Human insecurity and child deaths in conflict: evidence for improved response in Yemen

Ogbu, Thomas Jideofor; Rodriguez-Llanes, José Manuel; Almeida, Maria Moitinho de; Speybroeck, Niko; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

doi:10.1093/ije/dyac038

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…In Aden, satellite imagery of cemeteries and civil registration data suggested a very similar peak in mortality as in this study during May-July 2020 [13]. Ogbu et al analysed 56 surveys done by humanitarian actors during 2015-2019 and classified Yemen's governorates into highand low-child mortality groups [29]; these surveys have been criticised for under-estimation [5].…”

Section: Main Findingssupporting

confidence: 63%

Adult mortality before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in nine communities of Yemen: a key informant study

Alhaffar

Basaleem

Othman

et al. 2022

Preprint

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IntroductionWidespread armed conflict has affected Yemen since 2014. To date, the mortality toll of seven years of crisis, and any excess due to the COVID-19 pandemic, are not well quantified. We attempted to estimate population mortality during the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods in nine purposively selected urban and rural communities of southern and central Yemen (Aden and Ta’iz governorates), totalling > 100,000 people.MethodsWithin each study site, we collected lists of decedents between January 2014-March 2021 by interviewing different categories of key community informants, including community leaders, imams, healthcare workers, senior citizens and others. After linking records across lists based on key variables, we applied two-, three- or four-list capture-recapture analysis to estimate total death tolls. We also computed death rates by combining these estimates with population denominators, themselves subject to estimation.ResultsAfter interviewing 138 disproportionately (74.6%) male informants, we identified 2445 unique decedents. While informants recalled deaths throughout the study period, reported deaths among children were sparse: we thus restricted analysis to persons aged ≥15 years old. We noted a peak in reported deaths during May-July 2020, plausibly coinciding with the first COVID-19 wave. Death rate estimates featured uninformatively large confidence intervals, but appeared elevated compared to the non-crisis baseline, particularly in two sites where a large proportion of deaths were attributed to war injuries. There was no clear-cut evidence of excess mortality during the pandemic period.ConclusionsWe found some evidence of a peak in mortality during the early phase of the pandemic, but death rate estimates were otherwise too imprecise to enable strong inference on trends. Estimates suggested substantial mortality elevations from baseline during the crisis period, but are subject to serious potential biases. The study highlighted challenges of data collection in this insecure, politically contested environment.

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Section: Main Findingssupporting

confidence: 63%

Adult mortality before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in nine communities of Yemen: a key informant study

Alhaffar

Basaleem

Othman

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In Aden, satellite imagery of cemeteries and civil registration data suggested a very similar peak in mortality as in this study during May–July 2020 [ 13 ]. Ogbu et al analysed 56 surveys done by humanitarian actors during 2015–2019 and classified Yemen’s governorates into high- and low-child mortality groups [ 29 ]; these surveys have been criticised for under-estimation [ 5 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adult mortality before and during the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in nine communities of Yemen: a key informant study

et al. 2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Introduction Widespread armed conflict has affected Yemen since 2014. To date, the mortality toll of seven years of crisis, and any excess due to the COVID-19 pandemic, are not well quantified. We attempted to estimate population mortality during the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods in nine purposively selected urban and rural communities of southern and central Yemen (Aden and Ta’iz governorates), totalling > 100,000 people. Methods Within each study site, we collected lists of decedents between January 2014–March 2021 by interviewing different categories of key community informants, including community leaders, imams, healthcare workers, senior citizens and others. After linking records across lists based on key variables, we applied two-, three- or four-list capture-recapture analysis to estimate total death tolls. We also computed death rates by combining these estimates with population denominators, themselves subject to estimation. Results After interviewing 138 disproportionately (74.6%) male informants, we identified 2445 unique decedents. While informants recalled deaths throughout the study period, reported deaths among children were sparse: we thus restricted analysis to persons aged ≥ 15 years old. We noted a peak in reported deaths during May–July 2020, plausibly coinciding with the first COVID-19 wave. Death rate estimates featured uninformatively large confidence intervals, but appeared elevated compared to the non-crisis baseline, particularly in two sites where a large proportion of deaths were attributed to war injuries. There was no clear-cut evidence of excess mortality during the pandemic period. Conclusions We found some evidence of a peak in mortality during the early phase of the pandemic, but death rate estimates were otherwise too imprecise to enable strong inference on trends. Estimates suggested substantial mortality elevations from baseline during the crisis period, but are subject to serious potential biases. The study highlighted challenges of data collection in this insecure, politically contested environment.

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Association between air raids and reported incidence of cholera in Yemen, 2016–19: an ecological modelling study

Tarnas,

Al-Dheeb,

Zaman

et al. 2023

The Lancet Global Health

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Human insecurity and child deaths in conflict: evidence for improved response in Yemen

Cited by 4 publications

References 30 publications

Adult mortality before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in nine communities of Yemen: a key informant study

Adult mortality before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in nine communities of Yemen: a key informant study

Adult mortality before and during the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in nine communities of Yemen: a key informant study

Association between air raids and reported incidence of cholera in Yemen, 2016–19: an ecological modelling study

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