Hurricane-induced power outage risk under climate change is primarily driven by the uncertainty in projections of future hurricane frequency

Alemazkoor, Negin; Rachunok, Benjamin; Chavas, Daniel R.; Staid, Andrea; Louhghalam, Arghavan; Nateghi, Roshanak; Tootkaboni, Mazdak

doi:10.1038/s41598-020-72207-z

Cited by 26 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…Power outages, infrastructure damage, and challenges with adequately managing energy demand are well-known consequences of extreme weather and weather-related disruptions, including storms, heat waves, wildfires, and flooding (IEA, 2021a). In the U.S., for example, blackouts from extreme weather events cost an estimated $20 to $55 billion annually (Nik et al, 2021), and hurricanes are a major cause of power outages that have contributed to substantial loss of life and infrastructure (Alemazkoor et al, 2020). Extreme heat stresses the electric grid, resulting in increased demand for air conditioning and a loss in transmission and distribution efficiency (Añel et al, 2017).…”

Section: Energy Resilience and Global Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Satellite Data Applications for Sustainable Energy Transitions

Edwards¹,

Holloway²,

Pierce³

et al. 2022

Front. Sustain.

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Transitioning to a sustainable energy system poses a massive challenge to communities, nations, and the global economy in the next decade and beyond. A growing portfolio of satellite data products is available to support this transition. Satellite data complement other information sources to provide a more complete picture of the global energy system, often with continuous spatial coverage over targeted areas or even the entire Earth. We find that satellite data are already being applied to a wide range of energy issues with varying information needs, from planning and operation of renewable energy projects, to tracking changing patterns in energy access and use, to monitoring environmental impacts and verifying the effectiveness of emissions reduction efforts. While satellite data could play a larger role throughout the policy and planning lifecycle, there are technical, social, and structural barriers to their increased use. We conclude with a discussion of opportunities for satellite data applications to energy and recommendations for research to maximize the value of satellite data for sustainable energy transitions.

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Section: Energy Resilience and Global Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Satellite Data Applications for Sustainable Energy Transitions

Edwards¹,

Holloway²,

Pierce³

et al. 2022

Front. Sustain.

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“…The Sobol indices, established in [44], are based on the variance method, quantifying the contribution of each parameter concerning the total variance of the model. It has recently been used in many works, with high impact research, as in [2,35]. One of its main advantages is dealing with nonlinear and non-parameterized models and providing a quantitative and qualitative classification.…”

Section: Global Sensitivity Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Global sensitivity analysis of asymmetric energy harvesters

Norenberg¹,

Cunha²,

Silva³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Parametric variability is inevitable in actual energy harvesters and can define crucial aspects of the system performance, especially in susceptible systems to small perturbations. In this way, this work aims to identify the most critical parameters in the dynamics of (a)symmetric bistable energy harvesters with nonlinear piezoelectric coupling, considering the variability of their physical and excitation parameters. For this purpose, a global sensitivity analysis based on the Sobol' indices is performed by an orthogonal decomposition in terms of conditional variances to access the dependence of the recovered power concerning the harvester parameters. This technique quantifies the variance concerning each parameter individually and jointly regarding the total variation of the model. The results indicate that the frequency and amplitude of excitation, asymmetric bias angle, and piezoelectric coupling at the electrical domain are the most influential parameters that affect the mean power harvested. It has also been shown that the order of importance of the parameters can change from stable conditions. In possession of this, a better

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“…They are the first comprehensive attempt to quantify both the possible response of TCs to climate change and the uncertainty around that response. Better estimates of the possible impact of climate change on TCs can improve estimates of the possible impacts of TCs, which are used in various sectors of society, such as insurance, energy and government (Hall and Jewson, 2007; Lee et al ., 2018; Sobel et al ., 2019; Alemazkoor et al ., 2020; Bloemendaal et al ., 2020; Arthur, 2021; Bennett et al ., 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The interpretation and implications of the Knutsonet al. 2020 projections of changes in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones under climate change

Jewson

2022

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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A recent meta-study presented distributions of the possible impacts of climate change on the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones for the six main tropical cyclone basins, summarizing many previous studies. However, it is not obvious how to interpret the distributions given in the meta-study. I describe algorithms that can be used to interpret the changes in frequency and intensity in a mutually consistent way. I then investigate the nature of the relationships between the changes in frequency and intensity and find that the intensity changes are just a different way of looking at the information provided by the changes in frequency. The mean of the mean intensity distribution increases in all basins. In some basins this increase is associated mostly with an increasing frequency of the most intense tropical cyclones, while in other basins it is associated mostly with a decreasing frequency of less intense tropical cyclones. I consider the implications for a simple measure of risk that combines changes in frequency and intensity, and find that the most extreme risks increase for five out of six of the basins using this measure. The results of this study can be used to produce mutually consistent simulations of changes in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity. These can be used for further analysis of the effects of climate change on tropical cyclones. However, the results come with the major caveat that there are many uncertainties in the inputs and in the various steps of analysis. Finally, I give recommendations for which metrics could usefully be extracted from climate models in future studies of tropical cyclones under climate change to help with interpretation and impacts studies.

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Hurricane-induced power outage risk under climate change is primarily driven by the uncertainty in projections of future hurricane frequency

Cited by 26 publications

References 54 publications

Satellite Data Applications for Sustainable Energy Transitions

Satellite Data Applications for Sustainable Energy Transitions

Global sensitivity analysis of asymmetric energy harvesters

The interpretation and implications of the Knutsonet al. 2020 projections of changes in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones under climate change

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