Human-induced warming accelerates local evapotranspiration and precipitation recycling over the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract

The Tibetan Plateau faces changing precipitation and environmental conditions affecting alpine ecosystems and downstream freshwater sustainability. While aerosol influence has been highlighted, how human-induced greenhouse warming impacts the plateau’s moisture recycling remains unclear. Here we show that the Tibetan Plateau’s recent precipitation changes result from enhanced precipitation recycling and moisture convergence that offset the decline in monsoon- and westerly-associated moisture transport based on 40-year Lagrangian simulations and water budget analyses. Local evapotranspiration is observed to increase faster in percentage than precipitation, a trend expected to continue in future warming scenarios according to climate projections. Greenhouse gas emission causes widespread wetting while weakening the southerly monsoons across the Himalayas, heightening the sensitivity of precipitation to evapotranspiration and thereby local land surface changes. This trend exacerbates vulnerability in the water cycle of high mountain Asia, calling for proactive management to address potential risks and ensure future water and food security in Asia.