the sea surface temperature anomalies between the Tropical Pacific and the Tropical Atlantic have different (same) sign, they are a good indicator of the sign of P (Tavg) annual anomalies. Even with non-significant trends in precipitation, the significant warming trends in Tavg in most of Central America can have severe consequences in the hydrology and water availability of the region, as the warming would bring increases in evapotranspiration, drier soils and higher aridity.

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Section: Climate Change Projections At Mid-centurysupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Observed (1970–1999) climate variability in Central America using a high-resolution meteorological dataset with implication to climate change studies

2016

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Hydroclimatic and ecohydrological resistance/resilience conditions across tropical biomes of Costa Rica

et al. 2017

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Water resources management in the tropics is challenged by climate variability and unregulated land use change and their impacts on the complex interactions between vegetation, soil, and atmosphere. This study focuses on the analysis of hydroclimatic and ecohydrological conditions across 6 major biomes in Costa Rica. Using the Budyko and the Tomer–Schilling frameworks, 31 reanalysis data points located across the Caribbean and Pacific domains were classified according to their ecohydrological resistance and resilience between 1989 and 2005. Observed data were used to evaluate the reanalysis products. Resistance was defined as the standard deviation in the water excess (Q/P), whereas resilience was defined as the standard deviation of the energy (AET/PET) to the water excess. A strong orographic separation was obtained between the water‐limited Pacific slope and the energy‐limited Caribbean slope. The Caribbean slope is characterized by low resistance and high resilience to changes in the hydroclimatic conditions, with small relative changes in water excess (−18% to 2.0%), whereas the Northern Pacific slope has high resistance and low resilience and exhibited strong changes in water excess (−34% to 0%). Some regions of the Northern Pacific region covered by lower and premontane forests have recently suffered significant increments in the dryness index (PET/P). This study demonstrates the need for national–regional strategies to effectively optimize water use efficiency and water storage and to include a climate vulnerability component in future water management plans.

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Dry season plant water sourcing in contrasting tropical ecosystems of Costa Rica

et al. 2023

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Tracer‐aided studies to understand plant water uptake sources and dynamics in tropical ecosystems are limited. Here, we report the analysis of dry season source water uptake patterns of five unique ecosystems of Costa Rica across altitudinal (<150–3,400 m asl) and latitudinal (Caribbean and Pacific slopes) gradients: evergreen and seasonal rainforests, cloud forest, Páramo and dry forest. Soil and plant samples were collected during the dry season in 2021. Plant and soil water extractions were conducted using centrifugation. Stem water extracted volume and stem total water content were calculated via gravimetric analysis. Water source contributions were estimated using a Bayesian mixing model. Isotope ratios in soil and stems exhibited a strong meteoric origin. Enrichment trends were only detected in stems and cactus samples within the dry forest ecosystem. Soil profiles revealed nearly uniform isotopic profiles; however, a depletion trend was observed in the Páramo ecosystem below 25 cm. More enriched compositions were reported in cactus samples for extracted water volumes above ~20% (adj. r2 = 0.34, p < 0.01). The most prominent dry season water source in the evergreen rainforest (74.0%), seasonal rainforest (86.4%) and cloud forest (66.0%) corresponded to well‐mixed soil water. In the Páramo ecosystem, recent rainfall produced by trade wind incursions resulted in the most significant water source (61.9%), whereas in the dry forest, mean annual precipitation (38.6%) and baseflow (33.1%) were the dominant sources. The latter highlights the prevalence of distinct water uptake sources between recent cold front rainfall (near‐surface soil storage) to more well‐mixed soil moisture during the dry season, revealing ecohydrological processing previously unknown in this tropical region.

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Hydrological climate change projections for Central America

Cited by 130 publications

References 56 publications

Observed (1970–1999) climate variability in Central America using a high-resolution meteorological dataset with implication to climate change studies

Observed (1970–1999) climate variability in Central America using a high-resolution meteorological dataset with implication to climate change studies

Hydroclimatic and ecohydrological resistance/resilience conditions across tropical biomes of Costa Rica

Dry season plant water sourcing in contrasting tropical ecosystems of Costa Rica

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