Hydrologic analysis of the Fort Collins, Colorado, flash flood of 1997

Ogden, Fred L.; Sharif, Hatim O.; Senarath, Sharika U. S.; Smith, James A.; Baeck, Mary Lynn; Richardson, J. R.

doi:10.1016/s0022-1694(00)00146-3

Cited by 187 publications

(88 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…The flow peaks are reached within a few hours, thus giving little or no advance warning to mitigate flood damage (Borga et al, 2007;Borga et al, 2008). This hydrological response leads to the occurrence of a typology of floods known as flash floods because of their rapid onset, i.e., within six hours of rainfall (Ogden et al, 2000;Delrieu et al, 2005;Marchi et al, 2010;Hapuarachchi et al, 2011;Naulin et al, 2013;Ballesteros-Canovas et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improvement of resilience of urban areas by integrating social perception in flash-flood risk management

Pozo

Amérigo

Díez‐Herrero

et al. 2016

Journal of Hydrology

127

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Please cite this article as: Bodoque, J.M., Amerigo, M., Díez-Herrero, A., García, J.A., Cortés, B., BallesterosCánovas, J.A., Olcina, J., Improvement of resilience of urban areas by integrating social perception in flash-flood risk management, Journal of Hydrology (2016), doi: http://dx.doi.org/10. 1016/j.jhydrol.2016.02.005 This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proof before it is published in its final form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain. AbstractIn urban areas prone to flash floods, characterization of social resilience is critical to guarantee the success of emergency management plans. In this study, we present the methodological approach that led to the submission and subsequent approval of the Civil Protection Plan of Navaluenga (Central Spain), in which the first phase was to analyse flood hazard by combining the Hydrological Modelling System (HEC-HMS) and the Iber 2D hydrodynamic model. We then analysed social vulnerability and designed measures to put into practice within the framework of the Civil Protection Plan. At a later phase, we assessed citizens' flash-flood risk perception and level of awareness regarding some key variables of the Civil Protection Plan. To this end, 254 adults representing roughly 12% of the population census were interviewed. Responses were analysed descriptively, comparing awareness regarding preparedness and response actions with the corresponding information 2 and behaviours previously defined in the Civil Protection Plan. In addition, we carried out a latent class cluster analysis aimed at identifying the different groups present among the interviewees. Our results showed that risk perception is low. Specifically, 60.8% of the interviewees showed low risk perception and low awareness (cluster 1);24.4% had high risk perception and low awareness (cluster 2), while the remaining 14.8% presented high long-term risk perception and high awareness (cluster 3).These findings suggest the need for integrating these key variables of social risk perception and local tailored information in emergency management plans, especially in urban areas prone to flash-floods where response times are limited.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improvement of resilience of urban areas by integrating social perception in flash-flood risk management

Pozo

Amérigo

Díez‐Herrero

et al. 2016

Journal of Hydrology

127

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“…Celles-ci ne peuvent être obtenues qu'à partir de longues séries temporelles à haute résolution (BERNDTSSON et NIEMCZYNOWICZ, 1988;NIEMCZYNOWICZ, 1999;OGDEN et al, 2000). Les exigences concernant les résolutions temporelles et spatiales des données pluviométriques pour l'hydrologie urbaine ont été discutées et quantifiées par SCHILLING (1991) et BERNE et al (2004.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Caractéristiques multifractales et extrêmes de la précipitation à haute résolution, application à la détection du changement climatique

