Hydrological Climate Change Impact Analysis for the Figeh Spring near Damascus, Syria

Abstract

A set of downscaled climate change data from transient experiments with regional climate models has been used to access the future climate change signal in the area of the Figeh spring system in Syria and its potential effects on future water availability. The data ensemble at a spatial resolution of 0.258 has been investigated for the period 1961-90 for present-day climate and the periods 2021-50 and 2070-99 for future climate. The focus is on changes to annual, seasonal, and monthly surface air temperature and precipitation. For the first time, the Figeh spring discharge has been assessed with a hydrological runoff model based on an artificial neural network (ANN) approach. The ANN model was formulated and validated for the years 1987-2007, applying daily meteorological driving data. The investigations show that water supply from the spring might face serious problems under changed climate conditions. An expected, a precipitation decrease of about 211% in winter and 28% in spring, together with increased temperatures of up to 11.68C and a significant decrease in snow mass, can substantially limit the water recharge potential already in the near future until 2050. In the period 2070-99, the annual precipitation amount is simulated to decrease by 222% and the annual mean temperature to increase by 148C, relative to the 1961-90 mean. The ensemble mean of the relative change in mean discharge reveals a decrease during the peak flow from March to May, with values up to 220% in 2021-50 and almost 250% in the period 2069-98, both related to the 1961-90 mean.

Comparing One-Way and Two-Way Coupled Hydrometeorological Forecasting Systems for Flood Forecasting in the Mediterranean Region

“…Additionally, it is widely expected that climate change will increase the frequency of severe rain events in many regions around the world (Milly et al 2001 [2]; Wagener et al 2010 [3]; Kundzewicz et al 2010 [4]; Trenberth, 2011 [5]; Zwiers et al 2013 [6]; Andersen et al 2013 [7]). In the Mediterranean basin, these effects could lead to increasing droughts on one hand (Törnros and Menzel, 2014 [8]; Hoerling et al 2012 [9]; Dai, 2011 [10]; Smiatek et al 2011 [11]; 2013 [12]; 2014 [13]) and intensified flood events on the other (Yosef et al 2009 [14]; Samuels et al 2011 [15]). Land use changes and increasing urbanization are also factors that may enhance flood intensity and frequency (e.g., Bronstert et al 2002 [16]; Chang et al 2008 [17]; Githui et al 2010 [18]; Delgado et al 2010 [19]; Kalantari, 2014 [20].…”

Improvement of the KarstMod modeling platform for a better assessment of karst groundwater resources

“…It currently constitutes the main fresh water resource for around 350,000 people in the area. The present water management scheme allows pumping at higher rates than the natural spring discharge during low flow periods, while supplying a minimum discharge rate (∽ 230 l/s) into the Lez river to ensure ecological flow downstream, and reducing flood hazards via rainfall storage in autumn (Avias, 1995; In the present context of global change, Mediterranean karst systems already show significant decrease in spring discharge (Hartmann et al, 2012;Fiorillo et al, 2012;Smiatek et al, 2013;Doummar et al, 2018b;Nerantzaki and Nikolaidis, 2020;Dubois et al, 2020) which could be aggravated with groundwater abstraction (Sivelle et al, 2021). The Lez spring is strongly exposed to global change impact: (i) the Mediterranean area is identified as a climate change hot-spot (Diffenbaugh and Giorgi, 2012) where the projected warming spans 1.83-8.49 • C according to CMIP6 and 1.22-6.63 • C according to CMIP5 during the summer period (Cos et al, 2022), and (ii) the water management scheme will have to adapt to the future need in drinking water for the growing population in the area as well as changes in the fresh water consumption practice (e.g.…”

Risks and opportunities for a Swiss hydropower company in a changing climate

“…These hydrological indices and their relevance for Groupe E operations are summarized in Table 2. While future changes in the mean monthly streamflow cycle have been well explored (Addor et al, 2014;Smiatek et al, 2012;Vicuna and Dracup, 2007;Zierl and Bugmann, 2005), studies focusing on changes in other streamflow characteristics, such as extremes (Köplin et al, 2014), are less common.…”