How to Handle the Fiscal Crisis in Greece: Empirical Evidence Based on a Survey of Economic Experts

Abstract

We asked economic experts polled by the CESifo World Economic Survey how to handle the fiscal crisis in Greece in the year 2015. The sample includes about 850 experts from 110 countries. We find systematic differences in experts’ recommendations. Our results suggest that policy advice is related to an expert's personal and country‐level attributes. Country‐level characteristics, especially credit default swaps as a measure of fiscal stability, predict views on whether Greece should exit the eurozone. An expert's educational background, age and professional affiliation predict opinions on the credit programmes of the International Monetary Fund. We propose that policymakers who seek balanced policy advice should consult experts from different countries and personal backgrounds.

Collective memories on the 2010 European debt crisis

“…example, Katsanidou and Otjes, 2016;Mink and de Haan, 2013;Mosler et al, 2019;Sinn, 2015). The salience of events in Greece might have caused a higher level of consensus among the lender and borrower countries about the situation in Greece.…”

Collective Memories on the 2010 European Debt Crisis

“…example, Katsanidou and Otjes, 2016;Mink and de Haan, 2013;Mosler et al, 2019;Sinn, 2015). The salience of events in Greece might have caused a higher level of consensus among the lender and borrower countries about the situation in Greece.…”

“…The survey includes many questions, indicating the opinion towards overall economic development from European and non-European experts such as economic growth and inflation. Furthermore, scholars used the WES to ask a limited number of one-off questions in individual survey waves (Andre et al, 2019;Boumans et al, 2018Boumans et al, , 2021Potrafke, 2020a, 2020b;Mosler et al, 2019). Our questions on the 2010 European debt crisis were included in the WES survey in August 2018.…”

Collective Memories on the 2010 European Debt Crisis

“…Furthermore, scholars used the WES to ask a limited number of one-off questions in individual survey waves. See, for example, Boumans et al (2017), Andre et al (2019), Mosler et al (2019), Gründler and Potrafke (2020a), Gründler and Potrafke (2020b). Our questions on the European debt crisis were included in the WES survey in August 2018.…”

“…The resistance of the population in Greece was large and the consequences for the population were drastic (scholars examine the public debt crisis in Greece in detail. See, for example, Mink and de Haan (2013), Katsanidou and Otjes (2015), Sinn (2015), Mosler et al (2019)). The salience of events in Greece might cause a higher level of consensus among the lender and borrower countries about the situation in Greece.…”