Background-Incidence of dementia increases exponentially with age; little is known about its risk factors in the ninth and tenth decades of life. We identified predictors of dementia with onset after age 85y in a longitudinal population-based cohort.Methods-Based on annual assessments, incident cases of dementia were defined as those newly receiving Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR®) ≥1. We used a machine learning method, Markov modeling with HyDaP clustering, to identify variables associated with subsequent incident dementia.Results-Of 1,439 participants, 641 reached age 85y during ten years of follow-up and 45 of these became incident dementia cases. Using HyDaP, among those aged 85+y, probability of incident dementia was associated with worse self-rated health, more prescription drugs, subjective memory complaints, heart disease, cardiac arrhythmia, thyroid disease, arthritis, reported hypertension, higher systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and hearing impairment. In the