Hurricane-induced waves and storm surge modeling for the Mexican coast

Abstract

This paper describes the application of a thirdgeneration wave model and a hydrodynamic model to determine extreme waves and water levels associated to the incidence of tropical cyclones along the Mexican coast. In addition to historical records and to overcome the limitation associated to data scarcity in Mexico, we employ information from 3100 synthetic events generated from a statistical/deterministic hurricane model. This enables the generation of a more robust database for the characterization of extreme water levels along the Mexican coast. The procedure incorporates a storm track modeling approach where, for each hurricane (historic and synthetic), the entire track is numerically reproduced as it crosses the ocean and makes landfall. Extreme values for both, waves and storm surge, are determined through an extreme value analysis at each mesh element, allowing for the identification of their spatial variability. Results for the Gulf of Mexico show that highest waves are expected along both the Caribbean Sea and the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico, while extreme water levels due to storm surge are identified in the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula. On the other hand, along the Pacific coast, extreme values for waves are identified at the central mainland Mexico while storm surge is minimal. The methodology is proved to be a good alternative in the reproduction of continuously varying tropical cyclone climatology along the Mexican coastline, and it provides a rational approach for assessing the hurricane-induced risk in coastal areas.

Evaluación de la marea de tormenta en sitios con escasez de datos: río Pánuco, México

“…Con el propósito de obtener campos de viento que sirvan de referencia a los generados de manera sintética, se utilizaron los datos correspondientes a los 25 eventos históricos de la base de datos extendida del HURDAT [31], ocurridos entre 1951 y 2012. Para mayor información en la generación de campos de viento se recomienda consultar Meza-Padilla et al [35].…”

“…Debido a la falta de mediciones del nivel medio del mar durante ciclones tropicales en la zona de estudio, la calibración del modelo se realizó con el evento Ike (2008) y los valores medidos en la zona costera de Galveston, Texas. Los parámetros establecidos durante la calibración fueron los utilizados en el trabajo de Meza-Padilla et al [35].…”

The role of tidal modulation in coastal flooding on a micro-tidal coast during Central American Cold Surge events

“…The hazard due to hurricane storm surge in the Yucatan coast has been investigated previously 20 (Meza-Padilla et al, 2015;Posada-Vanegas et al, 2011) as well as the hurricane flood risk (Rey et al, 2016) and hence is beyond the scope of the present study. Therefore, the aim of this study is to assess flood hazards caused by CACS in the northern Yucatan Peninsula with emphasis on evaluating the relative contribution of storm surge and wave set-up in Progreso, Yucatan.…”

“…The HD model used for this study was the MIKE 21, developed by DHI Water & Environment, which resolves the two dimensional shallow waters equations -the depth-integrated incompressible Reynolds Navier-Stokes equations invoking the assumptions of Boussinesq and Hydrostatic pressure (DHI, 2014a) This model has been successfully used in recent scientific studies (Appendini et al, 2014;Meza-Padilla et al, 2015;Strauss et al, 2007) Integration of the horizontal momentum equations and the continuity 25…”

“…On one hand, extreme meteorological phenomena such Central American Cold Surge (CACS) and tropical cyclones are ubiquitous 20 in this area (Meza-Padilla et al, 2015;Posada-Vanegas et al, 2011;Rey et al, 2016). On the other hand, the region is characterized by a wide and shallow continental shelf (CS), a low-lying coast, the presence of semi-enclosed back-barrier water bodies (lagoons, ports, wetlands).…”