Human-Altered Landscapes and Climate to Predict Human Infectious Disease Hotspots

Abstract

Background: Zoonotic diseases account for more than 70% of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs). Due to their increasing incidence and impact on global health and the economy, the emergence of zoonoses is a major public health challenge. Here, we use a biogeographic approach to predict future hotspots and determine the factors influencing disease emergence. We have focused on the following three viral disease groups of concern: Filoviridae, Coronaviridae, and Henipaviruses. Methods: We modelled presence–absence data in spatially explicit binomial and zero-inflation binomial logistic regressions with and without autoregression. Presence data were extracted from published studies for the three EID groups. Various environmental and demographical rasters were used to explain the distribution of the EIDs. True Skill Statistic and deviance parameters were used to compare the accuracy of the different models. Results: For each group of viruses, we were able to identify and map areas at high risk of disease emergence based on the spatial distribution of the disease reservoirs and hosts of the three viral groups. Common influencing factors of disease emergence were climatic covariates (minimum temperature and rainfall) and human-induced land modifications. Conclusions: Using topographical, climatic, and previous disease outbreak reports, we can identify and predict future high-risk areas for disease emergence and their specific underlying human and environmental drivers. We suggest that such a predictive approach to EIDs should be carefully considered in the development of active surveillance systems for pathogen emergence and epidemics at local and global scales.

Unveiling Disease X: Strategies for Tackling the New Frontier of Infectious Diseases

“…To effectively combat the emergence and spread of disease X and other zoonotic diseases, addressing the underlying drivers that contribute to emergence is crucial [108,109]. Deforestation, wildlife trade, and climate change are key environmental factors that facilitate pathogen spillover from animals-to-humans [110,111].…”

Mapping Industrial Influences on Earth's Ecology

“…Ever since the first global land cover map was generated through direct observations from remote sensing, such products have increasingly informed global environmental dialogues (34,99). As mapping techniques evolved to incorporate human use of land, populations, and industrial influences across Earth (Figure 3), a myriad of interdisciplinary approaches have allowed scientists to show how human activities can shape biodiversity in a range of ways, including species population declines, invasions, and behavioral changes (72,100,101), facilitating infectious disease spread (102) and compromising crucial ecosystem services, such as water quality and carbon storage and sequestration (83,103). These scientific efforts have been included throughout important environment assessments such as the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Global Assessments (104), the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports (105), and the Global Biodiversity Outlook (106).…”

Geospatial Health (GeoHealth): Current Trends, Methods, and Applications

“…Jagadesh et al employed a biogeographic approach to determine the factors and predict future hotspots for three virus families: the Filoviridae , Coronaviridae , and Henipavirus genera. The study indicated that the common factors influencing disease emergence were climatic variables and human-induced land modifications [ 5 ]. Another study assessed the risk of dengue cases in Indonesia in relation to multi-factorial climate change.…”