How will future climate depending agronomic management impact the yield risk of wheat cropping systems? A regional case study of Eastern Denmark

Abstract

One of the major challenges in agriculture is how climate change influences crop production, for different environmental (soil type, topography, groundwater depth, etc.) and agronomic management conditions. Through systems modelling, this study aims to quantify the impact of future climate on yield risk of winter wheat for two common soil types of Eastern Denmark. The agro-ecosystem model DAISY was used to simulate arable, conventional cropping systems (CSs) and the study focused on the three main management factors: cropping sequence, usage of catch crops and cereal straw management. For the case region of Eastern Denmark, the future yield risk of wheat does not necessarily increase under climate change mainly due to lower water stress in the projections; rather, it depends on appropriate management and each CS design. Major management factors affecting the yield risk of wheat were N supply and the amount of organic material added during rotations. If a CS is characterized by straw removal and no catch crop within the rotation, an increased wheat yield risk must be expected in the future. In contrast, more favourable CSs, including catch crops and straw incorporation, maintain their capacity and result in a decreasing yield risk over time. Higher soil organic matter content, higher net nitrogen mineralization rate and higher soil organic nitrogen content were the main underlying causes for these positive effects. Furthermore, the simulation results showed better N recycling and reduced nitrate leaching for the more favourable CSs, which provide benefits for environment-friendly and sustainable crop production.

Quantification of the Impact of Temperature, CO2, and Rainfall Changes on Swedish Annual Crops Production Using the APSIM Model

“…All crops show an increase of yield concomitant with temperatures and CO 2 concentrations increases, although the optimal range of temperatures for increases varies from one crop and locations combination to another. This has been reported in previous studies, as e.g., in Rötter et al (2011), Rötter et al (2013, Ozturk et al (2018), Macholdt et al (2021), Palosuo et al (2021). All these studies emphasize that crops in the Nordic countries can benefit from increased temperatures until a certain threshold, depending on the crop, location and model considered.…”

“…Their results suggest that the likeliness of reaching an appropriate fodder quality would increase for most regions in Sweden, with some exceptions due to the effects of water stress, and that yield should not significantly increase under future climate conditions. More recently, Macholdt et al (2021) used the DAISY crop model to simulate the impact of future climate on yield risk of winter wheat in eastern Denmark. There results showed that adapted nitrogen supply and soil organic contents could mitigate the effects of climate change on the yield.…”

Effects of Fertilizers and Manures on Temporal Yield Variability of Winter Rye

“…However, temperature increases associated with climate change could contribute to losses of SOC. enhanced levels of SOC may contribute to less production risk and more stable yields [15], as demonstrated in modelling studies on wheat.…”

Identification of Plant and Soil Characteristics Affecting Stability of Winter Wheat Cultivar in Temperate Climates

“…Assessing the stability of varieties is an important issue related to both genetic and agronomic progress in a changing climate [16,17]. It allows for the identification of genotypes or cultivars adapted to specific climatic and soil conditions, as well as production requirements.…”