Human Error Probability Assessment for LNG Bunkering Based on Fuzzy Bayesian Network-CREAM Model

Abstract

Liquified natural gas (LNG) as a marine fuel has gained momentum as the maritime industry moves towards a sustainable future. Since unwanted LNG release may lead to severe consequences, performing quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for LNG bunkering operations has become mandatory according to some regulations. Human error is a main contributor to the risks, and the human error probabilities (HEPs) are essential for inclusion in a QRA. However, HEPs data are unavailable in the LNG bunkering industry so far. Therefore, this study attempts to infer HEPs through on-site safety philosophical factors (SPFs). The cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) was adopted as a basic model and modified to make it suitable for HEP assessment in LNG bunkering. Nine common performance condition (CPC) indicators were identified based on the fuzzy ranking of 23 SPF indicators (SPFIs). A Bayesian network (BN) was built to simulate the occurrence probabilities of different contextual control modes (COCOMs), and a conditional probability table (CPT) for the COCOM node with 19,683 possible combinations in the BN was developed according to the CREAM’s COCOM matrix. The prior probabilities of CPCs were evaluated using the fuzzy set theory (FST) based on data acquired from an online questionnaire survey. The results showed that the prior HEP for LNG bunkering is 0.009841. This value can be updated based on the re-evaluation of on-site SPFIs for a specific LNG bunkering project to capture the dynamics of HEP. The main innovation of this work is realizing the efficient quantification of HEP for LNG bunkering operations by using the proposed fuzzy BN-CREAM model.

Risk assessment of LNG bunkering vessel operation based on formal safety assessment method

“…However, some classification societies and maritime units have certain data records of accidents of LNG carriers. 6,[36][37][38] There are numerous similarities between LNG carriers and LNG bunkering vessels, which can be used for reference. According to the types of accidents such as grounding accidents, severe weather accidents, and fire accidents, the accidents are summarized, and Table 3 is obtained.…”

“…Due to the short development time and limited application time of LNG bunkering vessels, accidents of LNG bunkering vessels are rarely recorded. However, some classification societies and maritime units have certain data records of accidents of LNG carriers 6,36–38 . There are numerous similarities between LNG carriers and LNG bunkering vessels, which can be used for reference.…”

“…LNG bunkering, an essential process for LNG‐powered ships, has become a more and more prominent problem. Although it is still in the primary stage, it has led to the development of LNG bunkering infrastructure in the world 6,7 . At present, the widely accepted LNG bunkering methods are the following three: truck to ship (TTS), ship to ship (STS), and pipeline to ship (PTS) 4,8 .…”

“…Although it is still in the primary stage, it has led to the development of LNG bunkering infrastructure in the world. 6,7 At present, the widely accepted LNG bunkering methods are the following three: truck to ship (TTS), ship to ship (STS), and pipeline to ship (PTS). 4,8 TTS has been the most common method for small LNG-powered ships owing to its high accessibility and operational convenience.…”

Evaluating uncertainties to deliver enhanced service performance in education PPPs: a hierarchical reliability framework

“…Similarly, the nonhomogeneous Poisson process, Gaussian process and Markovmodulated Poisson are commonly used to calculate the software reliability of the probability of failure-free software operation for a given period in a given complex environment (Zhu and Pham, 2022). Human reliability is regarded as the probability that an individual correctly performs an activity, or no extraneous activities that undermine the system, which could be evaluated through cognitive reliability and error analysis method, a technique for human event analysis and standardized plane analysis risk (Fan et al, 2022). For structural reliability, such as wind turbine towers and bridges, first order reliability methods (FORM) and second-order fourth-moment are used (Dudzik and Potrzeszcz-Sut, 2021;Zhao and Lu, 2021).…”