Hydroclimate variability and long-lead forecasting of rainfall over Thailand by large-scale atmospheric variables

Singhrattna, Nkrintra; Babel, Mukand S.; Perret, Sylvain

doi:10.1080/02626667.2011.633916

Cited by 20 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 48 publications

(57 reference statements)

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“…With respect to the observed 1961-1990 average MJJ rainfall, abovenormal rainfall will tend to occur during the 2020s and 2070s, whereas below-normal rainfall will tend to occur during the remaining periods. The increasing trend of rainfall in particular during the 2020s is consistent with Tao et al (2003), who presented the effects of climate change on increasing annual rainfall in Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, and Laos. Under the B2 scenario, the maximum MJJ rainfall (600.2 mm) will be found in 2022, corresponding to an anomaly of +1.86 mm.…”

Section: Annual Variability and Trendsupporting

confidence: 64%

Changes in summer monsoon rainfall in the Upper Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand

Singhrattna¹,

Babel²

2011

Clim. Res.

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We determined the effects of climate change on pre-monsoon (May-June-July: MJJ) and monsoon (August-September-October: ASO) season rainfall in the Upper Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand, by downscaling surface rainfall from large-scale atmospheric variables, i.e. surface air temperature (SAT), sea level pressure (SLP), and zonal and meridional wind (u and v, respectively). The data were obtained from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model and used as predictors in a modified k-nearest neighbor (k-nn) model. Under climate change scenarios A2 and B2, during 2011-2100, the increasing trends of annual SAT over northern Thailand and the South China Sea vary from 1.65 to 3.47°C century -1. By the end of the 21st century, the annual SAT anomalies range from + 2 to +10°C. The increasing trends of annual SLP over the Gulf of Thailand and northern Thailand range from 0.40 to 0.83 mb century -1. Depending upon the regions and scenarios, increasing and decreasing trends of annual u and v were observed. From the modified k-nn model, the effects of climate change on MJJ and ASO rainfall indicate decreasing trends during 2011-2100 with a maximum decrease by 6.16 mm yr -1 , corresponding to the ASO rainfall under Scenario B2. In terms of effects on the frequency of extreme events, dry (wet) conditions during 2011-2100 showed a greater (lesser) chance of occurrence than the climatology, with the exception of ASO rainfall under the Scenario A2, which showed a greater chance of being both dry and wet. With a probability > 70%, dry MJJ and ASO conditions will be observed more often than wet, especially the dry ASO under Scenario B2, which was predicted for the 55 yr from 2046 -2100. KEY WORDS: Climate change · Thailand rainfall · Upper Chao Phraya River Basin · Ping River BasinResale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisher Clim Res 49: 155-168, 2011 terms of intensity and frequency of extreme events. Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, in particular CO 2 , greatly influence global warming (Mitchell 1989, Maslin 2007, NIC 2009, NASA 2010. Consequently, climate change is expected to occur due to increasing global surface temperatures (UNEP 2003, Trenberth 2008. Since rainfall in Thailand shows significant links to large-scale atmospheric variables (LSAVs), e.g. temperature and pressure (Chen & Yoon 2000, Singhrattna et al. 2005b, the changing climate affects rainfall via atmospheric-oceanic circulations. The objective of this study was to determine the effects of climate change on summer monsoon season rainfall in the Upper Chao Phraya River Basin (Thailand). Rainfall simulation by a stochastic statistical model is a tool for long-term planning in water resources and an adaptation strategy to deal with future climate change. METHODSBased on the significant relationships between local hydroclimates (e.g. precipitation) and LSAVs (e.g. sea level pressure), LSAVs have been used as predictors in multiple regressions to forecast hydroclimates (Hamlet et al. 2002, McCa...

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Section: Annual Variability and Trendsupporting

confidence: 64%

Changes in summer monsoon rainfall in the Upper Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand

Singhrattna¹,

Babel²

2011

Clim. Res.

