How will Dhaka grow spatially in future?-Modelling its urban growth with a near-future planning scenario perspective

Ahmed, Sohel; Bramley, Glen

doi:10.1016/j.ijsbe.2015.07.003

Cited by 28 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…As a freeware modeling platform for environmental modeling, DINAMICA has been applied in a variety of studies, including agricultural expansion and deforestation at different scales in the tropics [61][62][63][64][65], urban growth and dynamics [57,66], and biodiversity and ecosystem service studies [59,[67][68][69].…”

Section: Lulc Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Changes in Ecosystem Service Values over 1985–2050 in Response to Land Use and Land Cover Dynamics in Abaya-Chamo Basin, Southern Ethiopia

Woldeyohannes

Cotter

Biru

et al. 2020

Land

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This study evaluated the effect of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) dynamics on the value of ecosystem services in Abaya-Chamo basin over 1985-2050. The main objectives of the study were to estimate the value of ecosystem services of Abaya-Chamo basin using local and global ecosystem service value coefficients, assess how it changes over time, and develop tools to inform policy and public decision-making to protect lands and waters in the region. The study utilized observed (1985 and 2010) and predicted (2030 and 2050) LULC datasets and ecosystem service value coefficients obtained from publications in peer-reviewed scientific journals. The results indicated that the total ecosystem service value of Abaya-Chamo basin was 12.13 billion USD in 1985 and 12.45 billion USD in 2010. The value is predicted to increase to 12.47 billion USD by the year 2050, which is 2.84% (344.5 million USD) higher than the total value of ecosystem services of the basin in 1985. Although the total ecosystem service value of the basin showed a slight increase over the study period, it was observed that the total value of services obtained from natural ecosystems is expected to decline by 36.24% between 1985 and 2050. The losses of services obtained from natural ecosystems, such as water regulation and erosion control, are major concern as the consequence has already been reported in the basin in the form of reduced water quality and productivity of the lakes due to an increased soil erosion and sediment transport in the basin. Therefore, special attention should be given to the rehabilitation of degraded ecosystems and the protection of remaining natural vegetation and water bodies to enhance natural capital and ecosystem services in the basin. A large-scale dissemination of eco-agricultural land use practices, which provide multiple ecosystem services (such as agroforestry and heterogeneous agricultural areas) in the basin, needs to be considered in the future.

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Section: Lulc Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Changes in Ecosystem Service Values over 1985–2050 in Response to Land Use and Land Cover Dynamics in Abaya-Chamo Basin, Southern Ethiopia

Woldeyohannes

Cotter

Biru

et al. 2020

Land

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“… Source: 1 = Jenks et al (2000); 2 = Dewan and Yamaguchi (2009); 3 = Bhatta (2010); 4 = Griffiths et al (2010); 5 = Habibi & Asadi (2011); 6 = Ahmed et al (2012); 7 = Byomkesh et al (2012); 8 = Ahmed et al (2014); 9 = Ahmed and Bramley (2015); 10 = Debnath and Amin (2016); 11 = Hasan et al (2017); 12 = Morshed et al (2017); 13 = Ahmed et al (2018); 14 = Hassan and Southworth (2018); 15 = Hassan et al (2019); 16 = Roy et al (2019); 17 = Sarker (2020). …”

Section: Urban Sprawl and Sustainability: The Conceptual Linksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustainability Challenges for Sprawling Dhaka

Roy

Sowgat

Islam

et al. 2021

Environment and Urbanization ASIA

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Dhaka’s sprawled area is likely to supersede the total land area of the Dhaka city in the near future. This article combines quantitative and qualitative methods to investigate sustainability concerns that have arisen because of irregular and rapid sprawling in Dhaka. Land cover change detection reveals that since 1991, the city outskirts have seen an addition of 234 square kilometres of built-up area. Spatial metrics show the dynamic process of infill and the fragmented transformation of land covers in Dhaka, which have led to low-density, leapfrog and ribbon sprawling. The city outskirts, especially the economically advantaged regions, have been observing rapid urban densification of neighbourhoods. Field observation and interviews in 19 sprawled areas confirm that the change has been influenced by industrialization, increasing demand for housing, high cost of living in Dhaka city, growing population and lack of development control regulations. The advantage of the sprawling process is that it offers economic opportunities, contributing to poverty reduction and national economic growth. However, the abrupt and sporadic nature of this transformation puts the long term economic and environmental viability of new business activities and habitation into question. Congested housing, poor accessibility, inadequate drainage system and sanitation facilities in sprawled areas have resulted in poor liveability and created social inequality, thus impeding the way for a sustainable urban transformation of peri-urban Dhaka. This article calls for a greater acknowledgement of sustainability concerns in development control regulations and a more inclusive form of governance to deal with existing sustainability challenges for Dhaka city and its rapidly transforming peripheral region.

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“…The unplanned development and rapid changes have made local authorities and urban planners generate, compare, and convey urban plans faster and develop future policies that take into account sustainable development and the demands of future needs (Aburas, Ho, Ramli, & Asháari, 2016). Therefore, the awareness and simulation of urban growth provides effective ways to support urban planning and decisionmaking processes by predicting future changes of urban land use and identifying potential areas with the greatest growth rate that need further attention for potential policy intervention in a timely manner (Ahmed & Bramley, 2015;Kok & Verburg, 2007;Verburg, Schot, Dijst, & Veldkamp, 2004).…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

An urban growth simulation model based on integration of local weights and decision risk values

Firozjaei

Seddighi

Jelokhani‐Niaraki

2020

Transactions in GIS

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Monitoring and managing the rapid growth of cities, especially in developing countries, highlights the need for appropriate spatio‐temporal models to predict urban growth. The parameters affecting the spatio‐temporal analysis of urban growth play a key role in the prediction results. This study proposes an urban growth simulation model by integrating local subjective–objective weights and decision risk values (ORness) into a CA–Markov model. This involves the use of ordered weighting averaging as one of the multicriteria decision analysis methods to combine the weights and degree of risk for generating a variety of risk‐averse and/or risk‐taking urban growth prediction scenarios. The proposed model has been applied to predict the physical growth of Babol city, located in Mazandaran, Iran. The results indicate that the degrees of ORness = 0.3 and ORness = 0.9 yield better prediction results in the case of using the local and global weighting strategies, respectively. Furthermore, the overall accuracy of local and global weighting strategies at different degrees of risk was 87.6 and 86.8, respectively. This implies that the use of local subjective–objective weights leads to more accurate results than the global weights for simulating urban growth.

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How will Dhaka grow spatially in future?-Modelling its urban growth with a near-future planning scenario perspective

Cited by 28 publications

References 33 publications

Assessing Changes in Ecosystem Service Values over 1985–2050 in Response to Land Use and Land Cover Dynamics in Abaya-Chamo Basin, Southern Ethiopia

Assessing Changes in Ecosystem Service Values over 1985–2050 in Response to Land Use and Land Cover Dynamics in Abaya-Chamo Basin, Southern Ethiopia

Sustainability Challenges for Sprawling Dhaka

An urban growth simulation model based on integration of local weights and decision risk values

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