How warm was Greenland during the last interglacial period?

Landais, A.; Masson‐Delmotte, Valérie; Capron, Émilie; Langebroek, Petra; Bakker, Pepijn; Stone, E. J.; Merz, Niklaus; Raible, Christoph C.; Fischer, Hubertus; Orsi, Anaïs; Prié, Frédéric; Vinther, Bo M.; Dahl-Jensen, Dorthe

doi:10.5194/cp-12-1933-2016

Cited by 43 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 70 publications

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“…Of course, there may not be a single uniformly applicable temperature threshold for GIS survival. GIS mass balance also depends on other factors, such as geometry, accumulation, and moisture supply, which in turn, are related to SSTs and sea ice extent (19). Thus, a number of mechanisms could explain why the degree, or even the sign, of the mass balance response to warming is time sensitive.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A low climate threshold for south Greenland Ice Sheet demise during the Late Pleistocene

Irvali

Galaasen

Ninnemann

et al. 2019

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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The Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) has been losing mass at an accelerating rate over the recent decades. Models suggest a possible temperature threshold between 0.8 and 3.2 °C, beyond which GIS decline becomes irreversible. The duration of warmth above a given threshold is also a critical determinant for GIS survival, underlining the role of ocean warming, as its inertia prolongs warmth and triggers longer-term feedbacks. The exact point at which these feedbacks are triggered remains equivocal. Late Pleistocene interglacials provide potential case examples for constraining the past response of the GIS to a range of climate states, including conditions warmer than present. However, little is known about the magnitude and duration of warming near Greenland during these periods. Using high-resolution multiproxy surface ocean climate records off southern Greenland, we show that the previous 4 interglacials over the last ∼450 ka all reached warmer than present climate conditions and exceeded the modeled temperature threshold for GIS collapse but by different magnitudes and durations. Complete deglaciation of the southern GIS in Marine Isotope Stage 11c (MIS 11c; 394.7 to 424.2 ka) occurred under climates only slightly warmer than present (∼0.5 ± 1.6 °C), placing the temperature threshold for major GIS retreat in the lower end of model estimates and within projections for this century.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A low climate threshold for south Greenland Ice Sheet demise during the Late Pleistocene

Irvali

Galaasen

Ninnemann

et al. 2019

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…This problem would be further amplified if insolation changes were explicitly taken into account in the melt model (van de Berg et al, 2011;Robinson and Goelzer, 2014). We refer to this mismatch between reconstructed temperatures and assumed minimum ice sheet extent as the "NEEM paradox" (see also Landais et al, 2016). Several attempts to solve this paradox have been made by suggesting possible biases in the interpretation of the relationship between isotope ratio and temperature, which may not be assumed temporally and spatially constant (e.g.…”

Section: Greenland Ice Sheet Evolutionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To this date, none of the Greenland ice cores shows continuous and undisturbed information back in time through the LIG and into the penultimate glacial maximum. The relatively high temperatures during the LIG as reconstructed from the folded lower parts of the NEEM ice core (NEEM community members, 2013;Landais et al, 2016) seem to be incompatible with the general view that the ice sheet lost rather little volume during the LIG (e.g. Robinson et al, 2011;Colville et al, 2011).…”

mentioning

confidence: 97%

Last Interglacial climate and sea-level evolution from a coupled ice sheet–climate model

et al. 2016

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Abstract. As the most recent warm period in Earth's history with a sea-level stand higher than present, the Last Interglacial (LIG, ∼ 130 to 115 kyr BP) is often considered a prime example to study the impact of a warmer climate on the two polar ice sheets remaining today. Here we simulate the Last Interglacial climate, ice sheet, and sea-level evolution with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM v.1.3, which includes dynamic and fully coupled components representing the atmosphere, the ocean and sea ice, the terrestrial biosphere, and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In this setup, sea-level evolution and climate-ice sheet interactions are modelled in a consistent framework.Surface mass balance change governed by changes in surface meltwater runoff is the dominant forcing for the Greenland ice sheet, which shows a peak sea-level contribution of 1.4 m at 123 kyr BP in the reference experiment. Our results indicate that ice sheet-climate feedbacks play an important role to amplify climate and sea-level changes in the Northern Hemisphere. The sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to surface temperature changes considerably increases when interactive albedo changes are considered. Southern Hemisphere polar and sub-polar ocean warming is limited throughout the Last Interglacial, and surface and sub-shelf melting exerts only a minor control on the Antarctic sea-level contribution with a peak of 4.4 m at 125 kyr BP. Retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet at the onset of the LIG is mainly forced by rising sea level and to a lesser extent by reduced ice shelf viscosity as the surface temperature increases. Global sea level shows a peak of 5.3 m at 124.5 kyr BP, which includes a minor contribution of 0.35 m from oceanic thermal expansion. Neither the individual contributions nor the total modelled sea-level stand show fast multi-millennial timescale variations as indicated by some reconstructions.

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“…In contrast, the MIS 5e peak sea level appears better constrained in the range of 6-9 m above present levels (Kopp et al, 2009). However, the accuracy of the associated polar and local temperature change during that period remains problematic (Dahl-Jensen et al, 2013;Landais et al, 2016;Otto-Bliesner et al, 2013). Also, the associated uncertainty in the mass balance formulation (Helsen et al, 2013) and the role of basal melting in Antarctica possibly implies that ice sheets are more vulnerable for modest changes, though the physics are poorly understood.…”

Section: Why Is Consensus On High-end Scenarios Difficult To Achieve?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Framework for High‐End Estimates of Sea Level Rise for Stakeholder Applications

et al. 2019

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An approach to analyze high-end sea level rise is presented to provide a conceptual framework for high-end estimates as a function of time scale, thereby linking robust sea level science with stakeholder needs. Instead of developing and agreeing on a set of high-end sea level rise numbers or using an expert consultation, our effort is focused on the essential task of providing a generic conceptual framework for such discussions and demonstrating its feasibility to address this problem. In contrast, information about high-end sea level rise projections was derived previously either from a likely range emerging from the highest view of emissions in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment (currently the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario) or from independent ad hoc studies and expert solicitations. Ideally, users need high-end sea level information representing the upper tail of a single joint sea level frequency distribution, which considers all plausible yet unknown emission scenarios as well as involved physical mechanisms and natural variability of sea level, but this is not possible. In the absence of such information we propose a framework that would infer the required information from explicit conditional statements (lines of evidence) in combination with upper (plausible) physical bounds. This approach acknowledges the growing uncertainty in respective estimates with increasing time scale. It also allows consideration of the various levels of risk aversion of the diverse stakeholders who make coastal policy and adaptation decisions, while maintaining scientific rigor.

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How warm was Greenland during the last interglacial period?

Cited by 43 publications

References 70 publications

A low climate threshold for south Greenland Ice Sheet demise during the Late Pleistocene

A low climate threshold for south Greenland Ice Sheet demise during the Late Pleistocene

Last Interglacial climate and sea-level evolution from a coupled ice sheet–climate model

Framework for High‐End Estimates of Sea Level Rise for Stakeholder Applications

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