Human Stampedes: A Systematic Review of Historical and Peer-Reviewed Sources

Ngai, Ka Ming; Burkle, Frederick M.; Hsu, Anthony; Hsu, Edbert B.

doi:10.1097/dmp.0b013e3181c5b494

Cited by 64 publications

(66 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…, 2 , 3 , 10 , 11 In this study, we explored and validated the need for improvement of reporting systems. The recent increased in the number of reported human stampedes is multifactorial.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing Two Epidemiologic Surveillance Methods to Assess Underestimation of Human Stampedes in India

Ngai

Lee²,

Madan

et al. 2013

PLoS Curr

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Background: Two separate but complementary epidemiologic surveillance methods for human stampedes have emerged since the publication of the topic in 2009. The objective of this study is to estimate the degree of underreporting in India. Method: The Ngai Search Method was compared to the Roy Search Method for human stampede events occurring in India between 2001 and 2010. Results: A total of 40 stampedes were identified by both search methods. Using the Ngai method, 34 human stampedes were identified. Using a previously defined stampede scale: 2 events were class I, 21 events were class II, 8 events were class III, and 3 events were class IV. The median deaths were 5.5 per event and median injuries were 13.5 per event. Using the Roy method, 27 events were identified, including 9 events that were not identified by the Ngai method. After excluding events based on exclusion criteria, six additional events identified by the Roy’s method had a median of 4 deaths and 30 injuries. In multivariate analysis using the Ngai method, religious (6.52, 95%CI 1.73-24.66, p=0.006) and political (277.09, 95%CI 5.12-15,001.96, p=0.006) events had higher relative number of deaths. Conclusion: Many causes accounting for the global increase in human stampede events can only be elucidated through systematic epidemiological investigation. Focusing on a country with a high recurrence of human stampedes, we compare two independent methods of data abstraction in an effort to improve the existing database and to identify pertinent risk factors. We concluded that our previous publication underestimated stampede events in India by approximately 18% and an international standardized database to systematically record occurrence of human stampedes is needed to facilitate understanding of the epidemiology of human stampedes.

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“…, 2 , 3 , 10 , 11 In this study, we explored and validated the need for improvement of reporting systems. The recent increased in the number of reported human stampedes is multifactorial.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing Two Epidemiologic Surveillance Methods to Assess Underestimation of Human Stampedes in India

Ngai

Lee²,

Madan

et al. 2013

PLoS Curr

Self Cite

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“…Super-aggregation in adversity may also take place in humans, as suggested by the occurrence of sudden bank runs [10][11][12] and human stampedes [13][14][15][16][17][18][19]. It is, however, unclear whether these events actually emerge from superaggregation, from other causes such as sudden changes in the private information towards a single preferred option, or from a combination of both.…”

Section: Contrast With Experimental Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Adversity magnifies the importance of social information in decision-making

Pérez‐Escudero

Polavieja

2016

Preprint

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Decision-making theories explain animal behaviour, including human behaviour, as a response to estimations about the environment. In the case of collective behaviour, they have given quantitative predictions of how animals follow the majority option. However, they have so far failed to explain that in some species and contexts social cohesion increases when conditions become more adverse (i.e. individuals choose the majority option with higher probability when the estimated quality of all available options decreases). We have found that this failure is due to modelling simplifications that aided analysis, like low levels of stochasticity or the assumption that only one choice is the correct one. We provide a more general but simple geometric framework to describe optimal or suboptimal decisions in collectives that gives insight into three different mechanisms behind this effect. The three mechanisms have in common that the private information acts as a gain factor to social information: a decrease in the privately estimated quality of all available options increases the impact of social information, even when social information itself remains unchanged. This increase in the importance of social information makes it more likely that agents will follow the majority option. We show that these results quantitatively explain collective behaviour in fish and experiments of social influence in humans.

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“…Understanding and controlling such phenomena has significant practical relevance in civil protection applications such as, for example, the management of large scale public events [17] or the 2010 German Love Parade disaster where 21 people were trampled to death (with more than 500 having been injured) when a mass panic broke out [18].…”

Section: The Crowd Management Use Casementioning

confidence: 99%

Smart crowds in smart cities: real life, city scale deployments of a smartphone based participatory crowd management platform

Franke

Lukowicz

Blanke

2015

J Internet Serv Appl

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We describe a platform for smart, city-wide crowd management based on participatory mobile phone sensing and location/situation specific information delivery. The platform supports quick and flexible deployments of end-to-end applications for specific events or spaces that include four key functionalities: (1) Mobile phone based delivery of event/space specific information to the users, (2) participatory sensor data collection (from app users) and flexible analysis, (3) location and situation specific message multicast instructing people in different areas to act differently in case of an emergency and (4) post mortem event analysis. This paper describes the requirements that were derived through a series of test deployments, the system architecture, the implementation and the experiences made during real life, large scale deployments. Thus, until today it has been deployed at 14 events in three European countries (UK, Netherlands, Switzerland) and was used by well over 100,000 people.

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Human Stampedes: A Systematic Review of Historical and Peer-Reviewed Sources

Cited by 64 publications

References 31 publications

Comparing Two Epidemiologic Surveillance Methods to Assess Underestimation of Human Stampedes in India

Comparing Two Epidemiologic Surveillance Methods to Assess Underestimation of Human Stampedes in India

Adversity magnifies the importance of social information in decision-making

Smart crowds in smart cities: real life, city scale deployments of a smartphone based participatory crowd management platform

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