Hydrological and Thermal Aspects of Petroleum Occurrence

Чеботарев, И. И.

doi:10.1306/3d93442a-16b1-11d7-8645000102c1865d

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 14 publications

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“…As a method for studying the cyclicity in the course of mean annual water discharges, the authors used the difference total runoff curve (synonym: reduced total runoff curve), which can be represented by the following formula (Chebotarev, 1964):…”

Section: Methodology For Estimating River Flows For the Futurementioning

confidence: 99%

Kyrgyz transboundary rivers’ runoff assessment (Syr-darya and Amu-darya river basins) in climate change scenarios

Kalashnikova¹,

Niyazov²,

Nurbatsina³

et al. 2023

CAJWR

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The research was carried out as part of the preparation “Water Resources” section of the 4th National Communication of the Kyrgyz Republic to the UNFCCC. The article presents extensive information on the current state and changes over a long period of observations of water resources, climate and glaciation in Kyrgyzstan (Syr-Darya and Amu-Darya river basins). The representative rivers were selected as the main objects, which are transboundary between Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan. The study aims to assess the inter-annual and intra-annual dynamics of the flow of the rivers for the period from 2020 to 2080, based on the climate projections CMIP5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and CMIP6 (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) (IPCC WG II Report, 2022). The hydrological modeling method in the HBV light and HBV EHT models and the inertial mean annual flow change method were used to estimate changes in water resources. On the rivers of the northern part of the Fergana Valley, the average annual runoff is expected to increase by 1-19%, in the Amudarya river basin (Kyzyl-Suu river) – by 27-64% of the values for 2006-2019. In the Naryn river, water discharge for this period will remain within the current values for 2006-2019. The method of inertial change in the average annual runoff showed an increase in runoff for 2030 and 2040 for all the studied catchment areas by 6-19% of the current values for 2006-2020. The results of the study are intended for decision-makers on the rational use and long-term planning of water resources under climate change.

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Section: Methodology For Estimating River Flows For the Futurementioning

confidence: 99%