How Will Deforestation and Vegetation Degradation Affect Global Fire Activity?

Park, Chae Yeon; Toko, Kiyoshi; Takakura, Jun’ya; Li, F.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Ito, Akihiko; Lee, D. K.

doi:10.1029/2020ef001786

Cited by 8 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 87 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Kemter et al (2021, also discussed below) emphasized that climate change is projected to increase the frequency of compounding events such as the extreme drought, fire, and intense rain that occurred in the cascade of hazards affecting Australia in 2019-2020. Park et al (2021) examined how deforestation and vegetation degradation will affect future fire activity globally. Their modeling indicated that under Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6 and 6.0 burned area would decrease globally in the 2050s and 2090s due to socioeconomic factors such as economic and population growth reducing the use of anthropogenic fire for deforestation.…”

Section: Recent Past and Future Evolution Of Fire Patternsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Their modeling indicated that under Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6 and 6.0 burned area would decrease globally in the 2050s and 2090s due to socioeconomic factors such as economic and population growth reducing the use of anthropogenic fire for deforestation. However, Park et al (2021) also predicted that South America, Indonesia, and Australia would continue to have a high risk of anthropogenic fires due to wood harvest and pastureland expansion. Rodrigues et al (2021) examined climatic connections to fire frequency and magnitude in the western Mediterranean region between 1980 and 2015.…”

Section: Recent Past and Future Evolution Of Fire Patternsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Park et al. (2021) examined how deforestation and vegetation degradation will affect future fire activity globally. Their modeling indicated that under Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6 and 6.0 burned area would decrease globally in the 2050s and 2090s due to socioeconomic factors such as economic and population growth reducing the use of anthropogenic fire for deforestation.…”

Section: Recent Past and Future Evolution Of Fire Patternsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, Park et al. (2021) also predicted that South America, Indonesia, and Australia would continue to have a high risk of anthropogenic fires due to wood harvest and pastureland expansion. Rodrigues et al.…”

Section: Recent Past and Future Evolution Of Fire Patternsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Fire in the Earth System: Introduction to the Special Collection

et al. 2023

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Fire has always been an important component of many ecosystems, but anthropogenic global climate change is now altering fire regimes over much of Earth's land surface, spurring a more urgent need to understand the physical, biological, and chemical processes associated with fire as well as its effects on human societies. In 2020, AGU launched a Special Collection that spanned 10 journals, soliciting papers under the theme “Fire in the Earth System” to encourage state‐of‐the‐art publications in fire‐related science. The completed Special Collection comprises more than 100 papers. Here, we summarize the articles published in this collection, considering them to be grouped into seven themes: paleofire and its ties to climate; evolution of fire patterns in the recent past and the future, including the effects of ongoing climate change; physical (atmospheric) and chemical processes associated with fire; ecosystem effects, including on biogeochemical cycles; physical landscape change after fire and its associated hazards; fire effects on water quality, air quality, and human health; and new methods and technologies applied to fire research.

show abstract

Section: Recent Past and Future Evolution Of Fire Patternsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Recent Past and Future Evolution Of Fire Patternsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Recent Past and Future Evolution Of Fire Patternsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Recent Past and Future Evolution Of Fire Patternsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Fire in the Earth System: Introduction to the Special Collection

et al. 2023

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Deforestation and forest fragmentation, in turn, contribute to increased fire risk, which is further exacerbated by climatic variability frequently associated with El Niño conditions (the dry phase of ENSO) and anthropogenic climate change. These factors are impacting 'fire weather conditions'-these being the atmospheric component of wildfire risk, by increasing temperature extremes and water vapour deficit (Findell et al 2017, Abatzoglou et al 2019, Park et al 2021, Zhong et al 2021. The interplay between deforestation and fire is evident in Borneo, which experienced extensive deforestation between 1973 and 2015 (Miettinen et al 2016), with many associated vegetation fires (Gaveau et al 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Converting tropical forests to agriculture increases fire risk by fourfold

Trancoso

Syktus

Salazar

et al. 2022

Environ. Res. Lett.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Deforestation exacerbates climate change through greenhouse gas emissions, but other climatic alterations linked to the local biophysical changes remain poorly understood. Here, we assess the impact of tropical deforestation on fire weather risk – that is the climate conditions conducive to wildfires – using high-resolution convection-permitting climate simulations. We consider two land cover scenarios for the island of Borneo: land cover in 1980 (forest scenario) and land cover in 2050 (deforestation scenario) to force a convection-permitting climate model, using ERA-Interim reanalysis for the 2002-2016 period. Our findings revealed significant alterations in post-deforestation fire precursors such as increased temperature, wind speed and potential evapotranspiration and decreased humidity, cloud cover and precipitation. As a result, fire weather events that would occur once a year, are likely to occur four times a year following deforestation. Likewise, extreme conditions, such as those occurring on longer time-horizons greater than 20 years, the magnitude of extreme fire weather is likely to double following deforestation. These increases in extreme fire weather conditions demonstrate the key role of tropical forests in regulating regional climate processes, including reduced fire weather risk.

show abstract

Accounting for forest fire risks: global insights for climate change mitigation

Chu,

Grafton,

Nelson

2023

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Fire is an important risk in global forest loss and contributed 20% to 25% of the global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions between 1997 and 2016. Forest fire risks will increase with climate change in some locations, but existing estimates of the costs of using forests for climate mitigation do not yet fully account for these risks or how these risks change inter-temporally. To quantify the importance of forest fire risks, we undertook a global study of individual country fire risks, combining economic datasets and global remote sensing data from 2001 to 2020. Our estimates of forest fire risk premia better account for the risk of forest burning that would be additional to the risk-free and break-even price of credits or offsets to promote carbon sequestration and storage in forests. Our results show the following: (1) forest fire risk premia can be much larger than the historical forest area burned; (2) for some countries, forest fire risk premia have a large impact on the relative country-level break-even price of carbon credits or offsets; (3) a large spatial and inter-temporal heterogeneity of forest fires across countries between 2001 and 2020; and (4) the importance of properly incorporating forest fire risk premia into carbon credits/offset programs. As part of our analysis, and to emphasise the possible sub-national scale differences, our results highlight the heterogeneity in fire risk premia across 10 Canadian provinces.

show abstract

How Will Deforestation and Vegetation Degradation Affect Global Fire Activity?

Cited by 8 publications

References 87 publications

Fire in the Earth System: Introduction to the Special Collection

Fire in the Earth System: Introduction to the Special Collection

Converting tropical forests to agriculture increases fire risk by fourfold

Accounting for forest fire risks: global insights for climate change mitigation

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About