How Unexpected Was the 2022 Summertime Heat Extremes in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River?

Abstract

The 2022 heatwave in China featured record‐shattering high temperatures, raising questions about its origin and possible link to global warming. Here we show that the maximum temperature anomalies over Central China reached 13.1°C in the summer of 2022, which is ∼4.2σ above the 1981–2010 mean with a return period of tens of thousands of years. Our results suggested that the persistent high‐pressure anomaly and associated extreme heatwave likely resulted mainly from internal variability, although anthropogenic warming has increased the probability of such extreme heatwaves. We also estimate that the 2022‐like heatwave becomes six to seven times more likely under persistent high‐pressure conditions when compared to stochastic circulation states. Due to a shift toward warmer mean temperatures and a flattening of the probability distribution function, such rare extreme heatwaves are projected to become much more common at a global warming level of 4°C, occurring once about every 8.5 years.

Was the 2022 drought in the Yangtze River Basin, China more severe than other typical drought events by considering the natural characteristics and the actual impacts?

“…In 2022, the South Asian high pressure and Western North Pacific subtropical high pressure were coupled with each other and jointly controlled the middle reaches of the YRB, so the significant positive geopotential height anomaly remained above the middle reaches of the YRB for a long time, which was conducive to the development of local subsidence (Qin et al, 2023). Hua et al (2023) (Villafuerte and Matsumoto, 2015;Peng et al, 2018). In this study, the responses of drought and wetness in the YRB to ENSO events with different lag times were analyzed in detail.…”

Warm Early Summer Compensated Reduction in Photosynthesis Caused by 2022 Late Summer Extreme Drought Over the Tibetan Plateau

“…The extreme heat and drought event in the Yangtze River Basin in China in 2022 has attracted wide attention (Hua et al., 2023; X. Li et al., 2023; Ma & Yuan, 2023; J. Wang, Yan, et al., 2023). Concurrently, the TP experienced both extreme high temperatures and low PRE during the summer of 2022, reaching levels unprecedented since 2000.…”

“…The extreme heat and drought event in the Yangtze River Basin in China in 2022 has attracted wide attention (Hua et al, 2023;X. Li et al, 2023;Ma & Yuan, 2023;.…”

“…In the summer of 2022, a global heatwave swept across countries, particularly in the northern hemisphere, where temperatures soared above 40°C, breaking the historical extreme maximum temperature (Hua et al., 2023). In June 2022, surface air temperature (TAS) surged in the middle and lower regions of the Yangtze River and Yellow River in China, and this TAS anomaly gradually got strengthened until August, with significant abnormal high temperatures occurring from the western TP to the entire Yangtze River basin (X. Li et al., 2023).…”

The Variation of Compound Warm Dry Extremes Over Eastern China and the Associated East Asian Subtropical Jet in the Boreal Summer

“…This study has emphasized on the role of the East Asian jet stream. We should also notice that the CWDEs can be directly caused by external forcing (Kumar et al., 2013), atmospheric internal variability (Deng et al., 2019) or other related fields (Hua et al., 2023), which would be investigated in the future.…”