Hydrogen penetration and fuel cell vehicle deployment in the carbon constrained future energy system

Abstract

This research details outcomes from a global model which estimates future hydrogen penetration into a carbon constrained energy system to the year 2050. Focusing on minimum and maximum penetration scenarios, an investigation of global fuel cell vehicle (FCV) deployment is undertaken, cognizant of optimal economic deployment at the global level and stakeholder preferences in a case study of Japan. The model is mathematically formulated as a very large-scale linear optimization problem, aiming to minimize system costs, including generation type, fuel costs, conversion costs, and carbon reduction costs, subject to the constraint of carbon dioxide reductions for each nation. Results show that between approximately 0.8% and 2% of global energy consumption needs can be met by hydrogen out to the year 2050, with city gas and transport emerging as significant use cases. Passenger FCVs and hydrogen buses account for almost all of the hydrogen-based transportation sector, leading to a global deployment of approximately 120 million FCVs by 2050.Hydrogen production is reliant on fossil fuels, and OECD nations are net importers -especially Japan with a 100% import case. To underpin hydrogen production from fossil fuels, carbon capture and storage (CCS) is required in significant quantities when anticipating a large fleet of FCVs. Stakeholder engagement suggests optimism toward FCV deployment while policy issues identified include necessity for large-scale future energy system investment and rapid technical and economic feasibility progress for renewable energy technologies and electrolyzers to achieve a hydrogen economy that is not reliant on fossil fuels.

The Role of Hydrogen in Achieving Long Term Japanese Energy System Goals

“…This result highlights the need for policy-based incentives and interventions such as feed-in tariffs to promote hydrogen's penetration in the Japanese network [33]. Under the maximum hydrogen penetration case in [38], the authors identified a moderate role for hydrogen in city gas of approximately 272.14 GJ in 2050,~6% of all imported hydrogen utilized in Japan.…”

“…The study expresses the need for large scale investment to reduce hydrogen power costs, and voices concerns about the plan hinging on the simultaneous maturation of CCS technology. In addition to the city gas role identified in [38], electricity generation through direct firing or blending with LNG is identified as a major use case (~2345 GJ in 2050), accounting for~53% of all imported hydrogen utilization.…”

“…Due to high gasoline tax rates, Japan could be the first nation to achieve cost-competitive hydrogen deployment by 2025 using tube trailers for inter-region transportation, instead of pipelines, which are assumed to be more expensive. Transport is heavily underpinned by hydrogen in the model established in [38] with the total quantity set aside for transport estimated at 239.49 GJ, predominantly for passenger vehicles. This contribution is sufficient for the deployment of approximately 37.3 million passenger FCVs by 2050, about half of the 2017 passenger fleet.…”

Challenges toward achieving a successful hydrogen economy in the US: Potential end-use and infrastructure analysis to the year 2100

“…For the transportation sector, a barrier to hydrogen vehicle usage is high costs and inadequate refueling infrastructure. Overcoming these barriers was identified as a key enabler for the hydrogen economy in Japan (Chapman et al, 2020b).…”

An extendable soft‐switched high step‐up converter with near zero‐ripple input current suitable for fuel cell‐powered applications

“…Nowadays, global warming and air pollution caused by fossil fuels and their unreliable future supplies provide further impetus for researchers to discover alternative sources of harmful and non-renewable sources [1][2][3]. Fuel cells (FCs) are one of the alternative sources owing to their renewability and environmentally friendly characteristics [4][5][6]. Some of these FCs, such as proton-exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs), not only have zero emissions and noise cancellation abilities, but also have high energy density and low maintenance requirements [7][8][9].…”