Hybrid Seasonal Prediction of Meridional Temperature Gradient Associated with “Warm Arctic-Cold Eurasia”

Xu, Tianbao; Yin, Zhicong; Ma, Xuexi; Huang, Yulin; Wang, Huijun

doi:10.1007/s00376-023-2226-3

Cited by 3 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…It is interesting that when there is a negative prediction bias (third quadrant in Figure 2b), its corresponding SAT AE ‐S is almost negative. This shows the frequent SR‐WACE is an important source for prediction bias of seasonal WACE (T. B. Xu et al., 2023). To improve the prediction skill, further exploration is needed regarding the key physical processes associated with the SR‐WACE in climate models.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The SAT difference between the Barents–Kara Sea (SAT A ; 65°–85°N, 30°–90°E) and Eurasia (SAT E ; 40°–60°N, 60°–120°E) (former minus latter) is defined as the SAT AE , which can adequately depict the variability characteristics of the WACE pattern (Kim et al., 2021; T. B. Xu et al., 2023). The SH index (SHI) is defined as the area‐averaged SLP over central Siberia (40°–60°N, 80°–120°E) and the UB index (UBI) is defined as the regional average of Z500 within the region of (55°–70°N, 50°–100°E) (Zhang et al., 2021).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, from 1 December to 14 January and 15 January to 28 February are defined as the early and late winter, respectively. The difference in the indexes defined above between early and late winter are SAT A ‐S, SAT E ‐S, SAT AE ‐S, SHI‐S and UBI‐S, which can represent the subseasonal variations between early and late winter (T. B. Xu et al., 2023).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The SAT difference between the Barents-Kara Sea (SAT A ; 65°-85°N, 30°-90°E) and Eurasia (SAT E ; 40°-60°N, 60°-120°E) (former minus latter) is defined as the SAT AE , which can adequately depict the variability characteristics of the WACE pattern (Kim et al, 2021;T. B. Xu et al, 2023).…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Identification of Shortcomings in Simulating the Subseasonal Reversal of the Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia Pattern

Xu,

Yin,

Zhang

et al. 2024

Geophysical Research Letters

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Subseasonal reversal of warm Arctic–cold Eurasia (SR‐WACE) pattern has significant impacts on transitions of weather and climate extremes in Eurasia. This study explored the performances of climate models to simulate the main features of SR‐WACE. For real‐time predictions, most of the state‐of‐the‐art climate models showed limited ability to accurately forecast SR‐WACE in advance. Furthermore, most of the historical simulations from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) had also difficulties in well simulating the SR‐WACE. Further exploration showed that the simultaneous reversal of the Ural blocking high (UB) and Siberian high (SH) is the key atmospheric driver of the SR‐WACE occurrences, which were verified by both of the real‐time predictions and historical simulations. Our results implied that the simulation of SR‐WACE was a huge challenge and the critical solutions included improving simulation of subseasonal reversals of UB and SH in the atmosphere.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Identification of Shortcomings in Simulating the Subseasonal Reversal of the Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia Pattern

Xu,

Yin,

Zhang

et al. 2024

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…Previous research has tended to focus on investigating the relationship between the autumn sea ice and Eurasian surface air temperature (SAT) in winter (Zuo et al 2016, Wegmann et al 2018. However, an increasing number of studies have found that the subseasonal variations in Eurasian winter SAT exhibit more intricate changes (Dai et al 2019, presenting significant challenges for climate forecasting (Xu et al 2023(Xu et al , 2024. For instance, the warm Arctic-cold Eurasia (WACE) pattern in Eurasia can maintain a strong intensity on the subseasonal timescale, which leads to extreme climate events.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Different responses of surface air temperature over Eurasia in early and late winter to the autumn Kara–Laptev Sea ice

Guo,

Yin,

et al. 2024

Environ. Res. Lett.

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The Arctic climate is changing rapidly, along with intensified melting of sea ice, which has significant impacts on surface air temperature (SAT) in Eurasia. This study reveals that the subseasonal response of SAT to the autumn Kara–Laptev Sea ice (KLSIC) differs significantly between early and late winter. The response of SAT to KLSIC forms a warm Arctic–cold Eurasia pattern in early winter. Conversely, the negative anomaly response of SAT to KLSIC in late winter is only distributed in the band range of Eurasia, without significant positive SAT anomaly over the Arctic Ocean. After further examination of the separate physical mechanisms involved in early and late winter, it is found that a decrease in KLSIC in autumn can lead to a strengthened Ural high and Siberian high in the Arctic–Eurasia region, which is conducive to cold events in the mid-latitudes of Eurasia in early winter. For late winter, a westward shift in the response of atmospheric circulation to KLSIC leads to a negative anomaly feedback of North Sea surface temperature, which triggers the propagation of Rossby waves to the Sea of Japan through the wave activity flux. Meanwhile, the deep trough of East Asia is strengthened and extends to the southeast, guiding northern cold air to the western Pacific. Our results highlight that different subseasonal effects of sea ice should be considered in Eurasian climate prediction, rather than only consider the effects in winter mean.

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Seasonal prediction of midsummer compound heat-humidity events over Southeast China

Han,

Sun,

Zhi

et al. 2024

Atmospheric Research

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Hybrid Seasonal Prediction of Meridional Temperature Gradient Associated with “Warm Arctic-Cold Eurasia”

Cited by 3 publications

References 54 publications

Identification of Shortcomings in Simulating the Subseasonal Reversal of the Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia Pattern

Identification of Shortcomings in Simulating the Subseasonal Reversal of the Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia Pattern

Different responses of surface air temperature over Eurasia in early and late winter to the autumn Kara–Laptev Sea ice

Seasonal prediction of midsummer compound heat-humidity events over Southeast China

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