Hydro-BID Case Study No. 5: Impact of Climate Change on Proposed Water Investments in Chalpi Basin, Ecuador

Moreda, Fedaku; Daussa, Pedro Coli Valdes; Brantly, Eugene; Serago, Jake; Escurra, Jorge

doi:10.18235/0001121

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…Fourth, in northern Argentina, the Bermejo River basin was modeled [26]. Fifth, in Ecuador, at the Chalpi basin, water investments considering climate change were performed with the aid of HydroBID [27]. Another case study is the Guali River basin in Colombia.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implementation of HydroBID Model with Satellite-Based Precipitation Products in Guadalquivir Basin, Bolivia

Saavedra,

Ureña,

Perales

2023

Water

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The use of distributed precipitation data in hydrological models is critically important to simulate processes at a micro-basin scale. However, aerial precipitation at a high resolution is required to run these models. This study aimed to set up the HydroBID tool in the Guadalquivir River basin using satellite-based precipitation products. The employed products included GSMaP gauge version 6, interpolated rain gauges using Kriging, the combined GS product for Bolivia, and the proposed combined product for the Guadalquivir basin. The GS Guadalquivir was generated by combining the satellite-based product GSMaP gauge version 6 with the local rain gauge network. The main difference with GS Bolivia is the improvement of the resolution from 5 km to 250 m. An iteration scheme using 230 micro-basins was employed, reaching a correlation of 0.98 compared to the control dataset. By using the hydrological model with the precipitation products, the daily river discharge was obtained, showing a high correlation of 0.99 and efficiency of 0.96 in relation to observed data between 2000 and 2016 at Obrajes station. Simulated flows with Kriging and GS Guadalquivir products presented similarly high correlations compared to the observed flows. In the case of GSMaP and GS Bolivia, these products showed general underestimations of the simulated flows, reaching correlations between 0.28 and 0.91, respectively. Moreover, annual volumes were analyzed, where the overestimation of GSMaP, Kriging, and GS Guadalquivir showed similar characteristics concerning the distribution of specific river discharges and volumes. Therefore, HydroBID appeared to be a feasible tool with enough adaptability to use distributed precipitation and simulate flows at a micro-basin scale. Therefore, we recommend applying this scheme to other basins to carry out analysis of events, water balance, and floods and similar studies.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implementation of HydroBID Model with Satellite-Based Precipitation Products in Guadalquivir Basin, Bolivia

Saavedra,

Ureña,

Perales

2023

Water

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Hydrological response of a headwater catchment in the semi-arid Andes (30°S) to climate change

Yáñez San Francisco,

Pascual Aguilar,

MacDonell

2023

Journal of Water and Climate Change

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Globally, climate change has caused a significant reduction in snow cover in mountainous regions. To understand the impact of present and future snow changes on runoff in the semi-arid Andes, we applied the Hydro-BID hydrological model and associated datasets to the headwaters of the Elqui River basin (30°S) for current conditions and two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. Results show that model calibration at daily, monthly and annual time scales (R2 0.7, 0.7 and 0.8) and validation (R2 0.6, 0.7 and 0.7) were satisfactory. Future climate change scenario SSP2-4.5 indicates for 2040–2059, 2060–2079 and 2080–2099 temperature increases of 1.2, 1.6 and 1.9 °C and precipitation reductions of 26%, 29% and 36%. Discharge for SSP2-4.5 will reduce (the average annual flow decreases by 54%, 58% and 66%). For the same periods, SSP5-8.5 projects temperature increases of 1.5, 2.6 and 3.7 °C and precipitation reductions of 28%, 39% and 44%. Compared with SSP2-4.5, river discharge will experience a more acute reduction (projected annual decrease of 57%, 70% and 77%). Model results indicate that the maximum flow will be reached three months earlier than today. Results reinforce the importance of snow for runoff in the semi-arid Andes and the applicability of Hydro-BID in mountainous regions.

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Evaluación de la respuesta hidrológica a cambios de precipitación y temperatura en el altiplano peruano

Laqui,

Zubieta,

Laqui-Vilca

et al. 2024

Tecnol. cienc. agua

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Las cuencas de montaña son consideradas como los sistemas hidrológicos de mayor afectación por el cambio climático, estimándose impactos significativos en los recursos hídricos y las demandas de agua. Este estudio evalúa la respuesta hidrológica de una cuenca del altiplano peruano frente a cambios de los patrones de precipitación y temperatura. El conocer con anticipación el efecto del cambio climático sobre la oferta hídrica toma relevante importancia para la toma de decisiones en la planificación a corto, mediano y largo plazos del uso del agua y la gestión de los recursos hídricos. A partir de la implementación del Modelo Integrado de Cambio Climático y Recursos Hídricos (HydroBID) se evaluaron 30 escenarios climáticos que consideraron cambios en la precipitación entre -20 y +20 %, temperatura entre 0 y 6 °C, y combinaciones de éstos formulados según las proyecciones para el área de estudio disponibles en la literatura. Los resultados mostraron que por cada 10 % de incremento de la precipitación se produjo un aumento promedio de 23.4 % en el caudal; mientras que por cada 10 % de disminución de la precipitación se generó una reducción promedio del caudal de 16 %. Asimismo, se evidenció que por cada 1 °C de subida de la temperatura se generó en promedio un 5 % de reducción del caudal. Se determinó que la variación de las tasas de precipitación, temperatura y su interacción entre ellas generarían cambios en los caudales futuros, mostrando efectos en la variación temporal y espacial de la cuenca.

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Hydro-BID Case Study No. 5: Impact of Climate Change on Proposed Water Investments in Chalpi Basin, Ecuador

Cited by 3 publications

References 0 publications

Implementation of HydroBID Model with Satellite-Based Precipitation Products in Guadalquivir Basin, Bolivia

Implementation of HydroBID Model with Satellite-Based Precipitation Products in Guadalquivir Basin, Bolivia

Hydrological response of a headwater catchment in the semi-arid Andes (30°S) to climate change

Evaluación de la respuesta hidrológica a cambios de precipitación y temperatura en el altiplano peruano

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