Hurricane forecasts with a global mesoscale‐resolving model: Preliminary results with Hurricane Katrina (2005)

Shen, Bo-Wen; Atlas, Robert; Reale, Oreste; Lin, Shian‐Jiann; Chern, J.; Chang, Junghwan; Henze, Christopher E.; Li, J.-L.

doi:10.1029/2006gl026143

Cited by 65 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…The exaggerated storm intensities in the model may have affected the storm track (e.g., Fovell and Su, 2007). Similar track errors were found in Shen et al (2006), who used a general circulation model to assess the impact of cumulus parameterization on hurricane predictability at 0.125 o resolution. Track errors were even larger (3~4 degree) in the WRF simulations (30 km resolution) by Rosenfeld et al (2007) who studied the impact of sub-micron aerosols via warm rain suppression.…”

Section: B Resultssupporting

confidence: 67%

The impact of microphysical schemes on hurricane intensity and track

Wei

Shi

Chen

et al. 2011

Asia-Pacific J Atmos Sci

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During the past decade, both research and operational numerical weather prediction models [e.g. the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF)] have started using more complex microphysical schemes originally developed for high-resolution cloud resolving models (CRMs) with 1-2 km or less horizontal resolutions. WRF is a next-generation meso-scale forecast model and assimilation system. It incorporates a modern software framework, advanced dynamics, numerics and data assimilation techniques, a multiple moveable nesting capability, and improved physical packages. WRF can be used for a wide range of applications, from idealized research to operational forecasting, with an emphasis on horizontal grid sizes in the range of 1-10 km. The current WRF includes several different microphysics options. At NASA Goddard, four different cloud microphysics options have been implemented into WRF. The performance of these schemes is compared to those of the other microphysics schemes available in WRF for an Atlantic hurricane case (Katrina). In addition, a brief review of previous modeling studies on the impact of microphysics schemes and processes on the intensity and track of hurricanes is presented and compared against the current Katrina study. In general, all of the studies show that microphysics schemes do not have a major impact on track forecasts but do have more of an effect on the simulated intensity. Also, nearly all of the previous studies found that simulated hurricanes had the strongest deepening or intensification when using only warm rain physics. This is because all of the simulated precipitating hydrometeors are large raindrops that quickly fall out near the eye-wall region, which would hydrostatically produce the lowest pressure. In addition, these studies suggested that intensities become unrealistically strong when evaporative cooling from cloud droplets and melting from ice particles are removed as this results in much weaker downdrafts in the simulated storms. However, there are many differences between the different modeling studies, which are identified and discussed.

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Section: B Resultssupporting

confidence: 67%

The impact of microphysical schemes on hurricane intensity and track

Wei

Shi

Chen

et al. 2011

Asia-Pacific J Atmos Sci

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“…However, because their simulations were not validated, it is uncertain whether or not their simulated tropical storms were realistic. Shen et al (2006) also simulated Hurricane Katrina with a 0.125° grid mesoscaleresolving finite-volume GCM. Although they showed that a high-resolution model provides better intensity forecasts than low-resolution one, only one initial case was shown, and other initial cases are unknown.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Verification of Typhoon Forecasts for a 20 km-mesh High-Resolution Global Model

Murakami

Matsumura

Sakai

et al. 2008

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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In this study, twelve tropical storms between 2002 and 2005 over the western North Pacific Ocean, namely, typhoons, were simulated through medium-range forecast experiments with the 20 km-mesh Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) Atmospheric General Circulation Model (JM-AGCM). These simulations were compared with the 60 km-mesh JMA Global Spectral Model (GSM) to evaluate differences in resolution. They are verified with the best-track data as an observation. The verification was conducted in terms of estimating error of position, intensifying tendency, radius of 50 knot, 30 knot, and composite wind profile. This paper addresses the importance of such high resolution to predict typhoon's intensity and inner-core structure.As a result, the JM-AGCM shows slightly smaller position error than the GSM. Moreover, much improvement was seen in the intensity prediction. The JM-AGCM outstandingly can both decrease the central sea level pressure and increase maximum wind velocity, while the GSM can not simulate them because of low resolution. The JM-AGCM also shows better intensifying and decaying tendency than the GSM.The verifications of 50 knot and 30 knot radii, and the composite wind profile indicate that the typhoon structure by the JM-AGCM is quite realistic. Moreover, the JM-AGCM expresses the drastic transformation of inner-core wind profile within 100km from the typhoon center more realistically than the GSM. These results indicate that a high resolution global model, such as 20 km-mesh, is vital when discussing the intensity and wind profile of tropical storms.Corresponding author and present affiliation: Hiroyuki Murakami,

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“…Indeed, despite the disastrous effects of hurricanes on coastal and inland communities are well known (O'Hare 2001, Pielke et al 2003, Watson & Johnson 2005, there is still a need to better understand the contributions to hazards of the different mechanisms related to hurricanes strike like storm surge, floods and high winds. In fact, it is well known that hurricane hazard is 'controlled by' or 'dependent on' a large and complex set of natural and human induced environmental factors (Howard et al 2003, Shen et al 2005, Pielke et al 2008), but to complicate matters further, hurricane related events like storm surges, floods and high winds, require forecasting appraisal that is often founded upon different methods, techniques and tools (Jiang et al 2003. All that calls for a multidisciplinary and integrated approach: in this sense, technologies such as GIS and Remote Sensing (RS) have raised great expectations as potential means of coping with natural disasters like hurricanes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%