How well do the spring indices predict phenological activity across plant species?

Gerst, Katharine L.; Crimmins, Theresa M.; Posthumus, Erin E.; Rosemartin, Alyssa; Schwartz, Mark D.

doi:10.1007/s00484-020-01879-z

Cited by 16 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 49 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The Spring indices is based on the relationships between lilac and honeysuckle phenology (Schwartz, 1990(Schwartz, , 1997Schwartz et al, 2006Schwartz et al, , 2013 and temperature, so it represents the phenology (first leaf and flower date) of lilac bush at first. However, this Spring indices model has also be widely applied in lots of plants confirmed in numerous studies (Gerst et al, 2020;Schwartz, 1997;Schwartz et al, 2006) of these indexes are similar to that of Spring indices, and are consistent with the long-term temperature changes in spring (Chmielewski & Rötzer, 2002;Linderholm, 2006).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 54%

“…The Spring indices is based on the relationships between lilac and honeysuckle phenology (Schwartz, 1990, 1997; Schwartz et al., 2006, 2013) and temperature, so it represents the phenology (first leaf and flower date) of lilac bush at first. However, this Spring indices model has also be widely applied in lots of plants confirmed in numerous studies (Gerst et al., 2020; Schwartz, 1997; Schwartz et al., 2006). The changes of Avg‐SI identified in this study are in general consistent with satellite measured vegetation growth, temperature‐based climate indexes and limited plant phenological observations in China.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…The weakest changes appeared in the tropical regions, with only 1–2 days changes. In fact, Spring indices can track the seasonal transition of plants which are temperature sensitive (Gerst et al., 2020; Schwartz, 1997; Schwartz et al., 2006). The correlations (Figure 4b) of Avg‐SI and average temperature from February to April (which is a general period of Spring onset for the nation) present the high consistence of their change, indicating China is temperature responsive nation to a large extent.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Spatiotemporal Variations of Spring Indices in China and Their Physical Mechanisms

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The impacts of warming have been observed in a variety of ecosystems and biological processes, for example, the phenology of the vegetation (Huang et al., 2018;Parmesan & Yohe, 2003). In fact, phenology has become an important indicator of climate change and been widely used to investigate the impacts of climate on ecosystems (Menzel et al., 2006). Both the local phenological observations and satellite vegetation data suggested that the ecosystems have been significantly changed in recent years (Piao et al., 2019). Because the vegetation absorbs nutrients mainly in the spring (Lapointe, 2001), the onset of spring can greatly influence the plants growth and cultivation. It is thus important to understand the changes of spring and its dynamic mechanisms.The question of how "sensitive" a spring can be evaluated using the plants phenological periods. Previous studies on spring climate were lacking compared to the summer and winter. Additionally, these studies often focused on temperature and/or precipitation trend (Gordo & Sanz, 2010;Marra et al., 2005). However, quantifying the impacts of spring climate on plants has become an important topic in recent years.

show abstract

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 54%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Spatiotemporal Variations of Spring Indices in China and Their Physical Mechanisms

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…These limitations could be related to constraints on spring phenology and strong differences in seasonality across latitude. It is understood that plant phenology, such as first bloom, generally follows a latitudinal trend across North America (Gerst et al 2020), which is also an indicator of timing in seasonal resources that migratory birds need during the breeding season (Lehikoinen et al 2019). Purple martins are known to follow a latitudinal gradient in spring arrival timing where southern colonies arrive earlier and spend more time at breeding sites compared to northern colonies (Neufeld et al 2021) and potentially rely largely on endogenous cues tied with spring phenology.…”

Section: Natal Dispersalmentioning

confidence: 99%

Population structure, patterns of natal dispersal and demographic history in a declining aerial insectivore, the purple martin Progne subis

Greef

Brashear

Delmore

et al. 2022

Journal of Avian Biology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Genetic variation is a fundamental component of biodiversity, and studying population structure, gene flow and demographic history can help guide conservation strategies for many species. Like other aerial insectivores, the purple martin Progne subis is in decline, and yet their genetic background remains largely unknown. To address this knowledge gap, we assessed population structure in the nominate eastern subspecies (P. s. subis) with relation to natal dispersal and examined historical genetic patterns in all three subspecies (P. s. subis, P. s. arboricola, P. s. hesperia) across their North American breeding range by estimating effective population sizes over time. We used next‐generation sequencing strategies for genomic analyses, integrating whole‐genome resequencing data with continent‐wide band encounter records to examine natal dispersal. We documented population structure across P. s. subis, with the highest differentiation between the northern (Alberta) and more southern colonies and following patterns of isolation‐by‐distance. Consistent with spatial patterns of genetic differentiation, we also found greater longitudinal than latitudinal natal dispersal distances, signifying potential latitudinal constraints on gene flow. Earlier contractions in effective population sizes in the western P. s. arboricola and P. s. hesperia compared to the eastern P. s. subis subspecies suggest these subspecies originated from two different glacial refugia. Together, these findings support latitudinal distinction in P. s. subis, and elucidate the origin of subspecies differentiation, highlighting the importance of conserving populations across the range to maximize genetic diversity and adaptive potential in the purple martin.

show abstract

“…The Spring Leaf and Bloom Index models perform well at predicting leafout and flowering in lilacs. A recent evaluation comparing observations of leaf-out and flowering in cloned lilacs to Spring Index predictions of leaf-out and flowering in lilacs reported a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 11.97 days for leaf-out and 6.46 days for bloom (Gerst et al 2020). Further, 47% of reports of leaf-out in cloned and common lilacs submitted to Nature's Notebook were within one week of the predicted date of leaf-out made with the lilac model; for bloom, this figure climbed to 60% (USA National Phenology Network, unpublished data).…”

Section: Statistical Analysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Do Carefully Timed Email Messages Increase Accuracy and Precision in Citizen Scientists’ Reports of Events?

Crimmins

Posthumus

2022

Citizen Science: Theory and Practice

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Engaging and retaining participants present major challenges for citizen science programs, especially those that seek to engage participants across a large region. Periodic messages are a commonly used tactic for reminding citizen science program participants to take a desired action such as collecting observations. In this study, we evaluate the impact of such messages on the accuracy and precision of observations contributed to Nature's Notebook, a citizen science phenology observing program. To encourage participants in Nature's Notebook to log the timing of leaf-out and flowering with maximum accuracy and precision, we email observers three days prior to when the events are expected to occur based on forecast models. Unplanned interruptions to the scripts driving these email prompts allowed us to evaluate whether the messages had the intended impacts. The messages significantly improved the precision of observers' reports of leaf-out by five to eight days and the accuracy by one to two days, though these improvements were present only for participants that opened the messages. Accuracy and precision of reports of bloom were not impacted in the same positive ways. These findings demonstrate the importance of timely messages to prompt action and underscore the impact of the first messages sent in the season-both of which have utility for other citizen science programs. Because these findings emerged opportunistically, we cannot establish that the messages caused the changes in participant behavior. A more rigorous evaluation to determine the impact of messaging on volunteer observer behavior is merited.

show abstract

How well do the spring indices predict phenological activity across plant species?

Cited by 16 publications

References 49 publications

Spatiotemporal Variations of Spring Indices in China and Their Physical Mechanisms

Spatiotemporal Variations of Spring Indices in China and Their Physical Mechanisms

Population structure, patterns of natal dispersal and demographic history in a declining aerial insectivore, the purple martin Progne subis

Do Carefully Timed Email Messages Increase Accuracy and Precision in Citizen Scientists’ Reports of Events?

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About