Hurricane wind regimes for forests of North America

Cannon, Jeffery B.; Peterson, Chris J.; Godfrey, Christopher M.; Whelan, Andrew W.

doi:10.1073/pnas.2309076120

Cited by 7 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 79 publications

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“…Moreover, a changing cyclone disturbance regime as high‐intensity cyclones become more prevalent and move to higher latitudes could alter selection pressures (e.g. Cannon et al., 2023). If cyclones of proposed Category‐6 intensity became recurrent in a region, it may become impossible to maintain populations of tree species of low wood density if they cannot grow to maturity fast enough to set seed between cyclones or cannot be maintained by resprouting (Batista & Platt, 2003; Bellingham et al., 1995).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Damage to tropical forests caused by cyclones is driven by wind speed but mediated by topographical exposure and tree characteristics

Ibanez,

Bauman,

Aiba

et al. 2024

Global Change Biology

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Each year, an average of 45 tropical cyclones affect coastal areas and potentially impact forests. The proportion of the most intense cyclones has increased over the past four decades and is predicted to continue to do so. Yet, it remains uncertain how topographical exposure and tree characteristics can mediate the damage caused by increasing wind speed. Here, we compiled empirical data on the damage caused by 11 cyclones occurring over the past 40 years, from 74 forest plots representing tropical regions worldwide, encompassing field data for 22,176 trees and 815 species. We reconstructed the wind structure of those tropical cyclones to estimate the maximum sustained wind speed (MSW) and wind direction at the studied plots. Then, we used a causal inference framework combined with Bayesian generalised linear mixed models to understand and quantify the causal effects of MSW, topographical exposure to wind (EXP), tree size (DBH) and species wood density (ρ) on the proportion of damaged trees at the community level, and on the probability of snapping or uprooting at the tree level. The probability of snapping or uprooting at the tree level and, hence, the proportion of damaged trees at the community level, increased with increasing MSW, and with increasing EXP accentuating the damaging effects of cyclones, in particular at higher wind speeds. Higher ρ decreased the probability of snapping and to a lesser extent of uprooting. Larger trees tended to have lower probabilities of snapping but increased probabilities of uprooting. Importantly, the effect of ρ decreasing the probabilities of snapping was more marked for smaller than larger trees and was further accentuated at higher MSW. Our work emphasises how local topography, tree size and species wood density together mediate cyclone damage to tropical forests, facilitating better predictions of the impacts of such disturbances in an increasingly windier world.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Damage to tropical forests caused by cyclones is driven by wind speed but mediated by topographical exposure and tree characteristics

Ibanez,

Bauman,

Aiba

et al. 2024

Global Change Biology

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“…The coastal plain from eastern Texas to North Carolina experiences the highest frequency of hurricanes in the Western Hemisphere (Cannon et al., 2023 ; Doyle, 2009 ; Weinkle et al., 2012 ). While hurricanes are less frequent than tornadoes, they cause significantly more damage per event owing to their greater size and longer duration (Peterson, 2000 ; Zeng et al., 2009 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The coastal plain from eastern Texas to North Carolina experiences the highest frequency of hurricanes in the Western Hemisphere (Cannon et al, 2023;Doyle, 2009;Weinkle et al, 2012).…”

Section: Gravesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Catastrophic storms, forest disturbance, and the natural history of Swainson's warbler

Graves

2024

Ecology and Evolution

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The core breeding range of Swainson's warbler (Limnothlypis swainsonii) overlaps a zone of exceptionally high tornado frequency in southeastern North America. The importance of tornadoes in creating breeding habitat for this globally rare warbler and other disturbance‐dependent species has been largely overlooked. This paper estimates tornado frequency (1950–2021) and forest disturbance in the 240 counties and parishes in which breeding was documented from 1988 to 2014. The frequency of destructive tornadoes (EF1‐EF5) varied 6‐fold across the breeding range with a peak in the Gulf Coast states. Counties from east Texas to Alabama experienced the lowest median return interval of 5.4 years per 1000 km2, resulting in approximately 2477 ha of forest damage per 1000 km2 per century, based on current forestland cover. Tornadoes were significantly less frequent north and east of the core breeding range, with return intervals increasing to 9.1 years per 1000 km2 for breeding counties on the Atlantic coastal plain, 10.2 years per 1000 km2 in the Ozark Mountains, and 32.3 years per 1000 km2 in the Appalachian Mountains. Breeding counties within 150 km of the coastline from east Texas to North Carolina are also subjected to the highest frequency of hurricanes in the Western Hemisphere. Hurricanes often cause massive forest damage but archived meteorological and forestry data are insufficient to estimate the aggregate extent of forest disturbance in breeding counties. Nevertheless, the combined impact of tornadoes and hurricanes in the pre‐Anthropogenic era was likely sufficient to produce a dynamic mosaic of early‐successional forest crucial for the breeding ecology of Swainson's warbler. To ensure the long‐term survival of this rare warbler, it is advisable to develop habitat management plans that incorporate remote sensing data on early‐successional forest generated by catastrophic storms as well as anthropogenic activities.

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