Human mobility patterns predict divergent epidemic dynamics among cities

Dalziel, Benjamin D.; Pourbohloul, Babak; Ellner, Stephen P.

doi:10.1098/rspb.2013.0763

Cited by 100 publications

(103 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…This result could be further investigated in the future with explicit spatiotemporal information on human movement within the city based on mobile phone data and census data, because these methods continue to develop and have already contributed to a better spatial understanding of transmission in other infectious diseases (36)(37)(38)(39)(40). Further research of relevance to early warnings would also benefit from better data on flooding with higher spatiotemporal resolution, more congruent with the spatial scale of the city and the temporal scale of the seasonal transmission dynamics.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Differential and enhanced response to climate forcing in diarrheal disease due to rotavirus across a megacity of the developing world

Martinez

King

Yunus

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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The role of climate forcing in the population dynamics of infectious diseases has typically been revealed via retrospective analyses of incidence records aggregated across space and, in particular, over whole cities. Here, we focus on the transmission dynamics of rotavirus, the main diarrheal disease in infants and young children, within the megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh. We identify two zones, the densely urbanized core and the more rural periphery, that respond differentially to flooding. Moreover, disease seasonality differs substantially between these regions, spanning variation comparable to the variation from tropical to temperate regions. By combining process-based models with an extensive disease surveillance record, we show that the response to climate forcing is mainly seasonal in the core, where a more endemic transmission resulting from an asymptomatic reservoir facilitates the response to the monsoons. The force of infection in this monsoon peak can be an order of magnitude larger than the force of infection in the more epidemic periphery, which exhibits little or no postmonsoon outbreak in a pattern typical of nearby rural areas. A typically smaller peak during the monsoon season nevertheless shows sensitivity to interannual variability in flooding. High human density in the core is one explanation for enhanced transmission during troughs and an associated seasonal monsoon response in this diarrheal disease, which unlike cholera, has not been widely viewed as climate-sensitive. Spatial demographic, socioeconomic, and environmental heterogeneity can create reservoirs of infection and enhance the sensitivity of disease systems to climate forcing, especially in the populated cities of the developing world.M any infectious diseases, especially those infectious diseases that are water-borne and vector-borne, have been shown to exhibit significant interannual variability in the size of seasonal outbreaks (e.g., 1-6). Identification of climate factors shaping interannual and seasonal variability is prerequisite to an understanding of the basic transmission biology of these environmentally driven diseases, and of their response to climate change. The impact of climate factors on the population dynamics of infectious diseases has typically been addressed at large spatial scales by aggregating surveillance data over whole countries, regions, and cities (e.g., 3, 4, 6-8). Global climate drivers, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), are expected to operate over large spatial scales, synchronizing fluctuations of disease incidence across space [i.e., the Moran effect in population dynamics (9, 10)]. A recent study has shown, however, that the spatiotemporal dynamics of cholera in Dhaka, Bangladesh, are not homogeneous at intraurban scales (11). Two regions or clusters were identified, corresponding, respectively, to the highly populated core and the more rural periphery. The urban core was shown to be more climatesensitive, acting to propagate climate perturbations in cholera infection risk to the r...

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Differential and enhanced response to climate forcing in diarrheal disease due to rotavirus across a megacity of the developing world

Martinez

King

Yunus

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…These results suggest that infectious diseases spread relatively faster within denser agglomeration of people, possibly a result of the non-linear contact patterns between individuals (people make a higher number of per capita contacts in larger cities 26 ) and the human mobility patterns. 37 Similarly, the number of violent crimes, rapes, domestic violence, and household problems increases super-linearly with population. On the other hand, the number of deaths by suicides, heart attacks, or cases of diabetes is either sub-linear or close to linear depending on the country studied.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Non-linear Health Consequences of Living in Larger Cities

2015

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Urbanization promotes economy, mobility, access, and availability of resources, but on the other hand, generates higher levels of pollution, violence, crime, and mental distress. The health consequences of the agglomeration of people living close together are not fully understood. Particularly, it remains unclear how variations in the population size across cities impact the health of the population. We analyze the deviations from linearity of the scaling of several health-related quantities, such as the incidence and mortality of diseases, external causes of death, wellbeing, and health care availability, in respect to the population size of cities in Brazil, Sweden, and the USA. We find that deaths by non-communicable diseases tend to be relatively less common in larger cities, whereas the per capita incidence of infectious diseases is relatively larger for increasing population size. Healthier lifestyle and availability of medical support are disproportionally higher in larger cities. The results are connected with the optimization of human and physical resources and with the non-linear effects of social networks in larger populations. An urban advantage in terms of health is not evident, and using rates as indicators to compare cities with different population sizes may be insufficient.

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“…Nevertheless, statistical results of human mobility have been discovered based on large-population mobility data [37,38,39,40,41]. And these results have extensive applicability in urban plan-700 ning, epidemiology, and mobile computing [42,43,44,45,46,47,48]. Recently, can be made only when there is a call [42].…”

Section: Mobility Patternmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mobile social networks: Design requirements, architecture, and state-of-the-art technology

Mao

Jiang

Min

et al. 2017

Computer Communications

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Mobile social networks are new infrastructures for people to share content, communicate and interact anywhere, anytime. It brings together social computing and mobile networking techniques, and thus yields a plethora of research problems in community detection, information dissemination, privacy preservation and so forth. In this paper, we summarize the characteristics of MSNs, and outline several requirements that should be taken into consideration during the design of MSNs. A functional reference architecture of MSNs is designed, and its building blocks are described. We classify the literatures falling under MSNs according to the building blocks of the architecture, and give a detailed survey for each. At last, a conclusion on the future development of MSNs is presented.

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Human mobility patterns predict divergent epidemic dynamics among cities

Cited by 100 publications

References 39 publications

Differential and enhanced response to climate forcing in diarrheal disease due to rotavirus across a megacity of the developing world

Differential and enhanced response to climate forcing in diarrheal disease due to rotavirus across a megacity of the developing world

The Non-linear Health Consequences of Living in Larger Cities

Mobile social networks: Design requirements, architecture, and state-of-the-art technology

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