How will the semi-natural vegetation of the UK have changed by 2030 given likely changes in nitrogen deposition?

Abstract

Nitrogen deposition is known to have major impacts on contemporary ecosystems but few studies have addressed how these impacts will develop over coming decades. We consider likely changes to British semi-natural vegetation up to the year 2030 both qualitatively, based on knowledge of species responses from experimental and gradient studies, and quantitatively, based on modelling of species relationships in national monitoring data. We used historical N deposition trends and national predictions of changing deposition to calculate cumulative deposition from 1900 to 2030. Data from the Countryside Survey (1978, 1990 and 1998) was used to parameterise models relating cumulative N deposition to Ellenberg N which were then applied to expected future deposition trends. Changes to habitat suitability for key species of grassland, heathland and bog, and broadleaved woodland to 2030 were predicted using the MultiMOVE model. In UK woodlands by 2030 there is likely to be reduced occurrence of lichens, increased grass cover and a shift towards more nitrophilic vascular plant species. In grasslands we expect changing species composition with reduced occurrence of terricolous lichens and, at least in acid grasslands, reduced species richness. In heaths and bogs we project overall reductions in species richness with decreased occurrence of terricolous lichens and some bryophytes, reduced cover of dwarf shrubs and small increases in grasses. Our study clearly suggests that changes in vegetation due to nitrogen deposition are likely to continue through coming decades.

An Assessment of the Performance of the PLUS+ Tool in Supporting the Evaluation of Water Framework Directive Compliance in Scottish Standing Waters

“…The largest observed change in land use between 1988 and 2015 was from heather moor to coarse grassland, covering an area of 1.4 M ha. It is well understood that nutrient enrichment of upland heaths from atmospheric deposition of nitrogen has increased the dominance of grasslands in the UK [33]; however, this figure is high and may represent some uncertainty in the IACS classification used to construct the land cover map for 2015 compared to that for 1988. Heather moorland and coarse grassland have the same P export coefficient and so this change does not affect calculated TP concentrations.…”

Drivers of vascular plant species area relationships in British broadleaved woodlands and their effects on the species area curve

“…The size of this buffer relates to the amount of the woodland that is exposed to natural habitats. The greater that value, the more protected the woodland is from agrochemicals and airborne environmental pollutants; particularly around the edges (Draaijers, et al, 1988), which are linked to reduced species richness (Bobbink et al, 1998;Pallet et al, 2016, Simkin et al, 2016Stevens et al, 2016). Previous research has suggested that buffer regions should be included around woodlands for various reasons, including protection from anthropogenic influences (McWilliam et al, 2010) and vehicle pollution (Bignal et al, 2008).…”

Empleo de criptógamas como herramienta ecológica de biomonitorización de nitrógeno en la península ibérica

“…En ocasiones, se han encontrado resultados contradictorios entre el medio natural y experimental, que se sugiere pueden deberse a las concentraciones muy superiores suministradas en este último caso (Armitage et al 2012). Además de los estudios empíricos, también se usan modelos de deposición (Stevens et al 2016) o incluso se han establecido niveles de referencia, como es el caso de los valores de Ellenberg para el N (Delgado y Ederra 2013) o aquellos utilizados característicamente en ciertos grupos de líquenes (Jovan et al 2012).…”