Human settlement drives African elephant (Loxodonta africana) movement in the Sebungwe Region, Zimbabwe

Abstract

Understanding the key drivers that influence the potential distribution of herbivore species in changing landscapes has been at the centre of enquiry in wildlife science for many decades. This knowledge is particularly important for keystone species like the African elephant (Loxodonta africana) whose population is declining even in conservation areas. The Sebungwe Region is part of the Kavango‐Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area and supports ~4,000 elephants. The Sebungwe Region has lost an estimated 76% of its elephant population over the years. This study aimed to determine how the elephant distribution in the Sebungwe Region was affected by human settlement and whether the patches for elephant distribution were large enough for elephant habitation. The prediction of the potential distribution of the elephant was based on presence‐only data modelled through an ensemble algorithm that combined several candidate models to enhance predictive ability. We observed that human settlement drives the potential distribution of elephants in the Sebungwe Region (test AUC = 0.95), and patches from the model were on average <1.5 km2. Our results provide initial insights into the key habitat factors that drive distribution of elephants in the Sebungwe landscape. Future conservation of the elephant could benefit from our study through systematic planning of settlements, which might help minimise human interaction with wildlife.

An Analysis of the Factors Contributing to Elephant Population Fluctuations in SWRA using Ranger-based Knowledge and Perceptions

“…The only prevailing model of interaction between elephants and humans (Parker and Graham 1989) proposes that elephant distribution is the inverse of human distribution and that elephant abundance is dependent upon human abundance, based on relative densities at a given scale. This was supported by Mpakairi et al, (2019), who observed that human settlement drives the potential distribution of elephants in the Sebungwe Region (test AUC = 0.95), and patches from the model were on average <1.5 km 2 . This is supported by ranger based knowledge and perception who outlined that recent settlements and encroachment by local communities into the buffer zone could have contributed to elephant decline in SWRA.…”

“…Habitat loss through the opening of agricultural lands caused by settlement through the promulgation of statutory instrument 47 of 2014 and illegal hunting in SWRA may disrupt and destroy elephant societies (Mpakairi et al, 2019). In turn, these disruptions can limit the adaptive value of animal social relationships or alter the structure of genetic variation in animal populations and thus resulting in elephant migration and or mortalities which may negatively affect its population (Foley, 2002).…”

“…Factors that affect elephant distribution at fine-scale are well known. Primary drivers are associated with food and water availability (Chamaillé and Fritz, 2007), with the presence of humans as an additional factor (Mpakairi et al, 2019). Understanding the key factors that influence the potential dynamics of elephants in changing landscapes of Sengwa Wildlife Research Area (SWRA) has been at the centre of enquiry in wildlife conservation for many decades because of their importance to the ecosystem functioning and impact of human activities on its habitat (Mpakairi et al, 2019).…”

“…Primary drivers are associated with food and water availability (Chamaillé and Fritz, 2007), with the presence of humans as an additional factor (Mpakairi et al, 2019). Understanding the key factors that influence the potential dynamics of elephants in changing landscapes of Sengwa Wildlife Research Area (SWRA) has been at the centre of enquiry in wildlife conservation for many decades because of their importance to the ecosystem functioning and impact of human activities on its habitat (Mpakairi et al, 2019). Understanding the dynamics is particularly important for African elephants (Loxodonta africana) whose population indicated a significant decline by approximately 76% over the year from 2002 to 2014 (Dunham et al,2015).…”

“…In 2014, part of the SWRA was degazzetted following the promulgation of Statutory Instrument 47 of 2014 resulting in approximately 50km 2 of the area parcelled out for human settlement. Intense human settlement and clearance of natural vegetation for agriculture and wanton harvesting of wildlife resources on the periphery of the protected areas were experienced (Dunham et al, 2015;Chinoitezvi, 2017) This resulted in the reduction of wildlife habitats, thus affecting the survival of wildlife species such as elephants (Mpakairi et al, 2019).…”