Human Activity Affects Forest Fires: The Impact of Anthropogenic Factors on the Density of Forest Fires in Poland

Abstract

Forest fires, due to climate change, are a growing threat to human life, health, and property, especially in temperate climates. Unfortunately, the impact of individual factors on forest fires varies, depending on the geographical region and its natural and socio-economic conditions. The latter are rarely introduced into fire warning systems, which significantly reduces their effectiveness. Therefore, the main goal of this study was to quantify the impact of a wide range of anthropogenic factors on forest fires, using Poland as a representative example of a Central European country. Data were analyzed in relation to districts for the period 2007–2017, using correlation analysis and regression modeling applying global and local/mixed regression methods. It was found that almost all of the 28 variables taken for analysis significantly determined the density of forest fires, but the greatest role was played by the length of the border between forests and built-up areas, and road density. In addition, the impact of most of the analyzed variables on forest fires varied over the study area, so implementing non-stationarity in geographically weighted regression models significantly improved the goodness-of-fit compared to global models.

Contribution of anthropogenic, vegetation, and topographic features to forest fire occurrence in Poland

“…Anthropogenic factors that cause increases in fire probability are inextricably linked to human activities in forested areas (Kolanek et al 2021). These factors include agricultural, recreational, and manufacturing activities and result in constant pressure on the forest ecosystem (Kolanek et al 2021). Our study has shown that population density, distance from buildings, railways and roads are particularly important anthropogenic factors that determine the probability of fire.…”

“…Anthropogenic factors that cause increases in fire probability are inextricably linked to human activities in forested areas (Kolanek et al 2021). These factors include agricultural, recreational, and manufacturing activities and result in constant pressure on the forest ecosystem (Kolanek et al 2021).…”

“…In our studies, fire probability decreases with increasing mean elevation above sea level and with increasing slope. This may be related to both forest availability and population distribution (Adámek et al 2018, Kolanek et al 2021. It seems reasonable to state that the lower the elevation, slope, and differentiation of topography, the greater the human activities that may primarily increase the probability of fire.…”

“…Due to the increase in the number and severity of fires that has been observed for many years (Mansoor et al 2022), the damage caused by large fires in particular is increasingly recognized as a factor affecting forest ecosystems (Adámek et al 2018). Forest fires negatively affect soil properties and microclimate and are one of the most important forest disturbances (Kolanek et al 2021). In Central Europe, large fires are rare, partly due to forest characteristics and the long tradition of fire suppression (Adámek et al 2018).…”

“…As technical capabilities have developed, spatial dependencies between fires and factors such as distance from roads and railroads, valuable natural features, recreation areas, and buildings have also been studied (Curt et al 2016, Milanović et al 2021. In recent years, socioeconomic variables such as unemployment rate and population density have also been considered in modeling fire probability (Kolanek et al 2021). To date, numerous statistical models have been used to model fire occurrence.…”