Human Development Index Is Associated with COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate in Brazil: An Ecological Study

Abstract

The Human Development Index measures a region’s development and is a step for development debate beyond the traditional, economic perspective. It can also determine the success of a country’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, mainly affecting the case fatality rate among severe cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection. We aimed to associate the Human Development Index with the case fatality rate due to COVID-19 in each Brazilian state and the Federal District, taking into account comorbidities and the need for invasive mechanical ventilation. We also evaluated the influence of the GINI index, number of intensive care unit beds, and occupied households in subnormal clusters on the case fatality rate. We performed an ecological study including two populations: COVID-19 individuals that did not require the mechanical ventilation protocol; and COVID-19 individuals under invasive mechanical ventilation. We performed a Pearson correlation test and a univariate linear regression analysis on the relationship between Human Development Index, Human Development Index—Education Level, Human Development Index—Life Expectancy, and Human Development Index—Gross National Income per capita and COVID-19 deaths. The same analyses were performed using the other markers. We grouped the patients with COVID-19 according to comorbidities and the need for invasive mechanical ventilation. Alpha = 0.05. We included 848,501 COVID-19 individuals, out of which 153,710 needed invasive mechanical ventilation and 314,164 died, and 280,533 COVID-19 individuals without comorbidity, out of which 33,312 needed invasive mechanical ventilation and 73,723 died. We observed a low negative Pearson correlation between the Human Development Index and death and a moderate negative Pearson correlation between the Human Development Index and deaths of individuals on invasive mechanical ventilation, with or without comorbidity. The univariate linear analysis showed the case fatality rate depends on at least 20–40% of the Human Development Index. In Brazil, regions with a low Human Development Index demonstrated a higher case fatality rate due to COVID-19, mainly in individuals who needed invasive mechanical ventilation, than regions with a higher Human Development Index. Although other indexes studied, such as intensive care unit beds and GINI, were also associated with the COVID-19 case fatality rate, they were not as relevant as the Human Development Index. Brazil is a vast territory comprising cultural, social, and economic diversity, which mirrors the diversity of the Human Development Index. Brazil is a model nation for the study of the Human Development Index’s influence on aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, such as its impact on the case fatality rate.

Impact of Risk Factors on COVID‐19 Outcomes in Unvaccinated People With Rheumatic Diseases: A Comparative Analysis of Pandemic Epochs Using the COVID‐19 Global Rheumatology Alliance Registry

“…between a lower regional HDI and case fatality from COVID-19 in Brazil, and another study reported a significant association with low HDI and the number of COVID-19 infections among Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa countries. 18,19 An ecological study using countrywide statistics found that the HDI correlated with both COVID-19 cases and deaths. 20 Previous studies from the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance also identify race, ethnicity, and societal pandemic policies and resources as important predictors of outcomes.…”

“…Beyond clinical characteristics and immunosuppressive characteristics, our findings indicate that the social determinants of health captured in the HDI significantly contributed to more severe outcomes across pandemic epochs. Although limited global data using the HDI are available, one study demonstrated a strong relationship between a lower regional HDI and case fatality from COVID‐19 in Brazil, and another study reported a significant association with low HDI and the number of COVID‐19 infections among Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa countries 18,19 . An ecological study using countrywide statistics found that the HDI correlated with both COVID‐19 cases and deaths 20 .…”

The relationship between maternal death due to COVID-19 and the human development index in East Java, Indonesia

“…3,10 This may have happened because many aspects were hampered during the COVID-19 pandemic, so this needs to be a particular concern. 11 We need to understand that the increase in the HDI rate should not go hand in hand with the increase in maternal mortality because the maternal mortality rate should decrease every year, not increase. The HDI dimension is closely related to life expectancy and the number of health workers.…”

“…8,9 The high number of COVID-19 cases is directly proportional to the Human Development Index (HDI) increase. 10,11 HDI is one of the calculations carried out by the Indonesian Central Statistics Agency (BPS), which explains how the population can access the results of development in obtaining income, health, and education. HDI is formed by three primary dimensions, namely long and healthy life, knowledge and a decent standard of living.…”

Excess Mortality During 2020 in Spain: The Most Affected Population, Age, and Educational Group by the COVID-19 Pandemic

“…[25][26][27][28] The analyses carried out at the regional or municipal levels offer heterogeneous results, especially in low HDI countries. [29][30][31][32][33] In any case, these are ecological studies that have not considered confounding factors, such as the socio-economic characteristics of the residents. Therefore, the observed findings cannot be inferred at the individual level.…”