Human Factors Explain the Increased Losses from Weather and Climate Extremes^*

Abstract

Societal impacts from weather and climate extremes, and trends in those impacts, are a function of both climate and society. United States losses resulting from weather extremes have grown steadily with time. Insured property losses have trebled since 1960, but deaths from extremes have not grown except for those due to floods and heat waves. Data on losses are difficult to find and must be carefully adjusted before meaningful assessments can be made. Adjustments to historical loss data assembled since the late 1940s shows that most of the upward trends found in financial losses are due to societal shifts leading to ever-growing vulnerability to weather and climate extremes. Geographical locations of the large loss trends establish that population growth and demographic shifts are the major factors behind the increasing losses from weather-climate extremes. Most weather and climate extremes in the United States do not exhibit steady, multidecadal increases found in their loss values. Without major changes in societal responses to weather and climate extremes, it is reasonable to predict ever-increasing losses even without any detrimental climate changes. Recognition of these trends in societal vulnerability to weather-climate extremes suggests that the present focus on mitigating the greenhouse effect should be complemented by a greater emphasis on adaptation. Identifying and understanding this societal vulnerability has great importance for understanding the nation's economy, in guiding governmental policies, and for planning for future mitigative activities including ways for society to adapt to possible effects of a changing climate.

Trends in temperature and precipitation extremes over Circum-Bohai-Sea region, China

“…In the past few years, extreme climate events have drawn more and more attention in the world due to their serious and adverse impacts on society and ecosystems (Karl and Easterling, 1999;Changnon et al, 2000;Easterling et al, 2000;Boroneant et al, 2006). Great efforts have been made to detect the variability and trends of climate extremes (IPCC, 2007).…”

Veinte años de protección de cauces en el litoral de la Región de Murcia (1994-2014). Evaluación de la eficiencia de las medidas de Ordenación del Territorio

“…Se trata de un problema constante que el aumento de la frecuencia en las inundaciones revela y que, una vez se ha aclarado por el momento que la responsabilidad no es de un mayor número de episodios extremos asociados al cambio climático (Easterling et al, 2000;Changnon et al 2000;Bouwer et al 2007, Barredo, 2009IPCC 2012), parece más lógico pensar que cada vez que se produce una inundación con efectos dañinos la responsabilidad haya que buscarla precisamente en la negligencia por parte de las administraciones regionales y locales al haber permitido este tipo usos en zonas de inundación frecuente. En consecuencia, cabe preguntarse sobre la verdadera efectividad de medidas como las que incluyen las DPOTL.…”

Changes in extreme wet events in Southwestern China in 1960–2011

“…Numerous studies demonstrate that climate extremes could result in considerable economic losses (Changnon et al, 2000;Easterling et al, 2000;Houghton et al, 2001). For instance, the National Climate Center (1998) reported an economic loss of approximately $36 billion and more than 3000 deaths owing to the severe floods that occurred in the Yangtze River and NenjiangeSonghuajiang valley in China in summer 1998.…”