Hydroclimatic and water quality trends across three Mediterranean river basins

Lutz, Stefanie; Mallucci, Stefano; Diamantini, Elena; Majone, Bruno; Bellin, Alberto; Merz, Ralf

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.07.102

Cited by 82 publications

(52 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…All climatic models project future scenarios of general decreases in river flows and increases in oscillations of flow intensity in the Mediterranean Basin [220]. The increased environmental presence of emerging pollutants can also impact on forests and their services such as food and water quality [130,[221][222][223]. This is already occurring and can even increase in the immediate future, thus diminishing the provision of clean water and hydroelectric production, with unpredictable socio-economic consequences [130].…”

Section: The Effects On Ecosystem Servicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Global Change on Mediterranean Forests and Their Services

Peñuelas

Sardans

Filella

et al. 2017

Forests

117

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The increase in aridity, mainly by decreases in precipitation but also by higher temperatures, is likely the main threat to the diversity and survival of Mediterranean forests. Changes in land use, including the abandonment of extensive crop activities, mainly in mountains and remote areas, and the increases in human settlements and demand for more resources with the resulting fragmentation of the landscape, hinder the establishment of appropriate management tools to protect Mediterranean forests and their provision of services and biodiversity. Experiments and observations indicate that if changes in climate, land use and other components of global change, such as pollution and overexploitation of resources, continue, the resilience of many forests will likely be exceeded, altering their structure and function and changing, mostly decreasing, their capacity to continue to provide their current services. A consistent assessment of the impacts of the changes, however, remains elusive due to the difficulty of obtaining simultaneous and complete data for all scales of the impacts in the same forests, areas and regions. We review the impacts of climate change and other components of global change and their interactions on the terrestrial forests of Mediterranean regions, with special attention to their impacts on ecosystem services. Management tools for counteracting the negative effects of global change on Mediterranean ecosystem- services are finally discussed.

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Section: The Effects On Ecosystem Servicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Global Change on Mediterranean Forests and Their Services

Peñuelas

Sardans

Filella

et al. 2017

Forests

117

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“…In this study, the trends in the WBCs were detected using the nonparametric MK test (Mann, 1945;Kendall, 1975) because it exhibits a better performance than the parametric test (Nalley et al, 2012) for identifying trends in hydrological variables, such as rainfall (Shahid, 2010), temperature (Kamruzzaman et al, 2016a), P ET (Kumar et al, 2016), soil moisture (Tabari and Talaee, 2013), runoff (Pathak et al, 2016), groundwater level , and water quality (Lutz et al, 2016). The MK test cannot be used to accurately calculate the test statistic (Z) if there exists a significant serial correlation at lag 1 in the time series data (Yue et al, 2002) because the variance is underestimated (Hamed and Rao, 1998).…”

Section: Trend Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the changes in water balance components of the highly irrigated western part of Bangladesh

Rahman

Ahmed

Adnan

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The objectives of the present study were to explore the changes in the water balance components (WBCs) by co-utilizing the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and different forms of the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and develop a wavelet denoise autoregressive integrated moving average (WD-ARIMA) model for forecasting the WBCs. The results revealed that most of the potential evapotranspiration (P ET ) trends (approximately 73 %) had a decreasing tendency from 1981-1982 to 2012-2013 in the western part of Bangladesh. However, most of the trends (approximately 82 %) were not statistically significant at a 5 % significance level. The actual evapotranspiration (A ET ), annual deficit, and annual surplus also exhibited a similar tendency. The rainfall and temperature exhibited increasing trends. However, the WBCs exhibited an inverse trend, which suggested that the P ET changes associated with temperature changes could not explain the change in the WBCs. Moreover, the 8-year (D3) and 16-year (D4) periodic components were generally responsible for the trends found in the original WBC data for the study area. The actual data was affected by noise, which resulted in the ARIMA model exhibiting an unsatisfactory performance. Therefore, wavelet denoising of the WBC time series was conducted to improve the performance of the ARIMA model. The quality of the denoising time series data was ensured using relevant statistical analysis. The performance of the WD-ARIMA model was assessed using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) coefficient and coefficient of determination (R 2 ). The WD-ARIMA model exhibited very good performance, which clearly demonstrated the advantages of denoising the time series data for forecasting the WBCs. The validation results of the model revealed that the forecasted values were very close to actual values, with an acceptable mean percentage error. The residuals also followed a normal distribution. The performance and validation results indicated that models can be used for the short-term forecasting of WBCs. Further studies on different combinations of wavelet analysis are required to develop a superior model for the hydrological forecasting in the context of climate change. The findings of this study can be used to improve water resource management in the highly irrigated western part of Bangladesh.

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“…It determines the change trend of sequence by calculating the standardization of time series statistics based on the correlation between the ranks of a time series and their time order [42,43]. It works for all distributions, and has been widely used in hydroclimatic fields [42,[44][45][46] (see the previous studies mentioned above for more details on the algorithm). Two parameters of UF and UB are usually used to represent the curve and reverse curve of the statistical sequence, respectively.…”

Section: Mann-kendall (M-k) Statistical Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Urban Sustainability Using a Multi-Scale, Theme-Based Indicator Framework: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta Region, China

2017

Sustainability

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Urban sustainability is a great concern worldwide. However, how to evaluate urban sustainability is still a big challenge because sustainable development is multifaceted and scale dependent, which demands various assessment methods and indicators that often do not reach a consensus. In this study, we assessed urban sustainability of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), China during 2000-2014 at two spatial scales (corresponding to the administrative levels of province and prefecture). A theme-based indicator framework, cluster analysis and Mann-Kendall test were used for urban sustainability assessment. Our results showed that the overall (OS), social (SS), and economic sustainability (EcS) scores for two provinces and sixteen prefectural cities increased from 2000 to 2014 in general, but the environmental sustainability (EnS) scores decreased over time. According to the performance of SS, EnS and EcS at the prefectural level, three distinct city clusters were identified: Cluster 1 with high SS and EcS but low EnS; Cluster 2 with low SS and EcS but high EnS; and Cluster 3 with moderate SS, EnS and EcS. The three sustainability dimensions-society, environment and economy-all changed over time and differed among cities at the two administrative levels. Our results implied that, according to the "strong sustainability" perspective, the cities of the YRD became less sustainable or unsustainable because the social and economic progresses were at the expense of the environment. The level of urban sustainability was lower at the provincial level than the prefectural level, implying that the problems of unsustainability are even greater at the provincial level than the prefectural level in the YRD region.

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Hydroclimatic and water quality trends across three Mediterranean river basins

Cited by 82 publications

References 59 publications

Impacts of Global Change on Mediterranean Forests and Their Services

Impacts of Global Change on Mediterranean Forests and Their Services

Modeling the changes in water balance components of the highly irrigated western part of Bangladesh

Assessing Urban Sustainability Using a Multi-Scale, Theme-Based Indicator Framework: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta Region, China

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