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“…To reveal the relationship between the rainfall activity during the pre-monsoon period and the start of monsoon circulation, a heat budget analysis for the area above the Indochina Peninsula during the pre-monsoon period is required. Recently, Singhrattna et al (2012) tried to forecast rainfall amount over Thailand using statistical approach. Their model presents better performance in pre-monsoon rainfall in dry years compared to wet years, in particular, at the lead time of 5-6 months, and vice versa for monsoon rainfall.…”

Section: Moisture In the Pre-monsoon Seasonmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pre-Monsoon Rain and Its Relationship with Monsoon Onset over the Indochina Peninsula

et al. 2016

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We analyzed rainfall during the pre-monsoon season from 1979 to 2002 over the Indochina Peninsula. Our multi-year analysis confirmed that the passage of the upper trough and moisture convergence in the lower troposphere produce intermittent rainfall events during the pre-monsoon season. From this result, three questions are raised. First, what are the characteristics of the upper trough? Second, what is the cause of the significant amount of moisture during the pre-monsoon season over inland Indochina? Third, what is the relationship between the intermittent pre-monsoon rainfall and monsoon onset? Our study suggests the following answers to these questions: (1) The upper trough is associated with the cyclone over the Yangtze River basin. This cyclone is baroclinic, so the upper trough over the study area is produced by the mid-latitude regime. (2) A significant amount of moisture over the Indochina Peninsula is produced by both intermittent rainfall associated with the passage of the upper trough and continuous rainfall occurred over a wide region associated with the equatorial southwesterly. (3) We found no clear relationship between rainfall amount during the pre-monsoon period and timing of monsoon onset over the Indochina Peninsula.

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“…Comparisons between meteorological data sets for Thailand and Pacific Ocean El Niño events have, for example, shown that summer monsoon precipitation over Thailand decreases as a result of El Niño events, leading to relatively drier conditions (Bridhikitti, 2013;Hsu et al, 2014;Loo et al, 2014;Singhrattna et al, 2005Singhrattna et al, , 2012 and more enriched isotopic values. The opposite is the case during La Niña events.…”

Section: Controls On δD Precipitation and δD Wax In Thailandmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lake Kumphawapi revisited – The complex climatic and environmental record of a tropical wetland in NE Thailand

et al. 2015

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Kumphawapi, which is Thailand’s largest natural freshwater lake, contains a >10,000-year-long climatic and environmental archive. New data sets (stratigraphy, chronology, hydrogen isotopes, plant macrofossil and charcoal records) for two sedimentary sequences are here combined with earlier multi-proxy studies to provide a comprehensive reconstruction of past climatic and environmental changes for Northeast Thailand. Gradually higher moisture availability due to a strengthening of the summer monsoon led to the formation of a large shallow lake in the Kumphawapi basin between >10,700 and c. 7000 cal. BP. The marked increase in moisture availability and lower evaporation between c. 7000 and 6400 cal. BP favoured the growth and expansion of vegetation in and around the shallow lake. The increase in biomass led to gradual overgrowing and infilling, to an apparent lake level lowering and to the development of a wetland. Multiple hiatuses are apparent in all investigated sequences between c. 6500 and 1400 cal. BP and are explained by periodic desiccation events of the wetland and erosion due to the subsequent lake level rise. The rise in lake level, which started c. 2000 cal. BP and reached shallower parts c. 1400 cal. BP, is attributed to an increase in effective moisture availability. The timing of hydroclimatic conditions during the past 2000 years cannot be resolved because of chronological limitations.

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Hydroclimate variability and long-lead forecasting of rainfall over Thailand by large-scale atmospheric variables

Cited by 20 publications

References 48 publications

Changes in summer monsoon rainfall in the Upper Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand

Changes in summer monsoon rainfall in the Upper Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand

Pre-Monsoon Rain and Its Relationship with Monsoon Onset over the Indochina Peninsula

Lake Kumphawapi revisited – The complex climatic and environmental record of a tropical wetland in NE Thailand

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