How unusual is the 2012–2014 California drought?

Griffin, Daniel; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.

doi:10.1002/2014gl062433

Cited by 771 publications

(626 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…Recent drought conditions in California have been particularly intense and have been analyzed using instrumental data, paleoclimatic proxies, and modeling approaches [Diffenbaugh et al, 2015;Griffin and Anchukaitis, 2014;Funk et al, 2014;Swain et al, 2014]. A recent article in GRL by Griffin and Anchukaitis [2014] (hereafter GA14) produced the important finding that the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for central and southern California during 2014 was likely the most severe in 1200+ years (residual-based error analysis also showed a number of other drought years that were similar in magnitude to 2014). The purpose of this article is to evaluate the impacts of a spatial averaging error in their calculation of California's instrumental PDSI value and to expand on the recent drought from the perspective of extreme value theory.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Revisiting the recent California drought as an extreme value

Robeson

2015

Geophysical Research Letters

191

174

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Spatially weighted averages of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) over central and southern California show that the 1 year 2014 drought was not as severe as previously reported, but it still is the most severe in the 1895–2014 instrumental record. Using the typical adjustment procedure that matches the mean and standard deviation of tree ring PDSI values to those of instrumental data shows over 10 droughts from 800 to 2006 that were more severe than the 1 year 2014 drought, with the 2014 drought having a return period of 140–180 years. Quantile mapping allows for a closer correspondence between instrumental and tree ring PDSI probability distributions and produces return periods of 700–900 years for the 1 year 2014 drought. Associated cumulative 3 and 4 year droughts, however, are estimated to be much more severe. The 2012–2014 drought is nearly a 10,000 year event, while the 2012–2015 drought has an almost incalculable return period and is completely without precedent.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Revisiting the recent California drought as an extreme value

Robeson

2015

Geophysical Research Letters

191

174

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“…California recently experienced a 5-year drought (2012 to 2016) with its highest air and water temperatures on record, and anomalous warm ocean conditions. Examining how salmonid populations respond to climate variability will provide insights into the vulnerability of these species to new climate regimes across watershedestuary-ocean ecosystems (Griffin and Anchukaitis 2014;Williams et al 2015;Johnson and Lindley 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Science Advancements Key to Increasing Management Value of Life Stage Monitoring Networks for Endangered Sacramento River Winter-Run Chinook Salmon in California

Johnson¹,

Windell²,

Brandes³

et al. 2017

SFEWS

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A robust monitoring network that provides quantitative information about the status of imperiled species at key life stages and geographic locations over time is fundamental for sustainable management of fisheries resources. For anadromous species, management actions in one geographic domain can substantially affect abundance of subsequent life stages that span broad geographic regions. Quantitative metrics (e.g., abundance, movement, survival, life history diversity, and condition) at multiple life stages are needed to inform how management actions (e.g., hatcheries, harvest, hydrology, and habitat restoration) influence salmon population dynamics. The existing monitoring network for endangered Sacramento River winterrun Chinook Salmon (SRWRC, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in California's Central Valley was compared to conceptual models developed for each life stage and geographic region of the life cycle to identify relevant SRWRC metrics. We concluded that the current monitoring network was insufficient to diagnose when (life stage) and where (geographic domain) chronic or episodic reductions in SRWRC cohorts occur, precluding within-and among-year comparisons. The strongest quantitative data exist in the Upper Sacramento River, where abundance estimates are generated for adult spawners and emigrating juveniles. However, once SRWRC leave the upper river, our knowledge of their identity,

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“…In a region characterized by extended periods of drought (Griffin and Anchukaitis 2014), our results obtained during a representative dry weather period suggest that southern California salt marshes may be characterized by balanced sediment budgets for most of the time. When rainfall is highly concentrated, the effects of discharge and water levels on landward total sediment fluxes may be amplified and enhance geomorphic stability in light of SLR.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 78%

Balanced Sediment Fluxes in Southern California’s Mediterranean-Climate Zone Salt Marshes

Rosencranz

Ganju

Ambrose

et al. 2015

Estuaries and Coasts

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Salt marsh elevation and geomorphic stability depends on mineral sedimentation. Many Mediterraneanclimate salt marshes along southern California, USA coast import sediment during El Niño storm events, but sediment fluxes and mechanisms during dry weather are potentially important for marsh stability. We calculated tidal creek sediment fluxes within a highly modified, sediment-starved, 1.5-km 2 salt marsh (Seal Beach) and a less modified 1-km 2 marsh (Mugu) with fluvial sediment supply. We measured salt marsh plain suspended sediment concentration and vertical accretion using single stage samplers and marker horizons. At Seal Beach, a 2014 storm yielded 39 and 28 g/s mean sediment fluxes and imported 12,000 and 8800 kg in a western and eastern channel. Western channel storm imports offset 8700 kg exported during 2 months of dry weather, while eastern channel storm imports augmented 9200 kg imported during dry weather. During the storm at Mugu, suspended sediment concentrations on the marsh plain increased by a factor of four; accretion was 1-2 mm near creek levees. An exceptionally high tide sequence yielded 4.4 g/s mean sediment flux, importing 1700 kg: 20 % of Mugu's dry weather fluxes. Overall, low sediment fluxes were observed, suggesting that these salt marshes are geomorphically stable during dry weather conditions. Results suggest storms and high lunar tides may play large roles, importing sediment and maintaining dry weather sediment flux balances for southern California salt marshes. However, under future climate change and sea level rise scenarios, results suggest that balanced sediment fluxes lead to marsh elevational instability based on estimated mineral sediment deficits.

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How unusual is the 2012–2014 California drought?

Cited by 771 publications

References 34 publications

Revisiting the recent California drought as an extreme value

Revisiting the recent California drought as an extreme value

Science Advancements Key to Increasing Management Value of Life Stage Monitoring Networks for Endangered Sacramento River Winter-Run Chinook Salmon in California

Balanced Sediment Fluxes in Southern California’s Mediterranean-Climate Zone Salt Marshes

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