Hoang

Tchiguirinskaia

Schertzer

et al. 2014

rseau

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La qualité des statistiques des précipitations, notamment les courbes Intensité-Durée-Fréquence, dépend étroitement de la fiabilité des données disponibles. Or, il a été montré que la plupart des séries temporelles provenant de pluviomètres à augets basculants ont une fréquence effective de mesure inférieure à celle assumée. Cette question est particulièrement importante pour l'hydrologie urbaine qui doit prendre en compte les fluctuations hautes fréquences des précipitations. Des études préliminaires ont montré que le nombre d'inondations estimé à l’aide de données à basse fréquence temporelle était plus faible que celui obtenu à l’aide des données à haute fréquence temporelle. Le déficit en données à haute fréquence peut conduire à d’apparentes ruptures des lois d’échelle, ce qui complique inutilement et notoirement la modélisation des précipitations. Il est donc indispensable de quantifier la qualité des données avant de les utiliser. Nous présentons une procédure SERQUAL qui permet de répondre à cette question et nous utilisons cette procédure SERQUAL pour sélectionner les sous-séries ayant les qualités requises pour des analyses à haute résolution. L’approche multifractale est alors appliquée sur les données sélectionnées pour caractériser la structure temporelle et le comportement extrême de la pluie. Cet article présente ainsi une estimation fiable des paramètres multifractaux de la pluie à haute résolution de cinq minutes pour les départements français de l’Isère (38), des Yvelines (78), du Var (83) et du Val-de-Marne (94). Ces paramètres peuvent être utilisés pour caler ou valider des modèles statistiques ou stochastiques. D’autre part, l’évolution des caractéristiques multifractales peut être aussi utilisée pour évaluer des conséquences hydrologiques du changement climatique. Les résultats obtenus montrent que l’influence du changement climatique n’est pas perceptible sur les précipitations pour les périodes étudiées en région Ile-de-France.

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“…[2] It is commonly agreed that the quality of real-time hydrologic forecasts depends on the adequacy of the rainfall runoff model structure and parameters as well as the accuracy of space-time representation of rainfall input [e.g., Kitanidis and Bras, 1980;Georgakakos and Hudlow, 1984;Georgakakos, 1986;Georgakakos and Smith, 1990;Krajewski et al, 1991;Pessoa et al, 1993;Michaud and Sorooshian, 1994;O'Connell and Todini, 1996;Winchell et al, 1998;Bell and Moore, 2000;Ogden et al, 2000;Borga, 2002;National Research Council, 2002;Syed et al, 2003;Smith et al, 2004;Ajami et al, 2007;Gabellani et al, 2007]. While errors due to both factors have received much recent attention in the literature [e.g., Finnerty et al, 1997;Butts et al, 2004;Carpenter and Georgakakos, 2004;Wagener and Gupta, 2005;Borga et al, 2006;Huard and Mailhot, 2006;Kavetski et al, 2006aKavetski et al, , 2006bKuczera et al, 2006;Oudin et al, 2006], data assimilation and ensemble forecasting frameworks are considered effective means of improving forecasts in the face of uncertainty [e.g., Kavetski et al, 2002;Vrugt et al, 2005;Carpenter and Georgakakos, 2006a;Kavetski et al, 2006a;Moradkhani et al, 2005aMoradkhani et al, , 2005bMoradkhani et al, , 2006Oudin et al, 2006;Russo et al, 2006;…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Product‐error‐driven generator of probable rainfall conditioned on WSR‐88D precipitation estimates

Villarini

Krajewski

Ciach

et al. 2009

Water Resources Research

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[1] The existence of large errors in precipitation products delivered by the network of Weather Surveillance Radar, 1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) radars is broadly recognized. However, their quantitative characteristics remain poorly understood. Recently, the authors developed a functional-statistical model that quantifies the relation between radar rainfall and the corresponding true rainfall in a way that is applicable to the probabilistic quantitative precipitation estimation planned for future use by the U.S. National Weather Service. The model consists of a deterministic distortion function and a random uncertainty factor, both conditioned on given radar rainfall values. It also accounts for the spatiotemporal correlations in the random uncertainty factor. The model components were estimated on the basis of a 6-year-long data sample that considers the effects of seasons, range from radar, and time scales. In this study, the authors present two different applications of the aforementioned uncertainty model: (1) the estimation of rainfall probability maps and (2) the generation of radar rainfall ensembles. In the former, maps of the rainfall exceedance probability for any threshold are produced, given a radar rainfall map. We also present the analytical derivation of the exceedance probability maps at coarser spatial scales. In the latter, the users can generate ensembles of probable true rainfall fields that are consistent with the observed radar rainfall and its error structure. Simulation of the random component is based on the Cholesky decomposition method. Finally, the authors discuss possible uses of these applications in hydrology and hydroclimatology.

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Hydrologic analysis of the Fort Collins, Colorado, flash flood of 1997

Cited by 187 publications

References 28 publications

Improvement of resilience of urban areas by integrating social perception in flash-flood risk management

Improvement of resilience of urban areas by integrating social perception in flash-flood risk management

Caractéristiques multifractales et extrêmes de la précipitation à haute résolution, application à la détection du changement climatique

Product‐error‐driven generator of probable rainfall conditioned on WSR‐88D precipitation estimates

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