Hydrologic vulnerability to climate change of the Mandrone glacier (Adamello-Presanella group, Italian Alps)

Grossi, Giovanna; Caronna, Paolo; Ranzi, Roberto

doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2012.11.014

Cited by 20 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…These coefficients comply with the 7% reduction of the annual run‐off and with the modified monthly run‐off regime during the year. Air temperature was increased by 0.0275 °C/year, corresponding to the overall increase of 1.1 °C in 2050; this value is consistent with the air temperature projections obtained by the regional climate model CLM for the investigated area (Grossi et al ., ). The temperature of the inflows was computed from the 2011 to 2050 air temperature on the basis of the correlations reported in Table , leading to an overall increase of 0.3–0.4 °C at the end of the simulation period.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The outlet of Lake Iseo drains a watershed of 1781 km 2 , which shares the largest glacierized Italian area (Adamello glacier, with a surface of 17.53 km 2 ). It has been reckoned (Ranzi et al ., ; Grossi et al ., ) that this glacier underwent an average loss of 1290 mm/year of water equivalent over the last decade. Additionally, there is evidence that in this lake, the hypolimnetic temperature has increased in the last 50 years.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Sensitivity of the multiannual thermal dynamics of a deep pre‐alpine lake to climatic change

Valerio

Pilotti

Barontini

et al. 2014

Hydrological Processes

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The study of the multiannual thermal dynamics of Lake Iseo, a deep lake in the Italian pre-alpine area, is presented. Inter ﬂow was found to be the dominant river entrance mode, suggesting future susceptibility of the lake thermal structure to the overall effects of climate change expected in the upstream alpine watershed. A lake model employed the results of a long-term hydrologic model to simulate the effects of a climate change scenario on the lake ’ s thermal evolution for the period 2012 – 2050. The model predicts an overall average increase in the lake water temperature of 0.012 °C/year and a reinforced Schmidt thermal stability of the water column in the winter up to 800 J/m 2. Both these effects may further hinder the deep circulation process, which is vital for the oxygenation of deep water

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity of the multiannual thermal dynamics of a deep pre‐alpine lake to climatic change

Valerio

Pilotti

Barontini

et al. 2014

Hydrological Processes

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“…It is based on the application of a correction factor to the daily measurement as a function of daily average temperature [31,[35][36][37][38][39][40][41]]. It appears thusly:…”

Section: Correction Of Precipitation Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Snow Precipitation Measured by Gauges: Systematic Error Estimation and Data Series Correction in the Central Italian Alps

Grossi

Lendvai

Peretti³

et al. 2017

Water

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Abstract:Precipitation measurements by rain gauges are usually affected by a systematic underestimation, which can be larger in case of snowfall. The wind, disturbing the trajectory of the falling water droplets or snowflakes above the rain gauge, is the major source of error, but when tipping-bucket recording gauges are used, the induced evaporation due to the heating device must also be taken into account. Manual measurements of fresh snow water equivalent (SWE) were taken in Alpine areas of Valtellina and Vallecamonica, in Northern Italy, and compared with daily precipitation and melted snow measured by manual precipitation gauges and by mechanical and electronic heated tipping-bucket recording gauges without any wind-shield: all of these gauges underestimated the SWE in a range between 15% and 66%. In some experimental monitoring sites, instead, electronic weighing storage gauges with Alter-type wind-shields are coupled with snow pillows data: daily SWE measurements from these instruments are in good agreement. In order to correct the historical data series of precipitation affected by systematic errors in snowfall measurements, a simple 'at-site' and instrument-dependent model was first developed that applies a correction factor as a function of daily air temperature, which is an index of the solid/liquid precipitation type. The threshold air temperatures were estimated through a statistical analysis of snow field observations. The correction model applied to daily observations led to 5-37% total annual precipitation increments, growing with altitude (1740 ÷ 2190 m above sea level, a.s.l.) and wind exposure. A second 'climatological' correction model based on daily air temperature and wind speed was proposed, leading to errors only slightly higher than those obtained for the at-site corrections.

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“…Grossi et al [49] projected the mass balance of the Mandrone glacier (12 km 2 ) in the Adamello group until 2100. They used two scenarios from a regional climate model called COSMO-CLM.…”

Section: Cryospheric Water Under Future Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Hydropower from the Alpine Cryosphere in the Era of Climate Change: The Case of the Sabbione Storage Plant in Italy

Stucchi

Bombelli

Bianchi

et al. 2019

Water

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Greenhouse gas reduction policies will have to rely as much as possible upon renewable, clean energy sources. Hydropower is a very good candidate, since it is the only renewable energy source whose production can be adapted to demand, and still has a large exploitation margin, especially in developing countries. However, in Europe the contribution of hydropower from the cold water in the mountain areas is at stake under rapid cryospheric down wasting under global warming. Italian Alps are no exception, with a large share of hydropower depending upon cryospheric water. We study here climate change impact on the iconic Sabbione (Hosandorn) glacier, in the Piemonte region of Italy, and the homonymous reservoir, which collects water from ice melt. Sabbione storage plant has operated since 1953 and it was, until recently, the highest altitude dam of Europe at 2460 m asl, and the former second largest dam of the Alps with 44 Mm3. We use two models, namely Poly-Hydro and Poly-Power, to assess (i) present hydrological budget and components (i.e., ice/snow melt, rainfall), and (ii) hydropower production under optimal reservoirs’ management, respectively. We then project forward hydrological cycle including Sabbione glacier’s fate, under properly downscaled climate change scenarios (three General Circulation Models, three Representative Concentration Pathways, nine scenarios overall) from IPCC until 2100, and we assess future potential for hydropower production under the reservoir’s re-operation. Mean annual discharge during 2000–2017 is estimated at 0.90 m3 s−1, with ice melt contribution of ca. 11.5%, and ice cover as measured by remote sensing changing from 4.23 km2 in 2000 to 2.94 km2 in 2017 (−30%). Mean hydropower production during 2005–2017 is estimated as 46.6 GWh. At the end of the century ice covered area would be largely depleted (0–0.37 km2), and ice melt contribution would drop largely over the century (0%–10%, 5% on average at half century, and null in practice at the end of century). Therefore, decreased ice cover, and uncertain patterns of changing precipitation, would combine to modify the future stream fluxes (−22% to −3%, −10% on average at half century, and −28% to 1%, average −13%, at the end of century). Power production, driven by seasonal demand and water availability, would change (decrease) in the future (−27% to −8%, −15% on average at half century, and −32% to −5%, −16% at the end of century). Our results demonstrate potential for decrease of cold water in this area, paradigmatic of the present state of hydropower in the Alps, and subsequent considerable hydropower losses under climate change, and claim for adaptation measures therein.

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Hydrologic vulnerability to climate change of the Mandrone glacier (Adamello-Presanella group, Italian Alps)

Cited by 20 publications

References 39 publications

Sensitivity of the multiannual thermal dynamics of a deep pre‐alpine lake to climatic change

Sensitivity of the multiannual thermal dynamics of a deep pre‐alpine lake to climatic change

Snow Precipitation Measured by Gauges: Systematic Error Estimation and Data Series Correction in the Central Italian Alps

Hydropower from the Alpine Cryosphere in the Era of Climate Change: The Case of the Sabbione Storage Plant in Italy

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