BACKGROUND
Women with a twin gestation are at increased risk for preterm birth, and sonographic cervical length is a powerful predictor for spontaneous preterm birth. Obstetricians frequently monitor cervical length in multiple gestations; yet, the optimal method to integrate and interpret the results of serial sonographic cervical length has not been determined.
OBJECTIVE
To determine whether there are different patterns of cervical shortening in twin gestations, and whether such patterns are related to the risk of preterm birth.
STUDY DESIGN
We conducted a retrospective study of all women with twins followed in a single tertiary referral center during 2012-2014. All women underwent serial measurements of cervical length every 2-3 weeks starting from 14-18 weeks and until 28-32 weeks of gestation. Changes in cervical length were analyzed and classified into distinct patterns that were initially identified by visual inspection of all individual cases. Each pattern was then characterized by several parameters including information about when cervical shortening began, the rate of shortening, and whether a plateau was observed. Locally weighted regression mean profiles were generated to describe each pattern of cervical length over time. The association of these patterns with spontaneous preterm birth was determined. The specific characteristics of each pattern that further determined the risk of preterm birth were identified using multivariable logistic regression analysis.
RESULTS
We studied 441 women who had a total of 2,826 measurements of cervical length done. Overall, 4 main patterns of change in cervical length were identified: Pattern I - stable cervix (n=196), Pattern II - early and rapid shortening (n=18), Pattern III - late shortening (n=109), and Pattern IV – early shortening with a plateau (n=118). The rate of preterm birth at <34 weeks was lowest in cases of Pattern I (11.7%), followed by Pattern IV (14.4%) and Pattern III (20.2%), and was highest for women with Pattern II (44.4%) (p<0.001). In cases with Pattern III (late shortening), the most important factors affecting the risk of preterm birth were the shortening rate, the gestational age at the onset of cervical shortening and the initial plateau of cervical length. In the case of Pattern IV (early shortening with a plateau), it was only the new plateau at which cervical shortening stopped that was associated with the risk of preterm birth.
CONCLUSIONS
Changes in sonographic cervical length over time in twin gestations can be classified into four patterns, each associated with a different risk of preterm birth.